Early Look

Thursday, February 13, 2025

U.S. futures are looking higher ahead of round two of weekly inflation data, looking to extend the rebound from Wednesday. It was another impressive performance for major US averages yesterday, clawing back early losses to end modestly lower for the S&P, and higher for the Nasdaq despite a sharply higher consumer price inflation report (CPI) for January on both headline and core. The strong CPI print for January is raising concerns about a reacceleration in inflation, along with questions about whether the Fed could keep interest rates on hold for the rest of 2025 as implied rate outlooks show lower chances of cuts in early summer. Still, investors took advantage of the early market weakness, “buying the dip” yet again as stocks ended near their best levels of the day, despite a massive spike in Treasury yields (10-yr 4.65%). The Dow and S&P 500 still posted their first declines in three sessions, helped after President Donald Trump’s claim that negotiations will start to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him on Wednesday. European markets rallied on the possible peace news as the German DAX surged 367 points or 1.66% to a new record 22,515, while the FTSE 100 is down -55 points to 8,752. The pan-European STOXX 600 index is on pace for its sixth straight session of intraday record highs. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped nearly 500 points or 1.28% to 39,461, the Shanghai Index fell -13 points to 3,332, and the Hang Seng Index dipped -43 points to 21,814. In earnings news overnight shares of APP, CSCO, BROS, HOOD and MGM rise double digit percent overnight on results while shares of RDDT and TTD headline the decliners overnight and Deere (DE) shares fall this morning on guidance.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -225.09 points, or 0.50%, to 44,368.56.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 6.10 points, or 0.03%, to 19,649.95.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -19.81 points, or 0.87% to 2,255.89.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.88M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/m for January…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/y for January…est. +3.2% (prior +3.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PPI Ex: Food & Energy M/m for January…est. +0.3% (prior 0%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PPI Ex: Food & Energy Y/y for January…est. +3.3% (prior +3.5%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ABNB AEE AEL AMAT APDN BFAM BIO CLW COIN CPS DKNG DLR DVA DXCM FBRT FROG FRT GDDY GPMT HASI HCC HL HTGC INFA IPW IR ISSC KN KNSL LEG LGCY LPTH MSI NUS OPI PACB PANW PCOR PDM RCEL ROKU RSG RWT TSLX TWLO UDMY VNDA WYNN YELP

• Tens of thousands of U.S. civil servants were cleared to take a buyout from Donald Trump’s administration on Wednesday after a federal judge ruled the unprecedented downsizing effort could proceed.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. inched closer to becoming U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services with the Senate scheduled to vote on his confirmation on Thursday.
• A group of Senate Republicans on Wednesday proposed a $1,000 tax on new electric vehicle purchases to account for the cost of federal road repairs.

• MGM Resorts (MGM) Q4 adj EPS $0.45, vs. est. $0.30; Q4 revs $4.3B vs. est. $4.27B; said encouraged by the strong demand seeing in the business so far in 2025; says BetMGM venture in N. Amer expected to be profitable this year; saw rev growth in our Las Vegas Strip Resorts and Regional Ops in January.
• Molson Coors (TAP) Q4 adj EPS $1.30 vs. est. $1.13; Q4 revs $2.74B vs. est. $2.7B; outlook net sales low single-digit increase versus 2024 on a constant currency basis.
• Nestle (NSRGY) reported slightly better than expected annual sales growth, driven by price increases, but warned of a narrower profit margin in 2025; Price increases of 1.5% last year just topped the average analyst estimate of 1.4%; Sales fell 1.8% to 91.35 billion francs, with net profit down 2.9% to 10.88 billion francs.
• Nissan (NSANY) and Honda (HMC) agreed to terminate the MOU signed on December 23 last year for consideration of a business integration between the two companies.
• Pilgrims Price (PPC) Q4 adj EPS $1.35 vs et $1.15, adj EBITDA $525.7Mm vs est. $487.85Mm on revs $4.372Mm vs est. $4.589Mm.
• Rollins Inc. (ROL) Q4 adj EPS $0.23 vs. est. $0.23 and revs $832M vs. est. $817.5M; Q4 operating income $151M vs. est. $160.4M; delivered double-digit revenue and cash flow growth, as well as a 40-basis point improvement in operating margins for 2024.
• Royal Caribbean (RCL) announces $1B share buyback and raises dividend by 36%.
• Service Corp. (SCI) Q4 adj EPS $1.06 vs. est. $1.05; Q4 revs $1.093B vs. est. $1.08B; said robust cash flow for the year allowed us to invest $181 million into the acquisition of 26 funeral homes and 6 cemeteries in major metropolitan markets and $62 million into real estate transactions; sees FY EPS $3.70-$4.00 vs. est. $3.93.
• Wyndham Hotels (WH) Q4 EPS $1.04 vs. est. $0.99; Q4 revs $341M vs. est. $344.47M; Q4 global RevPAR grew 5% compared to Q4 2023 in constant currency; guides FY global RevPAR growth 2% – 3%; sees 2025 adjusted EPS $4.66-$4.78, vs. consensus $4.78 and sees 2025 y/y rooms growth 3.6%-4.6%.

• Advanced Energy (AEIS) Q4 adj EPS $1.30 vs. consensus $1.10; Q4 revs $415.4M vs. est. $394.21M; sees Q1 adj EPS $1.03, plus/minus $0.25 vs. est. $0.97 and revs $392M, plus/minus $20M vs. est. $381.5M.
• Antero Resources (AR) Q4 EPS $0.26 vs. est. $0.29; Q4 revs $1.194B vs. est. $1.17B; raised previously communicated maintenance production targets by 50 Mmcfe/d to 3.35 to 3.45 Bcfe/d, driven by growth in liquids production; Realized natural gas price is expected to average a premium of $0.10 to $0.20 per Mcf to NYMEX; Reduced previously communicated drilling/completion capital budget, by $25M at midpoint to $650M-$700M.
• Williams Energy (WMB) Q4 adj EPS $0.47 vs. est. $0.45; raising midpoint of FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance by 3%; updating the range to between $7.45B-$7.85B; continues to expect 2025 growth capex between $1.65 billion and $1.95 billion and maintenance capex between $650 million and $750 million.

• Paycom Software (PAYC) Q4 adj EPS $2.32 vs est. $1.97, adj EBITDA $214.9Mm vs est. $188.4Mm on revs $493.8Mm vs est. $408.8Mm; guides FY revs $2.015-2.035B vs est. $2.053B and adj EBITDA $820-840Mm vs est. $812.10Mm.
• Reddit (RDDT) Q4 EPS $0.36 vs. est. $0.25; Q4 revs rose 71% y/y to $427.7M vs. est. $405.55M; Q4 DAUs up 39% y/y to 101.7M vs. est. 103.5M; sees Q1 revenue $360M-$370M vs. consensus $358.44M and sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA $80M-$90M; Q4 gross margin reached 92.6% and 90.5% for the full year.
• Robinhood (HOOD) Q4 EPS $1.01 vs. est. $0.52; Q4 revs $1.01B vs. est. $951.79M; noted a $369M deferred tax benefit, or 41c of diluted EPS; Q4 Assets under custody increased 88% y/y to $193B, driven by continued net deposits and higher equity and cryptocurrency valuations; Q4 net deposits were $16.1B, an annualized growth rate of 42% relative to AUC at the end of Q3; average revenue per user increased by 102% y/y to $164.

• GE HealthCare (GEHC) Q4 adj EPS $1.45 vs. est. $1.26; Q4 revs $5.32B vs. est. $5.33B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $4.61-$4.75, consensus $4.65; sees FY25 organic revenue growth of 2%-3% year-over-year, which reflects continued demand for products and services as well as a measured view of market conditions in China; says US tariffs on products from China, any future tariffs, will likely result in additional costs to them.

• Casella Waste (CWST) Q4 adj EPS $0.41, vs. est. $0.16; Q4 revs $427.5M vs. est. $419.53M; sees FY25 revenue $1.775B-$1.805B above consensus $1.73B; sees FY25 net income between $10M-$25M, adjusted EBITDA between $410M-$425M, and adjusted free cash flow between $165M-$180M.
• Curtiss-Wright (CW) Q4 adj EPS $3.27 vs est. $3.09, adj op in $163M vs est. $160M on sales $824M vs est. $789.59M, adj op mgn 19.8%; guides FY revs $3.34-3.39B vs est. $3.289B and adj EPS $12.10-12.40 vs est. $11.94.
• GXO Logistics (GXO) Q4 adj EPS $1.00 vs est. $0.94, adj EBITDA $251Mm vs est. $248.7Mm on revs $3.3B vs est. $3.22B; guides FY organic revs +3-6% and adj EPS $2.40-2.60 vs est. $3.04.
• Hubbell (HUBB) announces a new $500M share repurchase program
• Manitowoc (MTW) Q4 adj EPS $0.10 vs. est. $0.12; Q4 revs $596M vs. est. $600.15M; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $0.15-$0.85 vs. consensus $0.73; sees FY25 revenue $2.175B-$2.275B vs. consensus $2.2B.

• Cisco Systems (CSCO) Q2 adj EPS $0.94 vs. est. $0.91; Q2 revs $14B vs. est. $13.87B; boosts quarterly dividend to 41c/shr and boosts buyback authorization by $15B, remaining authorized buyback including increase is about $17B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $3.68-$3.74 from $3.60-$3.66 (est. $3.66) and boosts FY25 revenue view to $56B-$56.5B from $55.3B-$56.3B (est. $55.11B).
• Cognex (CGNX) Q4 adj EPS $0.20 vs est. $0.16 on revs $230Mm vs est. $220.7Mm; guides Q1 revs $200-220Mm vs est. $227.2Mm, adj gr mgn high-60s% and adj EBITDA mgn 12-15%.
• Equinix (EQIX) Q4 AFFO/shares $7.92 vs est. $8.09 on revs $2.261B vs est. $2.274B; guides FY revs $9.033-9.133B vs est. $9.402B, adj EBITDA $4.386-4.466B vs est. $4.518B and AFFO/shares $36.69-37.51 vs est. $38.02.
• Fastly (FSLY) Q4 adjusted EPS loss (-$0.03) vs. est. 0c; Q4 revs $140.58M vs. est. $138.63M; sees FY25 adjusted EPS loss (15c)-(9c) vs. consensus $0.03 and revs $575M-$585M vs. est. $575.84M.
• HubSpot (HUBS) Q4 adj ESP 42.32 vs est. $2.19, adj EBIT $133.1Mm vs est. $128.8MM on revs $703.172Mm vs est. $673.3Mm; guides Q1 revs $697-699Mm vs est. $705.71Mm, adj op Inc $98-99Mm vs est. $119.71Mm and adj EPS $1.74-1.76 vs est. $2.00; guides FY revs $2.985-2.995B vs est. $2.999B, adj op Inc $543-547Mm vs est. $553.04Mm and adj EPS $9.11-9.19 vs est. $9.14.
• MKS Instruments (MKSI) Q4 adj EPS $2.15 vs. est. $1.95; Q4 revs $935M vs. est. $914.2M; Q4 pre-tax profit $79M vs. est. $133.8M; guides Q1 revs $870M-$950M vs. est. $908.7M and EPS $1.13-$1.67 vs. est. $1.62.
• Pega Systems (PEGA) Q4 adj EPS $1.61 vs est. $1.46 on revs $490.83Mm vs est. $470.69Mm; guides FY adj revs $1.6B vs est. $1.581B and adj EPS $3.10 vs est. $3.24.
• Q2 Holdings (QTWO) Q4 adj EBIT DA $37.6Mm vs est. $35.5Mm on revs $183Mm vs est. $179.92Mm, adj gr mgn 57.4%; guides Q1 revs $184-188Mm vs est. $184.67Mm and adj EBITDA $36-39Mm vs est. $34.78Mm; sees FY revs $772-779Mm vs est. $772.09Mm and adj EBITDA $165-170MM vs est. $159.93Mm.
• Sony (SONY) raised its operating profit forecast for the year by 2% to 1.34 trillion yen ($8.70 billion) as it reported strong growth at its key gaming unit; profit at the gaming business grew 37% in the October-December quarter; sold 9.5 million PlayStation 5 units during the quarter, compared to 8.2 million units a year earlier.
• Trade Desk (TTD) Q4 adj EPS $0.59 vs est. $0.56, adj EBITDA mgn 47% on revs $741Mm vs est. $758.93Mm; guides Q1 revs at least $575Mm vs est. $591.8Mm.
• Tyler Technologies (TYL) Q4 EPS $1.49 vs est. $1.61 reported basis on revs $541.1Mm vs est. $540.46Mm; guides FY revs $2.3-2.34B vs est. $2.357B and adj EPS $10.90-11.15 vs est. $10.79.