Early Look

Thursday, December 4, 2025

U.S. futures are steady overnight after stock markets advanced on Wednesday, as a flurry of economic data kept expectations elevated for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, while a fall in Microsoft’s shares held gains in check. On Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report showed U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly fell in November, keeping next week’s FOMC a “live” meeting for a 25-bps rate cut. In another data release, the Institute for Supply Management said U.S. services activity was little changed in November at 52.6 versus 52.4 in October while the prices paid component dipped but remained elevated. The reading comes ahead of the delayed personal consumption expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, on Friday. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability that the FOMC delivers a 25-basis-point rate cut at its December 9-10 meeting is now 89%. This is up sharply from one month ago when it stood at about 67%. Mag 7 stocks were flat yesterday, while Nvidia is still not really rebounding from its 15% pullback. The SmallCap Russell 2000 gained nearly 2% Wednesday alongside big gains in other interest rate sensitive stocks/sectors (i.e. homebuilders). Only utilities declined. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) scored its lowest close since October 27aruond the 16 level. Major averages finished higher for the eighth time in the last nine trading days. In earnings last night, SNOW shares fell following results while CRM advanced. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 1,163 points or 2.33% to 51,028, the Shanghai Index slipped -2 points to 3,875, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 175 points to 25,935. In Europe, the German DAX is up 184 points to 23,878, while the FTSE 100 is up 16 points to 9,708.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 408.44 points, or 0.86%, to 47,882.90
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 40.42 points, or 0.17%, to 23,454.09
• The Russell 2000 Index surged 47.15 points, or 1.91%, to 2,512.14

• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 220K
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.961M
• 10:00 AM ET                Durable Goods Orders M/M for September…
• 10:00 AM ET                Factory Orders M/M for September…est. +0.5%
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AGX CHPT COO DOCU DOMO HPE IDT IOT RBRK S SFIX SPWH TTAN ULTA ZUMZ

• Goldman Sachs 17th Annual Industrials & Autos Week, 12/1-12/4, in London
• Goldman Sachs Industrials & Materials Conference 2025, 12/3-12/4, in New York
• Goldman Sachs Japan Conference 2025, 12/1-12/5, in Tokyo
• PJM Utility 2027/2028 BRA scheduled for 12/4

• Five Below Inc. (FIVE) Q3 adj EPS $0.68 vs est $0.24 on sales $1.04B vs est $980Mm; guides Q4 sales $1.58-1.61B vs est $1.55B and adj EPS $3.36-3.54 vs est $3.10.
• Hormel Foods (HRL) Q4 adj EPS $0.32 vs. est. $0.30; Q4 revs $3.19B vs. est. $3.22B; Expects FY2026 adjusted EPS between $1.43 and $1.51, with the midpoint above analysts’ average estimate of $1.45.
• PVH Corp. (PVH) Q3 adj EPS $2.83 vs est $2.56 on revs $2.294B vs est $2.281B; guides Q4 revs up low-single-digits vs est +3.7% and adj EPS $3.20-3.35 vs est $3.61.
• Tillys (TLYS) Q3 total net sales decreased -2.7%, but comparable net sales grew 2.0%; Q3 gross profit improved to 30.5% of net sales from 25.9% y/y while net loss improved to $1.4M from $12.9M y/y; guides Q4 revs $146M-$151M and anticipates Q4 product margin improvement of 300 to 350 basis points.

• Crescent Energy (CRGY) announces sale of its non-operated DJ basin assets to a private buyer for $90M in cash.
• Methode Electronics (MEI) Q2 adj EBITDA $16.5Mm vs est $14.66Mm on sales $246.9Mm vs est $235.1Mm; reaffirms FY guide, says continues to expect positive FCF for year.
• Middleby Corporation (MIDD) entered into a definitive agreement under which it will sell a 51% stake in its Residential Kitchen business to affiliates of 26North Partners LP in a transaction valuing Residential Kitchen at $885 million. Middleby will own a 49% non-controlling interest in a new standalone joint venture holding the Residential Kitchen business, while receiving upfront cash proceeds of approximately $540 million.
• Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) said it will permanently shut down the No. 2 paper machine (W2) and kraft pulping facilities at its Wallula, WA containerboard mill. PCA will continue to operate the No. 3 paper machine (W3) and recycled pulping facilities at the mill. These actions are estimated to result in pre-tax restructuring charges of approximately $205M, mostly recorded in Q4’25 and Q1’26; expect a reduction in headcount of about 200 positions.
• Rio Tinto (RIO) CEO Trott outlined a plan to generate $5 billion to $10 billion through divestments and productivity growth; Miner sees $650 mln in productivity benefits in first 3 months; the miner in active talks with Chinalco over stake. Assets up for sale include Rio’s titanium and borates businesses.
• Rush Enterprises (RUSHA) announces new $150M stock repurchase program.

• TD Bank (TD) Q4 adj EPS C$2.18 vs. est. C$2.01; Q4 revs $C16.03B; Q4 credit losses C$982M; announced Q4 restructuring charges of $190M.
• Toast (TOST) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan as shares are down 6% year-to-date despite estimates rising 27%, as the firm sees upside potential to estimates if interchange gets regulated.

• HealthEquity (HQY) Q3 adj EPS $1.01 vs. est. $0.93, revs $322.16M vs. est. $321M and adj Ebitda $141.8M vs. est. $132.8M; Total HSA Assets grew 15% to $34.4 B in Q3; sees FY revs $1.3-$1.31B vs. est. $1.31B and adj Ebitda $555M-$565M with net income $197M-$205M; raises FY26 EPS view to $3.87-$3.95 from $3.74-$3.91.

• Snowflake (SNOW) Q3 EPS $0.35 vs. est. $0.31 on revs $1.21B vs est. $1.18B; guides Q4 product revs $1.195-1.2B, adj Outperform mgn 7%; FY26 Guidance for Product Sales $4.5B vs est. $4.4B and operating Margin 9% vs. est. 9%; says company and Anthropic announce $200M partnership to bring agentic Ai to global enterprises.
• C3.ai.com (AI) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.25) vs. est. loss (-$0.33); Q2 revs $75.1M vs. est. $74.9M; sees Q3 revenue $72M-$80M, vs. consensus $75.6M and FY26 revenue $289.5M-$309.5M, vs. consensus $298.7M; Q3 Subscription Revenue was $70.2M which constituted 93% of total revenue.
• Guidewire Software (GWRE) Q1 adj EPS $0.66 vs. est. $0.61; Q1 revs rose 27% y/y to $332.6M vs. est. $316.62M; sees Q2 revenue $339M-$345M, above consensus $336.48M while raises FY26 revenue view to $1.403B-$1.419B from $1.385B-$1.405B (est. $1.4B) and boosts its FY26 Ending ARR view to $1.22B-$1.23B from $1.21B-$1.22B.
• nCino Inc. (NCNO) Q3 adj EPS $0.31 vs est $0.20 on revs $152.163Mm vs est $146.63Mm, adj Outperform mgn 26%; guides Q4 revs $146.75-148.25Mm vs est $147.02Mm and adj EPS $0.21-0.22 vs est $0.19.
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) has increased the proposed breakup fee in its offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) to $5B from its previously proposed $2.1B, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The fee would be paid to Warner Bros. if a deal is struck but not finalized.
• Symbotic (SYM) announces prospectus also relates to offer sale from time to time by selling securityholders of up to 48.9M shares of Class A common stock.
• UiPath Inc. (PATH) Q3 adj EPS $0.16 vs est $0.15 on revs $411.1Mm vs est $392.97Mm; guides Q4 revs $462-467Mm vs est $462.91Mm and adj Outperform Inc about $140Mm vs est $138.09Mm.
• Fastly (FSLY) announces $125M convertible senior notes offering.
• Cambricon Technologies Corp. plans to more than triple its production of Ai chips in 2026, aiming to wrest market share from Huawei Technologies Co. in China and fill a void left by Nvidia Corp.’s forced exit. The Beijing-based company is preparing to deliver half a million artificial Intelligence accelerators in 2026. That includes as many as 300,000 units of its most advanced Siyuan 590 and 690 chips – Bloomberg