Early Look

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

U.S. futures are looking at a bounce back this morning after falling 3-consecutive days, though the S&P 500 is on track for a year-to-date gain of over 23% heading into the final trading day of the year. Stock market gains have been impressive in 2024 with the Nasdaq on track for a 29.8% advance YTD, the Dow up nearly 13% and the Russell 2000 +9.9% YTD (losing ground in December where it has lost -8.8% thus far). After a sharp rise in recent months, the 10-year yield has shot up nearly 70 basis points this year to 4.546%. In Japan, where interest rates rose twice this year as inflation accelerated, the 10-year bond yield added 47 bps in its biggest yearly jump since 2003. U.S. stock market exuberance rose after Donald Trump’s Nov. 5 election win, as traders focused on the President-elect’s plans for tax cuts and deregulation, with the surge in animal spirits propelling cryptocurrency bitcoin a 124% annual gain. U.S. Markets are open all day today on this New Year’s Eve, closed tomorrow, and then resumes trading on Thursday to kick off the New Year.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -1% to 39,894.54 overnight (but rose 19% this year); the Shanghai Index fell -55.56 points or 1.63% to settle at 3,351.76 (for the year rises 12.67%, snapping a 2-year losing streak); the Hang Seng Index rose 18.53 points or 0.09% to 20,059.95 (for the year rises 17.67%, snapping a 4-tear losing streak). Meanwhile Taiwan’s equity market is the best-performing major Asian market in 2024, as the Taiex index jumped 28% in 2024. In Europe, the German DAX was closed, while the FTSE 100 rises 53 points to 8,174. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is marginally weaker, but well on track to clock its best year since 2015, rising over 8%.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -418.48 points, or 0.97%, to 42,573.73.
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -160.55 points, or 0.83%, to 19,077.93.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -16.81 points, or 0.75% to 2,227.78.

• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                  Monthly Home Prices M/M for October
• 9:00 AM ET                  CaseShiller 20-city index M/M for October
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• China’s 2024 gross domestic product is expected to exceed 130 trillion yuan ($17.81 trillion), President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday in his New Year’s address. China’s economy has rebounded and is on an upward trajectory and the country has proactively responded to the impacts of the changing environment at home and abroad, he added.
• The US Treasury Department said in a letter to Congress it was hacked by a Chinese state-sponsored actor through a third-party software service provider.

• EHang Holdings (EH) said Tuesday it expects Q4 revenue of 162M Chinese Renminbi ($22.2M), reflecting a 187% year-over-year increase vs. two analysts surveyed by FactSet expect 136.7M Renminbi for the quarter. The company said the expected Q4 figure also represents an increase of 20% from the guidance of 135M Renminbi.
• Russian energy company Gazprom said it would pump a reduced volume of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Tuesday, the last day before the expiry of a deal that had kept the gas flowing throughout nearly three years of war.
• Cocoa and coffee are poised to close 2024 as the biggest gainers among commodities on a global supply deficit, while steel-making coal will end as the worst performer, hit by slow growth in China noted Reuters. Cocoa nearly tripled in price over 2024, far outpacing gains in other commodities after hitting a record high of $12,931 a metric ton this month. Coffee prices rose 76.2% and Natural gas soared 56% this year. Coking Steel fell -44.6%, Soybeans -24.8% were the biggest laggards.

• Soccer star Lionel Messi carried out an initial public offering of his real estate properties, valuing the portfolio at €223 million.

• ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT) announced the completion of enrollment in LOTIS-5, the Phase 3 confirmatory trial evaluating ZYNLONTA(R) (loncastuximab tesirine-lpyl) in combination with rituximab (Lonca-R) in patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (r/r DLBCL).
• Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) has submitted a new drug application to the FDA for its proprietary, selective cortisol modulator, relacorilant, to treat patients with endogenous hypercortisolism.
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) shares plummet -50% overnight after Pfizer (PFE) ended its collaboration and license agreement with the firm to develop a new gene therapy for hemophilia A.
• Verastem (VSTM) shares rise over 30% overnight after the FDA agreed to review its New Drug Application (NDA) for the treatment of adult patients with recurrent low-grade serous ovarian cancer.

• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) became the largest shareholder of South Korea’s Rainbow Robotics, the robotics company said in a regulatory filing on Tuesday. Prior to the deal, Samsung Electronics was the second-biggest shareholder of Rainbow Robotics, holding a 14.71% stake, or about 2.85 million shares.