Early Look

Thursday, April 6, 2023

U.S. futures are flattish heading into the final trading day of the week with U.S. stock markets closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday while fixed income markets will close early at 2:00 PM ET. A string of weaker-than-expected data releases from the U.S. this week has put the risk of a recession back into focus for investors who will be watching initial jobless claims closely today. But things will be very interesting tomorrow as the monthly nonfarm payroll data is still expected to be released Friday morning with estimates of 240K nonfarm payroll adds, 215K private payrolls, unemployment to steady at 3.6% and average hourly earnings to rise +0.3% m/m. The 10-year Treasury yield comes into the day down for 6-consecutive days, longest losing streak since March 2020, ending Wednesday at 3.285%. In central bank news, the Reserve Bank of India joined Canadian and Australian central banks in unexpectedly leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged while pledging to hike again if needed. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index falls -340 points to 27,472, the Shanghai Index was flat at 3,312, and the Hang Seng Index gained 56 points to 20,331. Meanwhile, European stocks are on course to end the holiday-shortened trading week on a positive note as the German DAX is up 45 points to 15,566, while the FTSE 100 rises 55 points to 7,717. Expects light volumes into the Holiday weekend, with this and next week Spring Break for schools.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -10.22 points, or 0.25%, to 4,090.38.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 80.34 points, or 0.24%, to 33,482.72.

·     The Nasdaq Composite slumped -129.47 points, or 1.07%, to 11,966.86.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -17.52 points, or 0.99% to 1,752.13.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:30 AM ET           Challenger Layoffs for March

·     8:30 AM ET           Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 200K

·     8:30 AM ET           Continuing Claims…est. 1.699M

·     10:00 AM ET         Fed’s Bullard discusses the Economic Outlook

·     10:30 AM ET         Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: LW RPM STZ

·     Earnings After the Close: APLD LEVI WDFC

World News

·     China pledges ‘resolute’ answer to US meeting with Taiwan leader. China’s Foreign Ministry condemned Thursday the recent meeting between United States House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

·     @KobeissiLetter tweeted yesterday: US Personal Savings Rate, by Year: 1960: 10.1%, in 1970: 12.8%, in 1980: 11.1%, in 1985: 9.2%, in 1990: 8.4%, in 1995: 7.0%, in 2000: 4.7%, in 2005: 2.9%, in 2010: 6.2%, in 2015: 7.5%, in 2020: 16.8%, in 2022: 3.7%, their lowest since 2007.

·     The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -1.7 vs -23.1 last week. Bulls rise to 33.3% from 22.5%, Neutrals fall to 31.6% from 31.9%, Bears fall to 35% from 45.6%.

·     House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told Bloomberg he is “very concerned” about reaching a deal with Democrats on the debt limit as the country inches closer to a possible payment default.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Costco Wholesale (COST) shares slide after hours as U.S. Comparable sales fell -1.5% for the five weeks ended April 2, 2023; March U.S. comp sales ex-gas, FX +0.9%; overall total March comps fell -1.1%; e-commerce sales were down (-12.7%).

·     Buckle (BKE) reported comparable sales for March of -10.1% vs. -9.7% y/y; comparable sales -10.1% vs. -9.7% y/y; net sales $113.4 million, -9.2% y/y.

·     Fox Factory (FOXF) reaffirms guidance for Q1, FY23 after CFO depart.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Airbus (EADSY) CEO signed agreements to open a new assembly line in China, doubling its capacity in the world’s second-largest aviation market, while formalizing earlier orders for passenger jets.

·     Air Lease Corp (AL) said aircraft investments in quarter totaled about $1.4 bln; as of March 31, Co’s fleet had 437 owned aircraft, 86 managed aircraft.

·     RPM (RPM) Q3 adjusted EPS $0.37 vs. est. $0.31; Q3 revs $1.52B vs. est. $1.47B.

·     Shell (SHEL) said its 1Q adjusted group operating result forecast is $10.7 billion, 18% higher than its previous estimates, driven by better-than-expected integrated gas and refining results.

Financials

·     CBOE Global markets (CBOE) March futures avg daily volume +36.3%; March index options avg daily volume +67.9%; March multiply-listed options avg daily volume +1.8%.

·     The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver of the former Signature Bank, New York, NY, and Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, CA, will undertake a marketing process to sell the securities portfolios retained from the two receiverships. The face values of the two portfolios are approximately $27 billion and $87 billion, respectively. The securities are primarily comprised of Agency MBS, Collateralized Mortgage Obligations, and Commercial MBS.

Healthcare

·     AbbVie (ABBV) cuts Q1 EPS view to $2.31-$2.41 from $2.39-$2.49 (below consensus $2.55) and cuts FY23 EPS view to $10.62-11.02, from prior guidance $10.70-$11.10 (est. $11.07).

·     Simulations Plus (SLP) 2Q EPS $0.20 vs est. $0.18, adj EBITDA $6.2Mmm vs est. $5.5Mm on revs $15.8Mm vs est. $16.1Mm, gr mgn 83%; guides FY revs $59.3-62.0Mm vs est. $60.8Mm and EPS $0.63-0.67 vs est. $0.65.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Lumentum (LITE) cuts Q3 revenue view to $380M-$384M from $430M-$460M and below consensus of $444.15M saying a network equipment manufacturer who represented more than 10 percent of our fiscal second quarter revenue informed us that due to their inventory management, they would not take the shipments we had originally projected for the quarter (Raymond James says this morning the culprit was likely CIEN).

·     Amazon’s (AMZN) $1.7B iRobot (IRBT) acquisition scrutinized by UK on competition grounds – TechCrunch reported.

·     Pinterest (PINS) mentioned positively in Barron’s saying Pinterest Is Staging a Turnaround. Why the Stock Is a Buy. https://bit.ly/3ZKnL14