Early Look
Friday, December 20, 2024
|
Futures |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
|
Dow |
-172.00 |
0.40% |
42,625 |
|
S&P 500 |
-49.25 |
0.83% |
5,884 |
|
Nasdaq |
-292.50 |
1.37% |
21,086 |
U.S. stock futures are falling, led by Nasdaq futures down -1.25% ahead of key PCE inflation data, triple witching option expiration, and as a Trump-backed bill to avoid a government shutdown failed. A House GOP bill backed by President-elect Donald Trump to avert a government shutdown failed Thursday night as dozens of Republican lawmakers voted “no” along with almost all Democrats. Without a funding measure, a partial government shutdown is due to start Friday night. Meanwhile, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the core PCE price index, is due out at 8:30 AM ET, and while chances of a rate cut in January lessened following this week’s FOMC policy comments, inflation and economic reports in the next several weeks will reinforce or shake that perception. Stocks failed to rally on Thursday after tumbling on Wednesday while Bespoke Invest tweeted that: “14 straight trading days of negative daily breadth for the S&P to start the month of December”. Materials (XLB) fell a 14th straight day on Thursday though the Dow Jones Industrial Averages managed to snap its 10-day losing streak. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -111 points to 38,701, the Shanghai Index dipped -2 points to 3,368, and the Hang Seng Index fell -31 points to 19,720. In Europe, the German DAX is down -248 points to 19,721, while the FTSE 100 declines -75 points to 8,030. The US dollar index (DXY) is pulling back, but holding over 108, up from 106.85 at the start of the week, supported by the outperformance of the U.S. economy and by the FOMC’s hawkish shift on Wednesday. In stocks news, Fed-Ex (FDX) shares rise on earnings and separation of company news, NKE erases overnight gains on better earnings as a cautious outlook sink shares and in the obesity sector, NVO shares tumble on trial data, boosting competitors LLY and VKTX. Bitcoin prices fall further with stocks, down -4.8% to $92,500 (off weekly highs above $108,000).
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
- The S&P 500 Index slipped -5.08 points, or 0.09%, to 5,867.08.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 15.37 points, or 0.04%, to 42,342.24.
- The Nasdaq Composite dipped -19.93 points, or 0.10%, to 19,372.77.
- The Russell 2000 Index declined -10.03 points, or 0.45% to 2,221.50.
Economic Calendar for Today
- 8:30 AM ET Personal Income M/M for November…est. +0.4%
- 8:30 AM ET Personal Spending M/M for November…est. +0.5%
- 8:30 AM ET Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) M/M for November…est. +0.2% (prior +0.2%)
- 8:30 AM ET Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Y/Y for November…est. +2.5% (prior +2.3%)
- 8:30 AM ET Core PCE Price Index M/M for November…est. +0.2% (prior +0.3%)
- 8:30 AM ET Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for November…est. +2.9% (prior +2.8%)
- 10:00 AM ET University of Michigan Confidence, Dec-Final…est. 74.0
- 10:00 AM ET University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations…prior 2.9% and 3.1% respectively
- 1:00 PM ET Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Earnings Calendar:
- Earnings Before the Open: CCL WGO
|
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
|
Nymex |
-0.84 |
68.54 |
|
Brent |
-0.82 |
72.06 |
|
Gold |
8.90 |
2,617.00 |
|
EUR/USD |
0.0031 |
1.0393 |
|
JPY/USD |
-0.68 |
156.76 |
|
10-Year Note |
-0.03 |
4.542% |
World News
- U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Friday that the European Union may face tariffs if the bloc does not cut its growing deficit with the United States by making large oil and gas trades with the world’s largest economy. The United States already supplied 47% of the European Union’s LNG imports and 17% of its oil imports in the first quarter of 2024, according to data from EU statistics office Eurostat.
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
- Nike (NKE) Q2 EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.63; Q2 revs fell -7.7% y/y to $12.35B above est. $12.13B; North America revenue $5.18B, -7.9% y/y, EMEA revenue $3.30B, -7.4% y/y and Greater China revenue $1.71B, -8.2% y/y; Q2 inventories were $8.0B, flat compared to prior year; gross margin 43.6% vs. 44.6% y/y but above est. 43.1%. Shares reversed lower overnight after cautious outlook; sees Q3 revenue down low-double digits, Q3 gross margin down 300-350 basis points and sees Q3 SG&A dollars slightly down year-over-year.
- Mission Produce (AVO) Q4 adj EPS $0.28 vs est. $0.00, adj EBITDA $36.9Mm vs est. $21.00Mm on sales $354.4Mm vs est. $220.4Mm; guides Q1 industry volumes consistent with prior year, pricing higher yr/yr by approx 20% vs $1.40/lb.
- Scholastic (SCHL) Q2 adj EPS $1.82 vs est. $2.30, adj EBITDA $108.7Mm vs est. $109.86Mm on revs $544.6Mm vs est. $533.97Mm; reaffirms FY25 guide.
- Tesla (TSLA) is recalling certain 2024 Cybertruck 2017-2025 Model 3 and 2020-2025 Model Y vehicles. The tire pressure monitoring system (TPMS) warning light may not remain illuminated between drive cycles failing to warn the driver of low tire pressure. As such these vehicles fail to comply with the requirements of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard number 138 “Tire Pressure Monitoring Systems.”
- Foresight Autonomous Holdings Ltd. (FRSX) entered into a multi-phase agreement with SoftBank Corp. and a leading Japanese vehicle manufacturer. The collaboration aims to evaluate Eye-Net’s cutting-edge cellular vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) technology as a key component in advanced driver assistance systems.
Energy, Industrials and Materials
- Fed-Ex (FDX) shares jumped as; Q2 adj EPS $4.05 vs est. $3.90 on revs $22.0B vs est. $22.098B; guides FY revs approx flat vs prior +low-single % and est. +0.86%, adj EPS $19.00-20.00 vs prior $20.00-21.00 and es.t $19.35; reaffirms permanent cost reductions from DRIVE of $2.2B and CAPEX $5.2B; says expects to return $3.8B to shareholders this fiscal year; separately announces intent to separate FedEx Freight to separate public company.
- U.S. Steel (X) forecasts Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.25-$0.29) vs. est. $0.16; forecasts Q4 adj. EBITDA $150M, below prior forecast $225M-$275M and consensus $261.7M.
Healthcare
- Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares fell over -20% after the Ozempic and Wegovy drug maker, released the results of a clinical trial for the experimental obesity drug CagriSema. Announced headline results from REDEFINE 1, a phase 3 trial in the global REDEFINE program. REDEFINE 1 is a 68-week efficacy and safety trial investigating subcutaneous CagriSema — a fixed dose combination of cagrilintide 2.4 mg and semaglutide 2.4 mg — compared to the individual components cagrilintide 2.4 mg, semaglutide 2.4 mg and placebo, all administered once-weekly (LLY, VKTX shares jump in reaction).
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) gets FDA approval of Tryngolza for treatment of familial chylomicronemia syndrome
Technology, Media & Telecom
- TPG is in advanced talks to buy Crown Castle’s (CCI) fiber business for approximately $8B, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter. A deal for the fiber and wireless assets could be announced within weeks.
- UK’s competition watchdog, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said chip design software maker Synopsys’ (SNPS) $35 billion acquisition of Ansys (ANSS) could raise competition concerns; could reduce innovation and lead to higher prices but that it could approve the deal if those concerns are resolved.
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.