Morning Preview: April 25, 2025

Auto PostDaily Market Report

Early Look

Friday, April 25, 2025

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

-196.00

0.49%

40,066

S&P 500

-13.25

0.24%

5,498

Nasdaq

-58.50

0.30%

19,263

 

 

U.S. stock futures are slipping, erasing overnight gains, with as major averages attempting a 4-day win streak (would be first since mid-January) as trade tensions cool and Fed officials point to possible early rate cuts. The S&P 500 officially exited correction territory on Thursday and has now made back a substantial portion of the year’s losses, closing Thursday down -6.7% in 2025 after being down as much as -17% on April 8. Tech shares soared on Thursday with Nasdaq rising 2.74% and it is 5.4% higher this week amid strength in Mega cap tech and semis recovering. Nasdaq futures got another boost last night after a better earnings report by GOOGL (shares +5% overnight) and a $70B buyback announcement. In trade news overnight, Bloomberg reported China is considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports including medical equipment, ethane and plane leasing. Beijing’s exemptions pushed the U.S. dollar up slightly and lifted equity markets in Hong Kong and Japan, but markets have since pulled back (Spuz flat after being up more than 40-points) as President Trump is speaking this morning. Treasury yields hold steady with 10-yr around 4.30%, gold prices fall over -1% to $3,315 an ounce, oil slips and the dollar bounces. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 666 points or 1.9% to 35,705, the Shanghai Index fell -2 points to 3,295, and the Hang Seng Index rose 70 points to 21,980. In Europe, the German DAX is up 154 points to 22,219, while the FTSE 100 is flat at 8,407.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index jumped 108.91 points, or 2.03%, to 5,484.77
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 486.83 points, or 1.23%, to 40,093.40
  • The Nasdaq Composite gained 457.99 points, or 2.74%, to 17,166.04
  • The Russell 2000 Index advanced 38.45 points, or 2.00% to 1,957.59

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 10:00 AM EST              University of Michigan Confidence, Apr-final
  • 10:00 AM EST              University of Michigan 1yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, Apr-final
  • 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: ABBV AN AON AVTR CHTR CL CNC EAF GNTX HCA LAZ LYB MOG.A POR PSX RITM SAIA SLB STEL SXT TNET VRTS

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

-0.57

62.22

Brent

-0.34

66.21

Gold

-32.50

3,316.10

EUR/USD

-0.0035

1.1354

JPY/USD

0.77

143.49

10-Year Note

-0.002

4.303%

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Boston Beer (SAM) Q1 EPS rose 108% y/y to $2.16 vs. est. $0.62; Q1 revs rose 6.5% y/y to $453.9M vs. est. $434.4M; Q1 Depletions decreased 1% and shipments increased 5.3%; Q1 gross margin of 48.3% up 460 basis points year over year; estimates tariffs to have unfavorable cost impact for FY25 of about 1.25 to $1.90 eps.
  • Boyd Gaming (BYD) Q1 EPS $1.31 below consensus $1.52 and revs $991.6M vs. est. $972.62M; Q1 Total Adjusted EBITDAR was $337.5M, increasing from $330.5M y/y; said Online segment delivered strong revenue and Adjusted EBITDAR growth during the quarter.
  • Comfort Systems (FIX) Q1 EPS $4.75 vs est. $3.71 on revs $1.831B vs est. $1.766B; reported over $800Mm in sequential same-store backlog growth.
  • Skechers (SKX) shares fall; Q1 EPS $1.34 vs est. $1.17 on sales $2.412B vs est. $2.429B; withdraws FY25 annual guidance; Q1 Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales $879.4M, +6% y/y missing ests and gross margin 52% vs. 52.5% y/y; Q1 inventory $1.77B, +30% y/y, EST $1.54B

Energy, Industrials and Materials

  • Eastman Chemical (EMN) Q1 adj EPS $1.91 vs. est. $1.89; Q1 revs $2.29B vs. est. $2.33B; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $1.70-$1.90 vs. est. $2.16; 2Q order patterns for April remain stable with March, expect modest sequential volume increase across markets, but due to trade uncertainty, not as much as typical; increasing cost reduction target to about $75M net of inflation; reducing capital expenditures to around $550M.
  • LyondellBasell (LYB) Q1 adj EPS $0.33 vs. est. $0.43; Q1 revs $7.68B vs. est. $7.41B.
  • Republic Service Group (RSG) Q1 adj EPS $1.58 vs est. $1.53 on revs $4.01B vs est. $4.047B; Expanded first quarter net income margin 50 basis points and adjusted EBITDA margin 140 basis points.
  • Weyerhaeuser (WY) Q1 adj EPS $0.11 vs est. $0.10 on sales $1.76B vs est. $1.758B; sees Q2 timberlands adj EBITDA about $15Mm below Q1’s $167Mm.

Financials

  • Associated Banc-Corp. (ASB) Q1 EPS $0.59 vs est. $0.58 on NII $286Mm vs est. $282.42Mm, NIM 2.97%, provision for credit losses $13Mm.
  • Digital Realty (DLR) Q1 core FFO $1.77 above consensus $1.73; Q1 revs $1.41B vs. est. $1.42B; Q1 rental rate increases on renewal leases of 5.6% on a cash basis in 1Q25; signed total bookings during 1Q25 that are expected to generate $242M; Q1 record backlog of $919M; raised 2025 Core FFO per share outlook to $7.05-$7.15; maintained 2025 Constant-Currency Core FFO per share outlook of $7.05-$7.15.
  • Hartford Financial (HIG) Q1 core EPS $2.20 vs est. $2.15; Q1 adj net income $639M vs. est. $629.1M; Net income ROE for the trailing 12 months of 18.8% and core earnings ROE of 16.2%; Property & Casualty (P&C) written premiums increased by 9% in Q1; and Q1 Book value $57.07.
  • Kinsale Capital (KNSL) Q1 adj EPS $3.71 vs est. $3.24 on gross premiums written $454.275Mm vs est. $506.03Mm, expense ratio 20%, combined ratio 82.1%.
  • Principal Financial Group (PFG) Q1 EPS $1.91 vs. est. $1.83; Q1 assets under management of $718B which is included in assets under administration of $1.7 trillion. Reports book value per common share of $49.85 vs. $49.01 last quarter; Q1 Life Insurance business market premium and fees increased 20%.
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT) files prospectus supplement relates to registration of potential offer, resale by selling stockholder of up to 8.2M shares.
  • SLM Corp. (SLM) Q1 EPS $1.40 vs. consensus $1.18; Q1 $22.9B of average loans outstanding in Q1, up 7%; backs FY25 EPS view $3.00-$3.10, consensus $3.09.
  • SouthState Corp. (SSB) Q1 adj EPS $2.15 vs est. $1.55 on NII $545Mm vs est. $526.1Mm.

Healthcare

  • Encompass Healthcare (EHC) Q1 adj EPS $1.37 vs est. $1.19 on revs $1.46B vs est. $1.431B; guides FY revs $5.8-5.9B vs prior $5.85-5.925B and est. $5.858B, adj EBITDA $1.16-1.2B vs prior $1.185-1.22B and est. $1.185B and adj EPS $4.67-4.96 vs prior $4.85-5.10 and est. $4.81.
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) Q1 adj EPS $1.81 vs. est. $1.77; Q1 revs $6.67B vs. est. $6.81B; cut its full-year earnings outlook to $5.65-$6.05 from a prior range of $5.95-$6.35; backs FY25 product sales view $28.2B-$28.6B; Veklury sales decreased 45%, primarily due to lower COVID-19 hospitalization rates; HIV product sales, including Biktarvy, rose 6%
  • Healthpeak Properties (DOC) Q1 FFO/share $0.45 vs est. $0.46 on revs $702.9M vs est. $681.95M; reaffirms FY guide adj FFO/SHR $1.81-1.87 vs est. $1.85, merger-combined same-store cash adj NOI growth 3-4%.
  • Merit Medical (MMSI) Q1 adj EPS $0.86 vs est. $0.75 on revs $355.4Mm vs est. $352.6Mm; guides FY revs $1.47-1.49B vs est. $1.48B and adj EPS $3.29-3.42 vs est. $3.65.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Alphabet (GOOGL) shares rise 4%; board authorized the company to repurchase up to an additional $70.0B of its Class A and Class C shares; Q1 EPS $2.81 vs est. $2.01 on revs $90.23B vs est. $89.123B; cloud revs $12.26B, ad revs $66.89B, search and other revs $50.7%, services revs $77.26B.
  • Apple (AAPL) is aiming to import most iPhones it sells in the U.S. from India by the end of 2026, accelerating its shift away from manufacturing in China, Bloomberg reports. The goal would double its annual iPhone output in India to over 80M units, Bloomberg.
  • Intel Corp. (INTC) shares fall overnight; Q1 adj EPS $0.13 vs est. $0.01on revs $12.7B vs est. $12.3B, adj gr mgn 39.2% vs est. 36.07%; guides Q2 revs $11.2-12.4B vs est. $12.82B, adj gr mgn 36.5% vs est. 36.93% and adj EPS $$0.00 vs est. $0.06.
  • T-Mobile (TMUS) shares fall; Q1 EPS $2.58 vs. est. $2.47; Q1 revs $20.89B vs. est. $20.62B; raises core ADJ EBITDA $33.20B to $33.70B, from prior $33.10B-$33.60B, raises adj free cash flow to $17.50B-$18.00B, from $17.30B-$18.00B; maintains postpaid and capex view for year; Q1 total net customers +1.38M, +18% y/y.
  • AppFolio Inc. (APPF) Q1 adj EPS $1.21 vs est. $1.22 on revs $217.7Mm vs est. $220.42Mm; guides FY revs $920-940Mm vs. est. $935.19Mm, adj op mgn 24.5-26.5%.
  • Celestica (CLS) Q1 adj EPS $1.20 tops consensus $1.12; Q1 revs $2.65B vs. est. $2.56B; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $1.17-$1.27 above consensus $1.15 and sees Q2 revenue $2.58B-$2.73B vs. est. $2.61B; says raising its 2025 revenue outlook and EPS to $5.00 vs. est. $4.80.
  • Knowles Corp. (KN) Q1 adj EPS $0.18 in-line with consensus and revs $132.2M vs. est. $128.95M; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $0.21-$0.25 vs. est. $0.22 and revs $135M-$145M vs. est. $135.4M; said revenue outlook for the second quarter represents sequential and year over year growth of 6% and 4% respectively.
  • SS&C Technologies (SSNC) Q1 adj EPS $1.44 vs est. $1.41 on adj revs $1.515B vs est. $1.503B; guides Q2 adj revs $1.489-1.529B vs est. $1.533B, adj EPS $1.35-1.41 vs est. $1.42; sees FY adj revs $6.118-6.238B vs est. $6.193B and adj EPS $5.68-6.00 vs est. $5.85.
  • SPS Commerce (SPSC) Q1 adj EPS $1.00 vs est. $0.85, adj EBITDA $54.4Mm vs est. $50.2Mm on revs $181.5Mm vs est. $179Mm; guides Q2 revs $184.5-186.2Mm vs est. $185.01Mm, adj EBITDA $53-54.5Mm vs est. $55.63Mm and adj EPS $0.87-0.90 vs est. $0.93; sees FY revs $758.5-763Mm vs est. $758.01Mm, adj EBITDA $229.4-232.9Mm vs est. $227.3Mm and adj EPS $3.86-3.93 vs est. $3.84.
  • Verisign (VRSN) Q1 EPS $2.10 vs est. $2.11 on revs $402.3Mm vs est. $401.8Mm.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.

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