Early Look

Friday, December 23, 2022

U.S. futures creep higher as investors await another deluge of economic data ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend. After a market blitz lower yesterday on stronger GDP data and cautious commentary from well-respected hedge fund manager on the markets, the focus today is likely to be on the PCE data scheduled at 8:30 AM ET where the headline YoY is expected to fall to 5.5% from 6.0% and Core YoY falling to 4.6% from 5.0%. The Fed has a 4.8% core PCE YoY forecast for the end of 2022. Also at 8:30, personal income & spending (seen at 0.3% and 0.2% respectively) and durable goods orders (seen at -1.0%) will be released. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final data for Dec and new homes sales data for Nov is due at 10:00 AM. Investors are monitoring economic data to assess how Federal Reserve officials are likely to change interest rates next year. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -272 points or 1% to 26,235, the Shanghai Index dipped -8 points to 3,045, and the Hang Seng Index fell -86 points to 19,593. In Europe, the German DAX is up 33 points to 13,947, while the FTSE 100 is up about 10 points to 7,478. In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticked up to 3.702% from 3.669% Thursday. The U.S. bond market will close early at 2 p.m. ET. and reopen Tuesday.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -56.05 points, or 1.45%, to 3,822.39

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -348.99 points, or 1.05%, to 33,027.49

·     The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -233.25 points, or 2.18%, to 10,476.12

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -22.85 points, or 1.29% to 1,754.09

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET             Personal Income M/M for November…est. +0.3%

·     8:30 AM ET             Personal Spending M/M for November

·     8:30 AM ET             PCE Price Index M/M for November

·     8:30 AM ET             PCE Price Index Y/Y for November

·     8:30 AM ET             Core PCE Price Index M/M for November…est. +0.2%

·     8:30 AM ET             Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for November…est. +4.7%

·     8:30 AM ET             Durable Goods Orders for November…est. (-0.6%)

·     10:00 AM ET           University of Michigan Confidence, Dec-F…est. 59.1

·     10:00 AM ET           University of Michigan Inflation Expectations, Dec-F

·     10:00 AM ET           New Home Sales M/M for November

World News

·     Japan November CPI: y/y 3.8% vs 3.7% consensus; Ex-food 3.7% in-line; Ex Food/Energy 2.8% vs 2.7% consensus

·     North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea), the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff. The launch comes less than a week after the firing of two other medium-range missiles. South Korea and the United States announced that they would develop “realistic training scenarios” in the face of Pyongyang’s escalating nuclear threats.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Limoneira (LMNR) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.32) vs. est. loss (-$0.10); Q4 revs $39.7M vs. est. $33.43M; said its food service business and industry logistics continue to experience slowdown in its supply chain as well as inflationary pressures on a global basis

·     Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk said on Thursday he will not sell any more Tesla stock for about two years. While speaking in a Twitter Spaces audio chat, Musk said he foresees the economy will be in a “serious recession” in 2023 and demand for big-ticket items will be lower.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Toro Company (TTC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James

·     Seadrill Limited (SDRL) entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Aquadrill in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $958 million

Healthcare

·     Mersana Therapeutics (MRSN) announces research collaboration and commercial license agreement with Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany to develop novel immunosynthen antibody-drug conjugates

·     Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (OTLK) entered into securities purchase agreements with existing institutional and accredited investors for the purchase and sale of 28,460,831 shares of common stock at a purchase price of $0.8784 per share in a registered direct offering priced at-the-market

·     Roche (RHHBY) said its Genentech unit secured the US Food and Drug Administration’s approval for Lunsumio to treat relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Nutanix (NTNX) drops after report HPE (HPE) interest in acquisition wanes, talks end https://bit.ly/3hKUbsj

·     Charter Communications (CHTR) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo saying its network evolution and CAPEX plans are now well understood and believe the downside to CHTR has been de-risked

·     Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSM) is considering building a second plant in Japan in addition to an $8.6 billion dollar facility now under construction according to a senior Japanese lawmaker

·     Facebook parent Meta (META) has agreed to pay $725 million to settle a class action lawsuit that claimed the social media giant gave third parties access to user data without their consent.

·     Paramount (PARA) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Loop Capital