Early Look

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

U.S. futures are down slightly ahead of CPI Wednesday, as the consensus forecast is looking for monthly headline inflation to edge down from 0.4% in December to 0.3% in January while core inflation is expected to edge up to 0.3% (the fifth time in six months). Hopes for rate cuts face a key test in today’s report on the consumer price index for January, after Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve isn’t in a rush to change policy amid stubborn inflation and Trump-fueled uncertainty during his testimony on Capitol Hill yesterday (Powell speaks again in Washington, this time to the House Financial Services panel). At the same time, markets remain alert for more policy changes from President Trump, who is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries before the end of the week. Wall Street ended a choppy, range-bound session on Tuesday as the Dow advanced, the S&P 500 was nearly unchanged, while the tech laden Nasdaq was weaker on the day. META shares advanced for a 17^th straight day on Tuesday while TSLA slid a 5^th day and is down over -17% YTD. Gold prices remain at all-time highs amid tariff uncertainty.

Back to today’s data, economists expect the Labor Department’s CPI report to show a monthly cool-down of the headline number, to 0.3% from 0.4%, but see it holding steady at 2.9% on an annual basis. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to heat up on a monthly basis, to 0.3% from 0.2%, and to land at 3.1% year-over-year, down from December’s 3.2% print. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index advanced 162 points to 38,963, the Shanghai Index gains 28 points to 3,346, and the Hang Seng Index surges 563 points to 21,857. In Europe, The Stoxx 600 rises for a third day, setting a new intraday record in the process, boosted by solid earnings while the German DAX is up 50 points to 22,089, while the FTSE 100 is little changed at 8,780.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 123.24 points, or 0.28%, to 44,593.65.
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -70.41 points, or 0.36%, to 19,643.86.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -12.24 points, or 0.53% to 2,275.70.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/m for January…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/y for January…est. +2.9% (prior +2.9%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core CPI Ex: Food & Energy M/m for January…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core CPI Ex: Food & Energy Y/y for January…est. +3.1% (prior +3.2%)
• 10:00 AM ET                Fed’s Powell Testifies to House Financial Services
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for January…prior +0.3%
• 12:00 PM ET                Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                   Federal Budget for January…est. (-$95.5B)

• Earnings After the Close: AEIS AEMD ALB ALCO AM AMWL APP AR ASPN ATRC AYTU BROS CGNX CRBG CRSR CSCO CW CWST CXT EPRT EQIX FAF FSLY GAIN GTY GXO HOOD HUBS IRT MGM MKSI MMLP MSA MTW NBR NWE OPRT PAYC PEGA PLMR PPC PXLW QDEL QMCO QS QTWO RBBN RDDT RGLD ROL RPD SCI STAG TRAK TROX TSE TTD TXG TYL UPWK VECO VTR WH WHG WMB

• Oppenheimer 35th Annual Healthcare Life Sciences Conference, 2/11-2/12

• DoorDash (DASH) Q4 adj EBITDA $566Mm vs est. $560.9Mm on revs $2.87B vs est. $2.841B; sees Q1 adjusted EBTIDA $550M-$600M and sees Q1 marketplace GOV $22.6B-$23B; DoorDash’s marketplace processed 685 million orders worth $21.3 billion in gross value vs. est. $20.9B.
• Lyft Inc. (LYFT) Q4 EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.22; Q4 adj Ebitda $112.8M vs. est. $104.1M; $14 revs $1.55B vs. est. $1.56B; Q4 bookings $4.28B vs. est. $4.32B; guides Q1 adj Ebitda $90M-$95M vs. est. $92.9M; Q4 Rides grew 15% y/y to 219 million; announces $500M share repurchase.
• Monarch Casinos (MCRI) Q4 EPS $1.36 vs est. $1.10, adj EBITDA $47.28Mm vs est. $42.2Mm on revs $134.513Mm vs est. $129Mm.
• Zillow (Z) Q4 adj EBITDA $112Mm vs est. $107.61Mm on revs $554Mm vs est. $546.19Mm; guides Q1 revs $575-590Mm vs est. $600.3Mm and adj EBITDA $125-140Mm vs est. $159.66Mm.

• Energy Transfer (ET) Q4 EPS $0.29 vs. est. $0.37; Q4 revs $19.54B vs. est. $21.41B; Q4 adj EBITDA was $3.88B compared to $3.60B for the same period last year, an increase of 8%; Growth capital expenditures in the fourth quarter of 2024 were $1.22 billion while maintenance capital expenditures were $309 million.
• Generac (GNRC) Q4 adj EPS $2.80 vs. consensus $2.53; Q4 revenue $1.23B vs. consensus $1.25B; full-year net sales are expected to increase between 3%-7% as compared to the prior year, which includes a slight unfavorable impact from the net effect of foreign currency and completed acquisitions; expects net income margin, before deducting for non-controlling interests, to be approximately 8.0%-9.0% for the full-year 2025.

• Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM) preliminary assets under management as of January 31, 2025 totaled $168.4 billion. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $80.8 billion of total firm AUM, while separate accounts and other AUM accounted for $87.6 billion.
• Brighthouse Financial (BHF) Q4 adj EPS $5.88 vs est. $4.30 on NII $1.373B vs est. $1.319B; Estimated combined risk-based capital ratio of approximately 400%; reflects $100 million capital contribution made to Brighthouse Life Insurance Company
• Freshworks (FRSH) Q4 adj EPS $0.14 vs est. $0.10 on revs $194.571Mm vs est. $189.4Mm; guides Q1 revs $190-193Mm vs est. $192.21Mm and adj EPS $0.12-0.14 vs est. $0.12; sees FY revs $809-821Mm vs est. $813Mm and adj EPS $0.52-0.54 vs est. $0.52.
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Reddit (RDDT) announced an agreement for Intercontinental Exchange to leverage Reddit’s Data API to research, create and distribute new data and analytics products for the financial industry.
• Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) prelim month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1,902.8 billion, an increase of 3.1% versus the previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $5.1 billion in the month. Non-management fee earning net inflows was $2.3 billion and money market net inflows were $11.3 billion.
• Kite Realty Group (KRG) Q4 core FFO/share $0.52 vs est. $0.53 on revs $214.7Mm vs est. $208.5Mm; sees FY25 core FFO/share $1.98-2.04 vs est. $2.10.
• Mercury General (MCY) Q4 operating EPS $2.78 vs. $1.15 last year and revenue $1.37B vs. $1.37B last year.
• Primerica (PRI) Q4 adj EPS $5.03 vs. consensus $4.98; Q4 revs $788.1M vs. est. $772.58M; Momentum in recruiting and licensing drove life-licensed sales force to a record 151,611, up 7%; Q4 Investment and Savings Products sales up 41%; ending client asset values grew 16%; Q4 term Life net premiums grew 4%.
• Upstart Holdings (UPST) Q4 adj EPS $0.26 vs. (-$0.11) last year and est. (-$0.04); Q4 revs rose 56% y/y to $218.96M above consensus $181.92M; sees Q1 revs $200M, vs. est. $184.57M; sees FY25 revs about $1B vs. est. $839.6M; Q4 Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate: 245,663 loans were originated, totaling $2.1 billion, up 68% YoY and up 33% QoQ.
• Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) reported Total Assets Under Management (AUM) of $176.5 billion, Other Assets of $4.0 billion, and Total Client Assets of $180.5 billion, as of January 31, 2025.
• Welltower (WELL) Q4 normalized FFO $1.13 vs. consensus $1.12; Q4 revenue $2.25B vs. est. $2.19B; Q4 total portfolio year-over-year SSNOI growth of 12.8%, driven by SSNOI growth in our SHO portfolio of 23.9%; sees FY25 normalized FFO $4.79-$4.95 vs. est. $4.79; sees FY25 average blended SSNOI growth 9.25%-13.00%.

• Edward LifeSciences (EW) Q4 EPS $0.59 vs. est. $0.55; Q4 revs $1.39B vs. est. $1.36B; Q4 TAVR sales grew 6%; constant currency sales grew 5%; Q4 TMTT sales grew 88% to $105M; affirms FY25 EPS view of $2.40-$2.50 (est. $2.45) and affirms 2025 constant currency sales growth of 8%-10%.
• Exelixis (EXEL) Q4 adj EPS $0.55 vs est. $0.43 on revs $567Mm vs est. $563.4Mm; guides FY revs $2.15-2.25B vs est. $2.238B; Total operating expenses $403.5M, +1.4% y/y, vs. est. $412.5M.
• Gilead Sciences (GILD) Q4 adj EPS $1.90 vs. consensus $1.70; Q4 revs $7.6B, consensus $7.15B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $7.70-$8.10 above consensus $7.58 and sees FY25 product sales $28.2B-$28.6B; raises quarterly dividend by 2.6% to $0.79.
• Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) said it has entered into an agreement with Biogen (BIIB) to provide research and development (R&D) funding of up to $250M for litifilimab, a first-in-class investigational drug candidate in Phase 3 with demonstrated proof-of-concept in both systemic lupus erythematosus and cutaneous lupus erythematosus.

• Confluent Inc. (CFLT) Q4 adj EPS $0.09 vs est. $0.06, adj op Inc $13.6Mm vs est. $6.28Mm on revs $261.2Mm vs est. $256.8Mm; guides Q1 subscription revs $253-254Mm and adj EPS $0.06-0.07 vs est. $0.06; sees FY subscription revs $1.117-1.121B and adj EPS about $0.35 vs est. $0.35.
• Diodes Inc. (DIOD) Q4 EPS $0.27 vs. est. $0.36; Q4 revs $339.3M vs. est. $339.1M; guides Q1 revenue $323M plus or minus 3%, vs. consensus $337.46M, representing a 4.8% sequential decrease at the mid-point, due to the Chinese New Year holiday but slightly better than typical seasonality. Importantly, the midpoint of guidance represents 7% year-over-year growth.
• Pitney Bowes (PBI) Q4 adj EPS $0.32 vs est. $0.15, adj op Inc $114Mm vs est. $83.87Mm on revs $516Mm; guides FY25 revs $1.95-2.0B, adj EBIT $450-480Mm vs est. $425.48Mm and adj EPS $1.10-1.30 vs est. $1.07.
• Sensata Technologies (ST) Q4 adj EPS $0.76 vs. est. $0.75; Q4 revs $907.7M vs. est. $884.59M; sees Q1 adjusted EPS $0.70-$0.73 vs. est. $0.75; sees Q1 revenue $870M-$890M below consensus $889.2M.
• Super Micro (SMCI) guides Q2 EPS $0.58-$0.60 (est. $0.75) on revs $5.6B-$5.7B vs. consensus $5.94B; reconfirming that no previously issued financial statements require a restatement; announces private placement of $700.0 million of new 2.25% convertible senior notes due 2028 and amendments to existing 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2029; said expects to file its quarterly report on form 10-q for period ended December 31, 2024, also by February 25
• Teradata Corp. (TDC) Q4 adj EPS $0.53 vs est. $0.43 on revs $409Mm vs est. $414.94Mm, adj gr mgn 60.9%; sees Q1 revs -8% to -6% constant currency vs est. -3.77%, adj EPS $0.55-0.59 vs est. $0.63; sees FY revs -6% to -4% constant currency vs est. -3.2%, adj EPS $2.15-2.25 vs est. $2.46, FCF $250-280Mm.
• Vertiv (VRT) Q4 adj EPS $0.99 vs. consensus $0.82; Q4 revenue $2.35B vs. consensus $2.16B; sees Q1 adjusted EPS $0.57-$0.63 vs. est. $0.64 and sees Q1 revenue $1.9B-$1.95B vs. consensus $1.92B; sees Q1 adjusted operating margin 16.7%-17.1%; Sees FY25 revenue $9.13B-$9.28B vs. consensus $9.25B.