Morning Preview: February 14, 2025

Auto PostDaily Market Report

Early Look

Friday, February 14, 2025

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

-140.00

0.31%

44,671

S&P 500

-13.00

0.21%

6,122

Nasdaq

-62.50

0.28%

22,050

 

 

U.S. futures dip slightly after surging all day Thursday to close near record highs for the S&P 500 index (SPX), moving to within 15 points of its all-time intraday best of 6,128.18 in late January (prior record closing high stands at 6,118.71) as momentum continues to push major averages higher. The S&P 500 index is on track for a weekly gain of +1.5%, the Nasdaq +2.16% and the Dow +0.92% in a week that has seen reciprocal tariff updates for trading countries by the U.S., two hotter monthly inflation reports (CPI, PPI) and mixed earnings results/guidance, but stocks have done nothing but push higher. Meta Inc. (META) for example has now settled in positive territory for a 19th straight session on Thursday too all-time highs. Gold prices are also pushing to record highs daily as the dollar (DXY) slips to 2-month lows. News of a possible peace talks between Ukraine and Russia has lifted market sentiment, while President Trump cabinet selections have all thus far been confirmed, with RJK Jr. the latest yesterday as the head of HHS. Stocks just keep pushing higher with lots of favorable setups for the S&P 500 (SPX) as the Fear & Greed index was – Neutral 46 (plenty upside there), the AAII Investor Sentiment posts highest Bearish Sentiment in a year 47.3% of participants are bearish (which is contra indicator) and NAAIM down again this week to 75.62 reading from 84.91. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -312 points to 39,149, the Shanghai Index rose 14 points to 3,346, and the Hang Seng Index surged 805 points or 3.69% to settle at 22,620. In Europe, the German DAX is down -51 points to 22,560, while the FTSE 100 is down -15 points to 8,747. Note the US dollar index (DXY) is down to 107.00, falling another -0.3% and now at its lowest level since before the December Fed meeting. Later this morning Wall Street gets January import/export prices, as well as monthly Retail Sales data, Industrial Production and Business Inventories.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index gained 63.10 points, or 1.04%, to 6,115.07.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 342.87 points, or 0.77%, to 44,711.43.
  • The Nasdaq Composite jumped 295.69 points, or 1.50%, to 19,945.64.
  • The Russell 2000 Index advanced 26.30 points, or 1.17% to 2,282.18.

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 8:30 AM ET                  Import Prices M/M for January…est. +0.4%
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Export Prices M/M for January…est. +0.3%
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales M/M for January…est. (-0.1%)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales – Less Autos M/m for January…est. +0.3%
  • 9:15 AM ET                  Industrial Production M/m for January…est. +0.3%
  • 9:15 AM ET                  Capacity Utilization for January…est. 77.7%
  • 10:00 AM ET                Business inventories M/m for December…est. 0.0%
  • 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: AMCX AXL BGC ESNT MMI MRNA NMRK POR SXT THS ZCAR

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

0.01

71.30

Brent

0.07

75.09

Gold

12.80

2,958.20

EUR/USD

0.0003

1.0467

JPY/USD

-0.18

152.62

10-Year Note

+0.004

4.529%

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • AirBnB (ABNB) Q4 EPS $0.73 tops $0.58 consensus; Q4 revs $2.48 vs. est. $2.42B; Q4 adjusted EBITDA, gross booking value $17.6B; sees Q1 revenue $2.23B-$2.27B vs. est. $2.3B; sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA, EBITDA margin down vs. last year; average daily rate, or the cost per night, is expected to decline slightly y/y in Q1; said that it plans to invest $200 million to $250 million towards launching and scaling new businesses during the year.
  • DraftKings (DKNG) Q4 adj EPS $0.14 vs. est. $0.04; Q4 revs $1.39B, in-line with consensus $1.39B; Q4 monthly unique payers increased to 4.8M and the average revenue per MUP was $97; raises 2025 Revenue Guidance Midpoint to $6.45B from prior midpoint $6.4B and reaffirms 2025 adj EBITDA guidance of $900M-$1.0B.
  • GameStop (GME) is exploring investments in alternative asset classes, including crypto and in particular bitcoin, three sources said, CNBC reported last night sending shares higher. https://tinyurl.com/4nze6d7z
  • Goodyear Tire (GT) Q4 adj EPS $0.39 vs. est. $0.29; Q4 sales $4.95B vs. est. $4.86B.
  • Leggett & Platt (LEG) Q4 adj EPS $0.21 vs. est. $0.20; Q4 revs $1.1B vs. est. $1.03B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $1.00-$1.20, vs. consensus $1.19 and sees FY25 revenue $4B-$4.3B vs. est. $4.34B; anticipates about $80M of annual sales attrition; now expects restructuring-related costs of $80M-$90M vs prior estimate of $65M-$85M.
  • Magna International (MGA) cut its 2026 sales estimate to be between $40.5B-$42.6B from prior view of $48.8B-$51.2B while offering a weak revenue forecast for the current year on Friday and said challenges such as uncertain government policies have made forecasting “more difficult”.
  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Q4 adj EPS $2.42 above consensus $1.27; Q4 revs $1.84B vs. est. $1.77B; Q4 adj EBITDA $619.1M vs. est. $539.9M; Q4 operating revenues increased $38.6M and $2.7M at Wynn Palace and our Las Vegas Operations, respectively, and decreased $22.5M and $4.5M at Wynn Macau and Encore Boston Harbor.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

  • Ameren Corp. (AEE) Q4 adj EPS $0.77 vs. est. $0.79; Q4 revs rose 20% y/y to $1.94B vs. est. $1.9B; affirms guidance for 2025 earnings
  • Exelon (EXC) files $12.6B mixed securities shelf.
  • Clearwater Paper (CLW) to cut 10% of positions across company; said Q4 sales fell -5.8% y/y to $483M saying they continue to experience challenging SBS industry conditions, with supply exceeding demand, but we remain optimistic about the future growth prospects of paperboard packaging.
  • Ingersoll Rand (IR) Q4 adj EPS $0.84 vs est. $0.84, adj EBITDA $532Mm vs est. $535.53Mm n revs $1.899B vs est. $1.907B; guides FY revs +3-5% vs est. $+5.17% and adj EPS $3.38-3.50 vs est. $3.48.
  • Republic Service Group (RSG) Q4 adj EPS $1.58 vs. est. $1.39; Q4 revs $4.05B vs. est. $4.07B; sees 2025 EPS $6.82-$6.90 vs. est. $6.79 and sees 2025 revs $16.85B-$16.95B vs. est. $16.95B.

Financials

  • Wells Fargo (WFC) confirmed that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) terminated its 2018 consent order related to the company’s compliance risk management program. This is the tenth consent order closed by Wells Fargo’s regulators since 2019.
  • Coinbase (COIN) Q4 EPS $4.68 vs. $1.81 estimate; Q4 revenue $2.20B vs. est. $1.84B; Q4 subscription & service revs $641M; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $1.29B vs. $324M last year.
  • Digital Realty (DLR) Q4 core FFO $1.73, vs. est. $1.69 and Q4 revenue $1.4B vs. est. $1.46B; Q4 adj EBITDA $751M vs. est. $755.9M; Q4 reported rental rate increases on renewal leases of 4.7% on a cash basis; sees 2025 core FFO $7.05-$7.15 (vs. est. $7.07) and sees 2025 revenue $5.8B-$5.9B (vs. est. $6.13B).     
  • eGain (EGAN) Q2 adj EPS $0.04 vs est. $0.02 on revs $22.389Mm vs est. $22.53Mm; guides Q3 revs $21.0-21.5Mm vs est. $23.56Mm and adj EPS $0.00-0.02 vs est. $0.09; sees FY revs $88.5-90Mm vs est. $92.36Mm and adj EPS $0.14-0.16 vs est. $0.22.
  • Federal Realty (FRT) Q4 FFO/share $1.73 vs est. $1.73; guides FY25 FFO/share $7.10-7.22 vs est. $7.14.
  • Kinsale Capital (KNSL) Q4 EPS $4.68 vs est. $4.34 on revs $412.1Mm vs est. $416.71Mm, combined ratio 73.4%.
  • Udemy Inc. (UDMY) Q4 adj EBITDA $19.5Mm vs est. $11.2Mm, adj gr mgn 64% on revs $199.9Mm vs est. $194.7Mm; guides Q1 revs $195-199Mm vs est. $199.84Mm and FY revs $787-803Mm vs est. $807.19Mm.

Healthcare

  • Bio Rad Labs (BIO) Q4 adj EPS $2.90 vs est. $2.87 on revs $667.5Mm vs est. $679.3Mm, gr mgn 51.2%, op mgn 8.7%; guides adj currency-neutral revs growth approx 1.5-3.5% vs est. +2.4% and adj op mgn approx 13.0-13.5%.
  • Bright Horizons Family (BFAM) Q4 adj EPS $0.98 vs. est. $0.91; Q4 revs $674M, vs. est. $672M; sees FY25 EPS $3.95-$4.15, vs. est. $3.99 and sees FY25 revenue $2.85B-$2.9B vs. est. $2.89B.
  • DaVita Inc. (DVA) Q4 adj EPS $2.24 vs est. $2.13, adj op Inc $491Mm vs est. $470.5Mm on revs $3.3B vs est. $3.262B; guides FY adj op Inc $2.01-2.16B vs est. $2.077B and adj EPS $10.20-11.30 vs est. $11.24.
  • Dexcom (DXCM) Q4 adj EPS $0.45 vs est. $0.50, adj op Inc $209.5Mm vs est. $240.2Mm on revs $1.11B vs est. $1.104B; sees FY revs $4.6B vs est. $4.612B, adj gr mgn 64-6+5%, adj EBITDA mgn approx 30%.
  • Moderna (MRNA) Q4 EPS loss (-$2.91) vs. est. loss (-$2.68); Q4 revs fell -66% y/y to $966M vs. est. $942.8M; Q4 net product sales $938M; sees Fy25 revs $1.25B-$1.65B below est. $2.43B; said by 2025-end, aims to remove nearly $1 bln in costs. Q4 cash, cash equivalents and investments as of dec 31 were $9.5B.
  • Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Q4 EPS ($0.08) vs est. ($0.11) on revs $53.2Mm vs est. $52.25Mm; sees FY revs $210-250Mm vs est. $284.9Mm.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Applied Materials (AMAT) Q1 EPS $2.38 tops consensus $2.30; Q1 revenue $7.17B vs. est. $7.16B; guides Q2 EPS $2.30 plus/minus $0.18 vs. est. $2.29 and sees Q2 revenue $7.1B plus/minus $400M vs. est. $7.2B.
  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Q2 adj EPS $0.81 vs est. $0.78 on revs $2.257B vs est. $2.239B; guides Q3 revs $2.26-2.29B vs est. $2.271B and adj EPS $0.76-0.77 vs est. $0.76; sees FY revs $9.14-9.19B and adj EPS $3.18-3.24 vs est. $3.17.
  • Motorola Solutions (MSI) Q4 adj EPS $4.04 vs est. $3.88 on revs $3.01B vs est. $2.993B; sees Q1 revs +5.0-5.5% vs est. +5.42% and adj EPS $2.98-3.03 vs est. $2.93; sees FY revs +5.5% vs est. +5.99% and adj EPS $14.64-14.74 vs est. $14.67.
  • Roku Inc. (ROKU) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.24) vs. est. loss (-$0.43); Q4 revs $1.20B above consensus $1.15B; beat driven by robust subscriber growth and strong advertising; for Q1, estimate Total net revenue of $1.0B, up 14% y/y; anticipate Platform revenue growing 16% y/y and Devices revenue largely flat y/y; sees FY25 revenue $4.61B vs.  consensus $4.62B and adj Ebitda $350M.
  • Twilio (TWLO) Q4 adj EPS $1.00 vs est. $1.04, adj op Inc $197Mm vs est. $197.96Mm on revs $1.19B vs est. $1.183B; guides Q1 revs $1.13-1.14B vs est. $1.143B and adj EPS $0.88-0.93 vs est. $0.99; sees FY adj op Inc $825-850Mm vs est. $832.75Mm.
  • GoDaddy (GDDY) Q4 EPS $1.36 vs est. $1.43 on revs $1.193B vs est. $1.179B, bookings $1.223B; guides Q1 revs $1.175-1.195B vs est. $1.186B and normalized EBITDA mgn approx 30%; sees FY revs $4.86-4.94B vs est. $4.897B and normalized EBITDA mgn approx +100bps yr/yr.
  • Informatica (INFA) Q4 EPS $0.41 vs. est. $0.38; Q4 revs $428.3M vs. est. $457.04M; sees Q1 revenue $380M-$400M, below consensus $410.86M and sees FY25 revenue $1.67B-$1.72B below est. $1.78B.
  • Procore Technologies (PCOR) Q4 adj EPS $0.01 vs est. $0.12 on revs $302.048Mm vs est. $297.8Mm, adj gr mgn 85%; guides Q1 revs $301-303Mm vs est. $302Mm and FY revs $1.285-1.29B vs est. $1.279B.
  • Knowles (KN) authorizes an additional $150M for share buyback program.
  • Yelp Inc. (YELP) Q4 EPS $0.62 vs est. $0.53 on revs $361.952Mm vs est. $350Mm; guides FY revs $1.47-1.485B vs est. $1.407B and adj BITDA $345-360Mm vs est. $362.54Mm.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) dissolves share stake in Serve robotics (SERV), dissolves share stake in SoundHound AI Inc (SOUN), reports share stake of 1.7M sponsored ads in WeRide Inc, reports share stake of 1.2M Class A shares in Nebius group (NBIS) and cuts share stake in Arm Holdings (ARM) by 43.8% to 1.1M sponsored as per SEC filings.

_________________________________________________________________

Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading

Register