Early Look

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

U.S. futures are slumping overnight but have been paring losses ahead of a busy slate of economic data coming up later this morning with the delayed November jobs payrolls, unemployment rate and retail sales data at 8:30 am et, then S&P PMI data at 9:45 am et. U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 50,000 jobs in November following an anticipated decline in October, a Reuters survey of economists predicted, while the unemployment rate was estimated to come in at 4.4% last month. Investors will also scrutinize November’s Consumer Price index and Personal Consumption Expenditures index, due later this week, for further clues on monetary policy next year. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) posted its 3rd straight day of losses on Monday, falling -0.5% today – hasn’t seen a 4-day losing streak since 8/14-8/21 period. Commodity prices fall as gold eases back to $4,300 an ounce while oil prices extended declines, with Brent crude slipping below $60 a barrel for the first time since May, as indications grow that supply is outpacing demand against the backdrop of efforts to end the war in Ukraine. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -784 points to 49,383, the Shanghai Index fell -43 points to 3,824, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -393 points to 25,235. In Europe, the German DAX is down -76 points to 24,153, while the FTSE 100 declines -40 points to 9,710. US Bitcoin prices are rebounding, up about 1% to $87,000 after slumping yesterday.

U.S. stocks traded lower late in the session as technology shares weighed on the market, while the S&P 500 attempted to recover toward flat levels ahead of key jobs data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were little changed, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped about 0.5%, despite a slight majority of S&P 500 stocks trading higher.

The pullback was driven by profit-taking in technology names that have rallied for years, as investors reassess risks tied to elevated valuations and heavy capital spending. Software stocks such as Microsoft declined amid concerns that massive investments in data centers to support artificial intelligence could prove costly and generate weaker-than-expected returns. Semiconductor stocks also came under pressure, with Broadcom falling more than 5%, reflecting fears that any slowdown in data-center spending could dampen demand for AI-focused chips.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -41.49 points, or 0.09%, to 48,416.56
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -137.76 points, or 0.59%, to 23,057.41
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -20.75 points, or 0.81% to 2,530.71

• 8:30 AM ET                  Nonfarm Payrolls for November…est. 50K (prior 119K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for November…est. 45K (prior 97K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for November…est. (-5K) vs. prior (-6K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for November…est. 4.4%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/M for November…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales M/M for October…est. +0.1% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M for October…est. +0.3% (prior +0.3%)
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Dec-flash…est. 52.0 (prior 52.2)
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Dec-flash…est. 54.0 (prior 54.1)
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Dec-flash…prior 54.2
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: LEN WOR

• OECD says AI investment to keep rising & drive productivity despite global growth slowing to 2.9% in 2026 from 3.2% in ’25. Its latest data show tech industrial output up roughly 15–20% in the US and other Asia since early 2024, vs only LSD gains in overall industrial production.
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Dec P: 51.2 (est 50.3; prev 50.2); Services PMI: 52.1 (est 51.6; prev 51.3) and the Composite PMI: 52.1 (est 51.5; prev 51.2).

• Shell (SHEL) CEO Wael Sawan and his top lieutenant blocked an internal proposal to buy BP (BP) this year, resulting in the head of mergers and acquisitions to leave the company – Financial Times reported.

• Cathie Wood’s ARK funds loaded up on almost $50 million worth of shares in crypto-exposed companies, including crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), Ethereum treasury company BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and CoinDesk owner Bullish (BLSH), according to a trade notification Monday. It isn’t clear exactly when the trades were made- Barron’s
• Jack Henry (JKHY) upgraded to Outperform, raise PT to $210 (from $185) at RBC Capital as believes JKHY has a unique catalyst path that is well positioned to withstand the current market volatility. Key catalysts include 1) FISV’s Core platform consolidation opens up RFP’s for JKHY, 2) JKHY Connect Conference occurred one quarter earlier this year, which could support the timing of Core wins, as last year’s event drove ~40% of the FY25 Core wins.
• PayPal (PYPL) applied to become a bank in the US, looking to take advantage of the Trump administration’s openness to financial-technology companies entering the Banking system per Bloomberg.
• Sezzle (SEZL) announces additional $100M stock repurchase program.

• Immunome (IMNM) announces proposed $400M public offering of common stock
• Kodiak Sciences (KOD) announces 6M share offering of common stock
• Kyverna Therapeutics (KYTX) announces proposed public offering of $100M of common stock
• Organogenesis (ORGO) said it plans to begin submitting ReNu, a product to treat knee osteoarthritis pain, to US regulators by the end of 2025.
• Pfizer (PFE) sees 2026 revenue $59.5B to $62.5B, est. $61.63B (holding Investor/Analyst Day today).

• Cognex (CGNX) was upgraded to buy from sell at Goldman Sachs, with the broker noting that organic growth is at an inflection point and margin recovery is underway after several years of underperformance.
• EA Inc. (EA) forecast fiscal 2026 net bookings below analysts’ estimates on Monday, as soft consumer spending and elevated console prices weigh on demand during a fiercely competitive holiday season; sees net bookings of about $7.85 billion for the year, compared with the analysts’ average estimate of $8.06 billion, and also projected annual adjusted EBITDA of $2.76 billion, below the $2.93 billion consensus.
• KLA Corp. (KLAC) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald.
• Navan Inc. (NAVN) Q3 revs $195Mm vs est $182.04Mm, GBV $2.6B (+40% yr/yr), adj gr mgn 74%, , adj Outperform Inc $25Mm vs est $10.83Mm, adj Outperform 13%; says CFO to depart 1/9/26; guides Q4 revs $161-163Mm vs est $159.52Mm and adj Outperform Inc ($15.5)Mm – ($14.5)Mm vs est ($15.36)Mm