Early Look

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

U.S. futures are looking modestly lower to start the new month and quarter, putting behind one of the worst quarter in years for the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 (NDX) in a quarter marred by tariff uncertainty, US government spending cuts the threat of recession, and fears about a bubble brewing in artificial intelligence (AI). U.S. stocks posted their worst quarter since 2022 but rallied late Monday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite earlier reached their lowest levels since September, with traders waiting on U.S. President Donald Trump’s Wednesday announcement on reciprocal tariffs this Wednesday. The Nasdaq has fallen -14.3% from its record high, while the S&P 500 is down -8.7%. For the month (since February 28), the S&P 500 fell -5.75%, the Nasdaq declined -8.21%, and the Dow fell -4.20%. For the quarter (since December 31), the S&P 500 fell -4.59%, the Nasdaq declined -10.42%, and the Dow fell -1.28%. The best performers in the Dow Jones Industrial average in Q1 were AMGN +20%, CVX +15.78%, KO +15.49%, JNJ +15.17% and MMM +14.25% while the worst performers were CRM -19.78%, NVDA -19.72%, NKE -15.68%, AMZN -13.24% and DIS -11.3%. Uncertainty over what tariffs Trump will announce and whether they will be long lasting or subject to negotiation has added to risk aversion, with the trade levies expected to dent growth and increase inflation. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index was up 6 points to 35,624, the Shanghai Index rose 12 points to 3,348, and the Hang Seng Index gained 87 points to 23,206. In Europe, the German DAX is up 218 points to 22,381, while the FTSE 100 is up 56 points to 8,639. Upcoming catalysts this week include US ISM manufacturing today, Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement (Wed 4/2), US services ISM, (Thurs 4/3), US jobs report (Fri 4/4), Tesla’s Q1 deliveries numbers likely Wed 4/2 + TikTok decision likely to occur w/ Apr 5 being the sell-or-ban deadline). So called ‘Liberation Day’ is expected to see the announcement of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs which could come into effect as soon as April 3. Reports suggest that White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20%

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 417.86 points, or 1.00%, to 42,001.76
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -23.70 points, or 0.14%, to 17,299.29
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -11.37 points, or 0.56% to 2,011.91

• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, March-final…prior 49.8
• 10:00 AM ET                Construction Spending M/M for February…est. +0.3%
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for March…est. 49.5 (prior 50.3)
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Prices Paid for March…est. 65.0 (prior 62.4)
• 10:00 AM ET                JOLTs Job Openings for February…est. 7.616M (prior 7.74M)
• 10:30 AM ET                Dallas Fed Services for March…prior 8.2
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: LPRO NCNO SPWH

• In casinos (WYNN, LVS, MLCO, MGM), Macau’s gaming bureau reported March gross revenue from games of fortune in the region was up 0.8% year-over-year to 19.659B patacas, vs. the Street forecast of flat and down from +6.8% in February.
• Li Auto (LI) reported vehicle deliveries for March of 36,674 units vs. 28,984 y/y.
• NIO Inc. (NIO) reported deliveries rose 14% m/m for March of 15,039 vs. 13,192 m/m.
• PVH Corp. (PVH) Q4 EPS $3.27 above consensus $3.21 and revs fell -4.8% y/y to $2.37B vs. est. $2.33B which exceeded guidance of a decrease of 6% to 7% (decrease 4% to 5% on a constant currency basis); sees Q1 revs down -2% to flat and Q1 EPS $2.10-$2.25 vs. est. $2.24; guides 2025 revs flat to increase slightly on a constant currency basis y/y and operating margin to be flat to increase slightly.
• Tesla’s (TSLA) sale of new cars in Denmark fell by 65.6% in March from the same month a year ago to 593 vehicles, registration data from Mobility Denmark show
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral and raised tgt to $423 from $384.

• In oil, Brent steadied after Trump dialed back his comments on Russia that triggered the biggest price jump since January, while markets count down to the arrival of tariffs.
• Chevron (CVX) announces sale of majority interest in its East Texas Gas Assets; the transaction is anticipated to generate over $1.2B in value to Chevron at current Henry Hub prices through the multi-year capital carry, retained working interest, and overriding royalty interest.
• Excelerate Energy (EE) 7M share Spot Secondary priced at $26.50.

• Visa Inc. (V) authorizes $375M deposit into U.S. litigation escrow account; as-converted Class B-1 common stock share count reduced by about 21,297 from 7.57M to 7.55M; as-converted Class B-2 common stock share count was reduced by about 1.06M from 185.7M to 184.6M.
• W. R. Berkley (WRB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America.

• Drugmakers are lobbying U.S. President Donald Trump to phase in tariffs on imported pharmaceutical products in hopes of reducing the sting from the charges and to allow time to shift manufacturing – Reuters.

• Progress Software (PRGS) Q1 adj EPS $1.31 vs. est. $1.06 as revs rose 29% y/y to $238.0M vs. est. $235.6M; Q1 software License revenue $58.4M, -8.8% y/y; while total operating expenses $159.4M, +36% y/y; guides Q2 EPS and revs above consensus and raises FY EPS to $5.25-$5.37 from prior $5.00-$5.12 (est. $5.06) and boosts FY adj operating margin to 38% from 37%-38% view.
• Spire Global (SPIR) Q4 adj EPS loss ($-2.21) vs. est. loss (-$2.35); sees Q1 adjusted EPS loss (65c)-(63c), vs. est. loss (-$0.46) and sees Q1 revenue $22M-$24M vs. est. $28.2M; for 2025, sees rev, excluding held-for-sale maritime business, to grow at about 12% to 17%.