Early Look

Friday, August 19, 2022

U.S. stocks are looking at a weaker open, with the S&P dropping to its lowest levels of the week of 4,240 (below Monday’s 4,249) after trading slightly higher on Thursday. Some media reports are citing the comments from a handful of Fed officials yesterday (Bullard and Daly) for this morning’s pullback, though had no effect on markets yesterday. The dollar surged back near 2-year highs, oil prices slumped, and renewed worries about inflation after Germany reported record producer prices y/y and m/m last night could also be weighing on markets. The CME Group’s FedWatch is now indicating a 45.5% chance of a 75-basis point rate hike on September 21, up from 41% during yesterday’s trading. A lot of the recent “froth” in the market being taken out the last few days, with pullbacks in the speculative and so called “meme” related stock movers, with shares of Bed bath & Beyond (BBBY) falling over 40% this morning after a filing last night confirmed Ryan Cohen’s RC Venture LLC has no stake remaining in the Co as of August 16, 2022 (shares of AMC, GME also looking lower). Also seeing weakness in crypto, with Bitcoin prices falling over 7% to drop below $22K. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dipped -11 points to 28,930, the Shanghai Index fell -19 points to 3,258, and the Hang Seng Index edged higher 9 points to 19,773. In Europe, the German DAX is down -90 points to 13,605, while the FTSE 100 is little changed at 7,545. In earnings, shares of Deere (DE) fall on a lower outlook for the year while retailer Foot Locker (FL) rises on results.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 9.70 points, or 0.23%, to 4,283.74

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 18.72 points, or 0.06%, to 33,999.04

·     The Nasdaq Composite climbed 27.22 points, or 0.21%, to 12,965.34

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 13.41 points, or 0.68% to 2,000.73

Economic Calendar for Today

·     1:00 PM EST         Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: BKE DE FL RIOT VTSI XRAY

World News

·     German producer prices jumped at the fastest pace on record in July, surging 37.2% on the year, the biggest rise since records began in 1949, while the m/m rise of 5.3% was also the highest on record; record increases in producer prices were primarily driven by skyrocketing energy prices

·     China is widely expected to lower its benchmark lending rates on Monday, a Reuters survey showed, with a vast majority of participants predicting a deeper cut to the mortgage reference to lift the ailing property sector and the overall economy.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Home Depot (HD) announces new $15B share repurchase program

·     Foot Locker (FL) Q2 adj EPS $1.10 vs. est. $0.80; Q2 sales fell -9.2% y/y to $2.07B vs. est. $2.08B; board has determined that chair and chief executive officer roles will be separated, also effective September 1, 2022; Johnson will continue as executive chairman of board through January 31, 2023, and will step down from board at that time

·     Ross Stores (ROST) Q2 EPS $1.11 vs $1.01 estimate; Q2 revs down -4.6% y/y to $4.58B vs. est. $4.63B; Q2 comp sales fell -7% on top of a 15% gain y/y; cuts FY22 EPS view to $3.84-$4.12 from $4.34-$4.58; sees Q3 comp store sales to decline 7%-9%

·     Rivian (RIVN) says it has made the decision to discontinue the entry-level “Explore” package for its cars, according to a mail sent to customers

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Deere Inc. (DE) Q3 EPS $6.16 vs. est. $6.69; Q3 revs $14.1B vs. est. $12.78B; narrows FY22 net income view to $7B-$7.2B from $7B-$7.4B and lowers FY22 operating cash flow view to $5.3B-$5.5B from $5.6B-$6B; cuts FY22 effective tax rate view to 21%-23% from 22%-24%

·     OSI Systems (OSIS) Q4 EPS $1.96 vs. est. $1.95; Q4 revs $332.2M vs. est. $336.4M; sees FY23 EPS $6.02-$6.25 below consensus $6.30; sees FY23 revenue $1.24B-$1.275B vs. est. $1.26B

·     Maxeon Solar (MAXN) Q2 EPS loss ($2.15) vs. est. loss ($1.60); Q2 revs +35% y/y to $238.1M vs. est. $220M; sees Q3 revs $270M-$290M vs. est. $305.3M

Financials

·     Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) monthly operating data for July 2022: Net Cumulative Funded Accounts at the end of July were 22.9Mm, unchanged m/m. July Monthly Active Users (MAU) were 13.2Mm, down 0.8Mm from the end of June 2022. Assets Under Custody at the end of July were $74.6 Billion, up 16% from the end of June 2022. Net Deposits were $0.7 Billion in July, translating to a 12% annualized growth rate relative to June 2022 Assets. Total Trading Volumes in July were down slightly from June 2022. Equities were $49 Billion (down 3%), Option contracts were 67Mm (down 2%), and Cryptocurrencies were $6 Billion (down 1%).

·     Coinbase (COIN) said late yesterday it was investigating error with Coinbase pay in wallet mobile that prevents users from funding their wallet using their Coinbase account

Healthcare

·     Accelerate Diagnostics (AXDX) 17.5M share Secondary priced at $2.00

·     Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) announces FDA approval of AUVELITY(TM), the first and only oral NMDA receptor antagonist for the treatment of major depressive disorder in adults. AUVELITY is the first and only rapid-acting oral treatment approved with labeling of statistically significant improvement in depressive symptoms compared to placebo starting at one week(1) (-4)

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Applied Materials (AMAT) Q3 EPS $1.94 vs. est. $1.79; Q3 revs rise 5% y/y to $6.52B vs. est. $6.28B; ongoing supply chain challenges constrained our ability to meet demand in qtr; confident in ability to navigate macroeconomic headwinds and remain very positive about long-term strength of semiconductor market; sees Q4 EPS $1.82-$2.18 vs. est. $1.94; sees Q4 revenue $6.65B, plus/minus $400M vs. est. $6.57B

·     Bill.com (BILL) shares rise 17%; Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.03) vs. est. loss (-$0.13); Q4 revs $194.8M vs. est. $183.1M; Q4 Core Revenue Increased 151% y/y; Q4 Organic Core Revenue Increased 71% y/y; 4 Transaction Fees Increased 201% y/y; sees FY23 adj EPS $0.23-$0.28 vs. est. loss (-$0.34); sees FY23 revenue $955.5M-$973.5M vs. est. $879.68M

·     Globant (GLOB) Q2 non-IFRS EPS $1.22 vs. est. $1.19; Q2 revs rose 40.6% y/y to $429.3M vs. est. $426.46M; sees FY22 non-IFRS adjusted EPS at least $5.03 (est. $4.99) and FY22 revenue at least $1.775B (est. $1.77B)

·     Matterport Partners (MTTR) with technology distributor TD SYNNEX (SNX) to integrate 3d digital twin platform across network of 150,000 resellers

·     Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.’s (MSGE) board of directors has authorized the exploration of a potential spin-off that would focus on its traditional live entertainment and the MSG Networks businesses. The company would create a separately-traded public company