Early Look

Thursday, April 13, 2023

U.S. stock futures edge higher as investors digested inflation data and parsed comments from policymakers to assess when the Federal Reserve would end its era of aggressive rate hikes. Stocks slipped late Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting revealed concern among several members of the FOMC regarding the regional bank liquidity crisis. The minutes followed a cooler-than-expected inflation report but didn’t change expectations for another 25-bps rate hike at the May Fed meeting. Next up for markets, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March expected at 8:30 AM ET. Estimates for March PPI M/M are for unchanged reading (prior -0.1%) and headline Producer Price Index (PPI) Y/Y to rise +3.0% (prior +4.6%). On a core basis, or Ex: Food & Energy, PPI M/M est. +0.3% (prior 0%) and on a Y/Y basis to rise +3.4% (prior +4.4%). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 74 points to 28,156, the Shanghai Index fell -8 points to 3,318, and the Hang Seng Index rose 34 points to 20,344. In Europe, the German DAX is down -12 points to 15,690, while the FTSE 100 is flat at 7,825. The euro is the strongest vs the dollar in a year. Earnings right around the corner, kicking off tomorrow morning with big banks, while airlines DAL rises this morning on better guidance.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -16.82 points, or 0.41%, to 4,092.12.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid -37.57 points, or 0.11%, to 33,647.22.

·     The Nasdaq Composite slumped -102.54 points, or 0.85%, to 11,929.34.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -12.89 points, or 0.72% to 1,773.40.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET            Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 232K (prior 228K)

·     8:30 AM ET            Continuing Claims…est. 1.814M (prior 1.823M)

·     8:30 AM ET            Producer Price Index (PPI) M/M for March…est. 0.0% (prior -0.1%)

·     8:30 AM ET            Producer Price Index (PPI) Y/Y for March…est. +3.0% (prior +4.6%)

·     8:30 AM ET            PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for March…est. +0.3% (prior 0%)

·     8:30 AM ET            PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for March…et. +3.4% (prior +4.4%)

·     10:30 AM ET          Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·     1:00 PM ET             U.S. Treasury to sell $18B in 30-year notes.

World News

·     China March Trade Balance showed +88.19b vs +$39.2b consensus; Exports: +14.8% y/y vs -7% consensus; Imports: -1.4% y/y vs -5% consensus.

·     Australia March Employment above expected; 53,006 m/m vs. 20,000 consensus; Australia March jobless rate below expected; 3.5% vs 3.6% consensus.

·     AAII Weekly sentiment data: Neutral became the top sentiment (39.5%) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (26.1%); bearish became the middle sentiment (34.5%; Bull-Bear Spread was -8.4%.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Rent-The-Runway (RENT) 4Q EPS ($0.40) vs est. ($0.51) on revs $68.4Mm vs est. $75.2Mm, adj EBITDA $7.1Mm vs est. $6.6Mm, gr mgn 44.2%; guides 1Q revs $72-74Mm vs est. $76.8Mm and adj EBITDA mgn 2-3%; sees FY revs $320-330Mm vs est. $346.4Mm, ending active subs growth more than 25%, adj EBITDA mgn 7-8%, yr/yr reduction in cash consumption by almost 50%.

·     Sportsman Warehouse (SPWH) 4Q adj EPS $0.33 vs est. $0.29 on revs $379.3Mm vs est. $380Mm, adj EBITDA $28.9Mm vs est. $24.6Mm; guides 1Q net sales $265-270Mm vs est. $316.7Mm, comps -19% to -17%, adj EPS ($0.40)-($0.35) vs est. $0.03, cites weak macro and inflation as weighing on consumer discretionary spending; announces CEO Jon Barker to retire.

·     Chinese ride hailing giant Didi Global said that it is working with Chinese carmakers to develop its own robotaxis, which it aims to put into service by 2025, revealing a concept one with robotic arms it called “Didi Neuron”.

·     Harley-Davidson (HOG) says CFO to step down; David Viney to serve in interim role.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Delta Airlines (DAL) Q1 EPS adj EPS $0.25 vs. est. $0.30l Q1 revs vs. est. $11.88B vs. est. $11.99B; guides Q2 EPS $2.00-$2.25 vs. est. $1.61 and still sees year EPS $5.00-$6.00 vs. est. $5.37.

·     Chevron (CVX) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank.

·     EOG Resources (EOG) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank.

·     Exxon Mobil (XOM) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Scotiabank.

Financials

·     AllianceBernstein L.P. (AB) preliminary assets under management increased to $676 billion during March 2023 from $665 billion at the end of February. The 2% AUM increase was driven by market appreciation, partially offset by firm-wide net outflows.

·     Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN) preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1,422.1 billion on March 31, 2023, compared to $1,416.5 billion at February 28, 2023. This month’s increase in AUM reflected the impact of positive markets.

·     Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM) preliminary assets under management as of March 31, 2023, totaling $138.5 billion. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $67.0 billion of total firm AUM, while separate accounts accounted for $71.5 billion.

·     Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1,483.0 billion, an increase of 1.7% versus the previous month-end. The firm experienced net long-term inflows of $0.5 billion in the month. Non-management fee earning net inflows were $1.0 billion and money market net outflows were $3.8 billion.

·     Lazard Ltd (LAZ) preliminary assets under management as of March 31, 2023, totaled approximately $232.1 billion. The month’s AUM included market appreciation of $2.8 billion, net inflows of $2.8 billion, which includes approximately $3.9 billion from the acquisition of Truvvo Partners, and foreign exchange appreciation of $2.3 billion.

·     Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. (VRTS) preliminary assets under management of $154.8 billion as of March 31, 2023. The increase from December 31, 2022, primarily reflected market appreciation and net inflows in retail separate accounts, partially offset by net outflows in open-end funds and institutional accounts.

Healthcare

·     Reviewers at the Food and Drug Administration were leaning toward rejecting a closely watched gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy made by Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), prompting a top official to intervene earlier this year, according to three people with direct knowledge of the agency deliberations. – STAT News reported https://bit.ly/3MFaC6z

·     Oncocyte (OCX) announced a reduction in force involving approximately 20% of its workforce, which management believes will extend Oncocyte’s cash runway in 2024.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     SoftBank Group Corp has moved to sell almost all its remaining shares in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA), the Financial Times reported.

·     Apple Inc (AAPL) is in talks with suppliers to make MacBooks in Thailand as part of the company’s ongoing efforts to expand its manufacturing presence beyond China, Nikkei reported.

·     IBM (IBM) is weighing a sale of its weather business, the Wall Street Journal reported saying if a deal should happen, private equity would be the most likely buyer in a transaction that could be valued at over $1B.