Early Look

Friday, February 9, 2024

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	17.00	0.05%	38,842
S&P 500	6.25	0.13%	5,024
Nasdaq	49.50	0.28%	17,918

 

 

A day after the S&P (SPX) topped 5,000 for a brief (very) moment, then closed back below at 4,997.91, futures are pointing to a level above as major averages look to make it a 5^th straight week of gains. Earnings reports (DIS, ARM, MPWR, RL, TPR), a roughly in-line jobs report and remarks from policymakers on interest rate cuts helped keep markets higher on Thursday. Friday looks to be quiet on the macro front with no US economic data and few earnings results, but several stocks pointing lower following results/guidance overnight/this morning (PEP, EXPE, AFRM, PINS, PLCE). Bitcoin price surging this week, up over 3.6% this morning topping the $47,000 level. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rises 34 points to 36,897, the Shanghai Index rose 36 points to 2,865, and the Hang Seng Index fell -131 points to 15,746. In Europe, the German DAX is up 24 points to 16,988, while the FTSE 100 is up 9 points to 7,604. Reminder China markets are closed all next week for holiday. Heading into Super Bowl weekend, Bank America notes a 30-second ad during Super Bowl I (1967) was $37,500, price for Super Bowl LVIII $7,000,000 = 185x jump.

 

More than half of the S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly earnings, with 80.6% surpassing expectations, compared with a long-term average of 67%, according to LSEG data. Earnings momentum, market views of aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, AI hype, FOMO, and market momentum have all been the main drivers over the last 15 weeks. The results is a 5-week winning streak if stocks hold up today while @WayneWhaley1136 notes we are on track for “14 positive weeks out of 15, four times since 1950, last one in 72…followed by pedestrian performance. The one in 72, the only other one over +15%, this one +20%.” Goldman Sachs noted: "The S&P 500 traded north of 5k intraday for the first time ever today. It took 757 days to go from 4,800 to 4,900 and only 15 days to go from 4,900 to 5,000." The recent move has been sharp and aggressive, putting “bears” to rest during this stretch, can it continue?

 

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 48.97 points, or 0.13%, to 38,726.33.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 37.07 points, or 0.24%, to 15,793.72.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 29.34 points, or 1.50% to 1,979.70.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.12	76.34
Brent	0.00	81.63
Gold	-0.70	2,047.20
EUR/USD	-0.001	1.0766
JPY/USD	0.09	149.38
10-Year Note	-0.006	4.164%

 

• Boyd gaming (BYD) Q4 adj EPS $1.66 vs est. $1.47 on revs $954.41Mm vs est. $930.47Mm, adj EBITDAR $355.5Mm vs est. $302.74Mm.
• Capri Holdings (CPRI) Q3 adj EPS $1.20 vs est. $1.70 on revs $1.43B vs est. $1.48B, net inventory -14% y/y; not providing guidance given pending merger with Tapestry.
• Children’s Place (PLCE) lowers Q4 revenue view to $454M-$456M from $460M-$465M (est. $462.88M); said Q4 adj operating loss is expected to be (9.0%)-(8.0%) of net sales, versus the Company’s prior guidance of adjusted operating income of approximately 2% to 3% of net sales.
• Expedia (EXPE) Q4 adj EPS $1.72 vs est. $1.68, adj EBITDA $532Mm vs est. $524.5Mm, bookings $21.672B, Revs $2.887B vs est. $2.88B; announces CEO transition plan.
• Legget & Platt (LEG) Q4 adj EPS $0.26 vs. est. $0.27; Q4 revs $1.1B vs. est. $1.11B; sees FY24 adjusted EPS $1.05-$1.35 vs. est. $1.37 and guides FY24 revenue $4.35B-$4.65B below consensus $4.68B; said 2024 guidance reflects continued soft residential end market demand.

• Ammo Inc. (POWW) Q3 adj EPS $0.04 vs est. ($0.02), adj EBITDA $5.4Mm vs et $4.804Mm on revs $36Mm vs est. $34.81Mm.
• First Energy (FE) Q4 adj EPS $0.62 vs. est. $0.59; guides Q1 EPS $0.48-$0.58 vs. est. $0.68; affirmed its long-term, 6% to 8% targeted annual operating earnings per share growth rate.
• Genpact (G) Q4 adj EPS $0.82 vs est. $0.74, adj op Inc $203Mm vs est. $196.5Mm on revs $1.15B vs est. $1.122B; guides FY revs $4.57-4.61B vs est. $4.672B and adj EPS $3.00-3.03 vs est. $3.09.
• Terex Corp. (TEX) Q4 adj EPS $1.41 vs est. $1.39; Q4 revs $1.2B vs. est. $1.23B; forecasts 2024 net sales $5.10B-$5.30B, vs. est. $5.18B and guides 2024 EPS $6.85-$7.25 vs. est. $7.14.

• CleanSpark (CLSK) Q1 adj EBITDA $69.1Mm vs est. $19.61Mm on revs $73.8Mm vs est. $70.4Mm.
• Paylocity Holdings (PCTY) Q2 adj EBITDA $112.6MM on revs $298.4Mm vs est. $324.7Mm; guides Q3 revs $395-399Mm vs est. $400.69Mm and adj EBITDA $153.5-156.5Mm vs est. $153.46Mm; sees FY revs $1.384-1.389B vs est. $1.408B and adj EBITDA $474-478Mm vs est. $477.22Mm.
• Regency Centers (REG) Q4 FFO $1.02, in-line with consensus and Q4 Same Property Net Operating Income, excluding lease termination fees and the collection of receivables reserved during 2020 and 2021, increased by 1.4% compared to the same period in 2022; sees FY24 FFO $4.14-$4.20 vs. est. $4.19.
• Simon Property (SPG) authorizes a $2.0B common stock repurchase program.
• The banking-sector jitters that are rocking the likes of New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) will not be confined to the US, with the potential for defaults spreading to Europe, according to a top-performing fund manager – Bloomberg reported.

• Doximity Inc. (DOCS) Q3 EPS $0.24 vs. est. $0.23; Q3 revs $135.3M vs. est. $127.5M; sees Q4 revenue $115.9M-$116.9M vs. consensus $117.9M and FY24 revenue $473.3M-$474.3M vs. est. $467.3M; sees FY24 adjusted EBITDA $224.5M-$225.5M.
• Illumina (ILMN) Q4 adj EPS $0.14 vs. est. $0.02; Q4 revs $1.12B vs. est. $1.09B; expects Core revenue to be approx flat compared to fiscal year 2023 and Core Illumina non-GAAP operating margin to be approximately 20%.
• Metagenomi (MGX) 6.25M share IPO priced at $15.00.
• PetMed Express (PETS) said to restate previously issued financial statements citing correction of accounting errors and will have no impact on cash balance; sees Q3 sales about $65.3M compared to $58.9M y/y.
• Synlogic (SYBX) said it will cease operations and reduce its workforce by more than 90%, retaining only certain employees to assist in the strategic review and assist in the discontinuation of the study.

• Cloudflare (NET) Q4 EPS $0.15 vs est. $0.12 on revs $362.473Mm vs est. $353.1Mm; guides Q1 revs $372.5-373.5Mm vs est. $372.3Mm, adj op Inc $34-35Mm vs est. $32.64Mm and adj EPS $0.13 vs est. $0.12; sees FY revs $1.648-1.652B vs est. $1.652B, adj op Inc $154-158Mm vs est. $155.95Mm and adj EPS $0.58-0.59 vs est. $0.56.
• Impinj Inc. (PI) Q4 adj EPS $0.09 vs est. $0.02, adj EBITDA $3.0Mm vs est. ($9.05)Mm on revs $70.7Mm vs est. $68.31Mm, adj gr mgn 50.9%; guides Q1 revs $72-75Mm vs est. $70.84Mm, adj EBITDA $3.0-4.5Mm vs est. $0.7145Mm, adj EPS $0.08-0.13 vs est. $0.02.
• Liveramp Holdings (RAMP) Q3 adj EPS $0.47 vs. est. $0.40; Q3 revs $174M vs. est. $172.54M; sees Q4 revenue $158M-$162M vs. est. $158.64M and raises FY24 revenue $646M-$650M from $632M-$637M and boosts its FY24 adjusted operating income view to $102M-$103M from $97M-$100M.
• Motorola Solutions (MSI) Q4 adj EPS $3.90 vs. est. $3.63; Q4 revs $2.8B vs. est. $2.82B; sees Q1 adj EPS $2.50-$2.55, above consensus $2.37 and Q1 revenue growth roughly 8% (est. $2.3B); announces $2B share repurchase plan; said had ending backlog of $14.3B, down $88M from prior year.
• Pinterest (PINS) Q4 EPS $0.53 vs. est. $0.51; Q4 rev. $981.3M, vs. est. $990.2M; guides Q1 revs $690M-705M or up +15-17% y/y vs. est. $704M and sees operating expense $450-465M +9-13% y/y; Q4 end global MAUs 498M, up 11% y/y and Q4 global ARPU $2.00 vs $1.96 last year.
• Synaptics (SYNA) Q2 EPS $0.57 vs. est. $0.44; Q2 revs $237M vs. est. $235.24M; sees Q2 revenue $220M-$250M, vs. consensus $245.29M, Q2 gross margin 52%-54% and Q2 operating expense $94M-$98M; said expect company’s consolidated March quarter revenue to be flat relative to December quarter.
• Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) Q3 adj EPS ($0.54) vs est. $0.72 on revs $1.37B vs est. $1.337B; sees FY revs $5.27-5.32B vs est. $5.48B, adj EBITDA $313-334Mm.
• Verisign (VRSN) Q4 EPS $2.60 on revs $380.4M vs. est. $377.9M; ended Q4 with 172.7Mm .com and .net domain name registrations in the domain name base, a 0.6% drop y/y and net decrease of -1.2Mm registrations; said processed 9.0Mm new domain name registrations for .com and .net, vs. 9.7Mm y/y.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.