Early Look

Thursday, April 10, 2025

After yesterday’s historic stock market bounce, the biggest since 2008 for the S&P 500, U.S. futures are pulling back a bit on profit taking and ahead of key inflation data later this morning. Treasury yields, which have had a massive 60-bps spike off Monday lows to highs this week, are down about -10bps this morning to 4.30% for the 10-year. Gold prices are jumping for a second day, up 1.88% or $58 to $3,137 an ounce. The Euro jumps 1.15% to highs of 1.1027 vs. the dollar; dollar index (DXY) -1% below 102. After President Trumps delay of tariffs by 90-days for countries that did not retaliate against the US tariffs boosted markets yesterday, Bloomberg this morning reported the EU may delay the implementation of its counter tariffs against the US over the 25% duties Donald Trump imposed last month on the bloc’s steel and aluminum exports. Back to data, at 8:30 am EST, March consumer price index (CPI) data expected for with Headline M/M for March est. +0.1% (prior +0.2%) and Y/Y for March est. +2.6% (prior +2.8%). On a core CPI (Ex: Food & Energy) M/M for March est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%) and Y/Y core CPI est. +3.0% (prior +3.1%). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 2,894 points or 9.13% to 34,609, the Shanghai Index rose 36 points to 3,222, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 411 points or 2% to 20,681. In Europe, the German DAX is surging 1,142 points or 5.8% to 20,813, while the FTSE 100 is up 355 points or 4.6% to 8,034.

After a brutal 4-day stretch for the market, that saw the S&P sink -12%, the Dow lose more than 4,500 points and the Nasdaq was down more than -13%, major US averages soared on Wednesday afternoon as the S&P 500 skyrocketed 9.52% in a kneejerk reaction to Trump’s announcement to put a 90-day pause on some of the lofty ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for most countries (while raising China tariffs further). U.S. stocks staged a historic rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average advancing 2,962.86 points, or 7.87% and posted its biggest advance since March 2020 (was 6th biggest % daily gain on record). The Nasdaq composite closes up 12.16%, the biggest one-day percentage gain since January 3rd, 2001, and the 2nd largest on record. The S&P 500 surged 9.52% for its 3rd biggest one-day gain since WWII (other two better were +11.58% on 10/13/08 and +10.79% on 10/28/08). The president said more than 75 countries contacted U.S. officials to negotiate after he unveiled his new tariffs last week.

So this is where things stand, one week after Liberation Day as per the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos: 1) Tariffs on China will go to 125% from 104% on Wednesday and from 20% on Tuesday, 2) Tariffs on all other countries (except Russia, North Korea, and Belarus) will be at 10% for the next 90 days, 3) Tariffs on steel and aluminum are 25%, 4) Tariffs on imported cars are 25%, and 5) Canada and Mexico face tariffs of 25% on goods that aren’t eligible for USMCA.

In a not so inspiring market stat after yesterday’s market surge, ZaStocks tweets: “Today marked the second largest single day gain in Nasdaq history. The top three spots? 1. 1/3/2001, +14.17%, 2. 4/9/2025, +12%, and 3. 10/13/2008, +11.81%. In both other instances, the Nasdaq ended up making a new low.” For the CBOE Volatility index (VIX), @VIXandMore tweeted: “Top $VIX 1-day percentage declines now: 1) yesterday’s -36.4% 4/9/25 tariff reversal, followed by 2) -29.6% 5/10/10 post flash crash, 3) the -28.2% 8/6/24 Yen carry move, 4) the -27.0% 8/9/11 Greece debt, 5) the -25.9% 6/15/06 Fed inflation worries, 6) -25.9% 4/27/17 Macro tops LePen, and 7) 24.7% 10/20/08 GFC.”

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 2,962.86 points, or 7.87%, to 40,608.45
• The Nasdaq Composite surged 1,857.06 points, or 12.16%, to 17,124.97
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 152.44 points, or 8.66% to 1,913.15

• 8:30 AM EST                Continuing Claims…est. 1.882M
• 8:30 AM EST                Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline M/M for March…est. +0.1% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM EST                Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline Y/Y for March…est. +2.6% (prior +2.8%)
• 8:30 AM EST                Core CPI Ex: Food & Energy M/M for March…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM EST                Core CPI Ex: Food &Energy Y/Y for March…est. +3.0% (prior +3.1%)
• 9:30 AM EST                Fed’s Logan Gives Welcome Remarks
• 10:30 AM EST              Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM EST              Cleveland Fed CPI for March…prior +0.3%
• 12:00 PM EST WASDE crop report for April
• 12:00 PM EST              Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Economic Club of NY
• 1:00 PM EST US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes
• 2:00 PM EST                Federal budget for March

• Earnings After the Close: None

• Needham 24th Annual Virtual Healthcare Conference, 4/7-4/10
• Wells Fargo Software Symposium, 4/9-4/10

• China Consumer prices (CPI) in China slid -0.1% year on year in March, remaining in deflationary territory after having contracted 0.7% in February vs. est. for flat reading. Producer prices (PPI) saw a larger-than-expected decline, falling -2.5% year on year in March, the largest contraction since November 2024, and also marked the 29th straight month that producer prices have been in deflationary territory v. est. -2.3%.
• Goldman Sachs lowered its forecasts for China’s GDP growth to 4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, down from 4.5% and 4.0% previously, citing the effects of tariffs.
• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -30.4 vs -40.1 last week. Bulls rise to 28.5% from 21.8%, Neutrals fall to 12.5% from 16.3%, Bears fall to 58.9% from 61.9%.

• General Motors (GM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS and cut tgt to $51 from $64 and cut estimates to reflect the impact of tariffs on the company’s cost structure as well as the impact to auto demand.
• CarMax (KMX) Q4 EPS $0.58 vs. est. $0.65; Q4 retail used unit sales increased 6.2% and comparable store used unit sales increased 5.1%; wholesale units increased 3.1%; Q4 revs $6.0B vs. est. $5,963B.
• PriceSmart (PSMT) Q2 EPS $1.45 vs est. $1.40, adj EBITDA $87Mm vs est. $87.41Mm on sales $1.335B vs est. $1.359B, comps +6.7%.
• The Buckle, Inc. (BKE) reports 3.7% increase in comparable store net sales for March and said March net sales increased 4.5% to $109.1M.

• Vale (VALE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America.

• Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America.
• Lazard, Inc. (LAZ) preliminary assets under management (“AUM”) as of March 31, 2025 totaled approximately $227.4 billion. The month’s AUM included market depreciation of $5.4 billion, net outflows of $3.1 billion and foreign exchange appreciation of $3.1 billion.
• Victory Capital (VCTR) reported Total Assets Under Management of $167.5 billion, Other Assets of $4.0 billion, and Total Client Assets of $171.4 billion, as of March 31, 2025.

• Keros Therapeutics (KROS) rises after saying its board had authorized a stockholder rights plan, also known as a “poison pill”, in response to the rapid accumulation of co’s stock by some investors; the co also launches a process to evaluate strategic alternatives, including a possible sale.

• Amtech (ASYS) cuts Q2 revenue view to $15M-$16M from $21M-$23M saying its Thermal Processing Solutions Segment experienced a customer dispute during its fiscal second quarter. The dispute involves a previously cancelled order and results in the shipping delay of a separate order in the amount of approximately $4.9M.
• Taiwan Semi (TSM) said Q1 revs jumped 42% to T$839.3 billion ($25.6 billion), slightly above the T$835.7 billion estimate and in line with company guidance of $25B-$26B; the co had said in February that revenue was likely to come in at the lower end of that range due to a $161M impact from an earthquake in Taiwan.