Early Look

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

U.S. futures are looking down slightly after closing at all time highs on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a new record high on Tuesday, spiking into the bell to keep the market rally of 2025 intact as investors returned from a three-day weekend, awaiting minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting and data due later this week. Energy, Materials and Utilities outperformed on Tuesday with modest gains in Technology behind strength in semiconductors while META snapped its 20-day losing. Another tariff threat from President Trump came late on Tuesday, when the president said to expect additional duties on autos, chips, and pharmaceuticals, but headlines again failed to dent investor optimism. Investors are meanwhile treading carefully as they count await Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Fed’s January meeting. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -105 points to 39,164, the Shanghai Index rose 27 points to 3,351, and the Hang Seng Index slipped -32 points to 22,944. In Europe, the German DAX is down -135 points to 22,708, while the FTSE 100 slips -28 points to 8,738. US Treasuries edge lower, pushing US 10-year yields up a basis points to 4.56%, while gold prices extend their march higher to $2,960 an ounce and Bitcoin rebounds over 1% to $96,250.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10.26 points, or 0.02%, to 44,556.34.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 14.49 points, or 0.07%, to 20,041.26.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 10.37 points, or 0.45% to 2,290.35.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Housing Starts M/M for January…est. 1.3M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Building Permits M/M for January…est. 1.46M
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ACVA AMPL ANSS AWK AWR BMRN BNL CAKE CCAP CCSI CDE CF CHDN CVNA CWAN ENVX ESRT EXAS GNK HLF HST IIPR INSG JXN KALU KAR LAND LILA LOPE LUNG MCW MGRC NDSN NOG NRDS NYMT OEC OGS OII OM PK PRAA RELY RGR ROG RS SBRA SKT SM TBI TOST TPL TRUP VMEO VTLE

• Barclays 42nd Annual Industrial Select Conference, 2/19-2/20, in Miami, FL
• Citigroup Global Industrial Tech and Mobility Conference, 2/17-2/25 in Miami, FL
• Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY), 2/17-2/25m in New York
• Da Davidson 2nd Annual Midwestern Bank Summit, 2/19 (virtual)
• Goldman Sachs Capital Markets Forum 2025 – Powering Connections, 2/18-2/20 in Riyadh

• The European Central Bank will soon have to discuss taking a break, or ending altogether, its campaign of interest-rate reductions, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel told the Financial Times.

• Canadian Tire said on Wednesday that it would sell its Helly Hansen business to Kontoor Brands (KTB) for C$1.28 billion ($901.2 million).
• International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) Q4 adj EPS $0.97 vs est. $0.81, adj EBTDA $471Mm vs est. $458Mm on sales $2.8B vs est. $2.677B; guides FY sales $10.6-10.9B vs est. $11.158B and adj EBITDA $2.0-2.15B vs est. $2.213B.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) Q3 adj EPS $0.68 vs est. $0.68 on sales $522Mm vs est. $516.54Mm, adj op mgn 6.8%; guides Q4 to outpace industry but sees industry trends remaining under pressure, assuming not significant changes in tariffs, sees Q4 sales $545-565Mm vs est. $565.47Mm and adj op mgn 8.5-9.5%.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) Q1 EPS $1.75 vs est. $2.04 on revs $1.86B vs est. $1.906B, adj home sales gr mgn 26.9% vs 28.9%; guides Q2 deliveries 2,500-2,700 units, avg delivered price per home $940-960k, adj gr mgn 27.25%; sees FY deliveries 11,200-11,600 units, avg delivered price $945-965k, adj gr mgn 27.25%.
• TrueCar (TRUE) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.07) vs. est. loss (-$0.02); Q4 revs $46.2M vs. est. $47.3M; said sees Q1 revenue growth in high single digits and negative Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5M; but said outlook for growing OEM incentive revenue, in addition to core dealer revenue, in Q2-Q4 remains strong due in part to the recent enablement of MBUSA incentives to validated AAA members nationwide.
• Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) Q4 adj EPS $0.42, in-line with consensus on revs $494.7M vs. est. $485.74M; Q4 Gross margin improved significantly due to lower supply chain costs, product costs and lower sales of end-of-life inventory; Inventory at the end of the quarter was $241 million and was down $133 million or approximately 35.6% compared to the prior year.

• EQT Corp. (EQT) Q4 adj EPS $0.69 vs est. $0.49, adj EBITDA $1.412B vs est. $1.199B on revs $1.62B, vs est. $1.768B; guides FY25 FCF attributable to EQT $2.6-3.3B and about $7B net debt.
• Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Q4 EPS $0.44 vs est. $0.45, adj EBITDA $235.8Mm vs est. $230.06Mm on revs $326.6Mm vs est. $325.22Mm; sees 2025 D&C capital spending $460-490Mm, production growth +5-7%; sees Q1 D&C capital spending approx $135Mm and total production approx 94 Mboe/d.
• Matador (MTDR) Q4 adj EPS $1.83 vs. consensus $1.75; raises dividend by 25% from $1.00 to $1.25 annually; produced record annual average daily oil production of 99,808 barrels per day (an increase of 32%); sees FY25 oil production 120K-124K boe/d and sees FY25 nat gas production 492M-504M cubic feet per day.
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Q4 adj EPS $0.80, vs. est. $0.70; Q4 revs $6.76B vs. est. $7.14B; increases quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.24 per share; sees Q1 production 1,370-1,410 mboepd and sees FY25 production 1,385-1,445 mboepd; announces further progress on debt reduction.

• Compass Inc. (COMP) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.08) vs. est. loss (-$0.07); Q4 revs $1.38B vs. est. $1.32B; said grew both Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA significantly and delivered $122M in operating cash flow; sees Q1 revenue $1.35B-$1.475B above consensus $1.34B and sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $11M-$25M.
• CoStar Group (CSGP) Q4 EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.23; Q4 revs $709M vs. est. $703M; said full year revenue increased 11% y/y; Q4 24 net income increased 13%, EBITDA Increased 43% & adjusted EBITDA Increased 47% from Q3’24; approved a stock repurchase program for up to $500 million of the Company’s common stock.
• XP Inc. (XP) Q4 adj EPS $2.23 vs est. $2.20 on revs $4.487B vs est. $4.445B, adj ROAE 23.4%, adj ROTE 29.2%.

• Penumbra (PEN) Q4 adj EPS $0.97 vs est. $0.90 on revs $315.518Mm vs est. $311.52Mm; guides FY revs $1.34-1.36B vs est. $1.362B, gr mgn at least +100bps, op mgn 13-14%.
• Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF) announced the appointment of three new leaders to Petco’s executive team to support accelerated operational improvement and position the business for a faster return to profitable growth. Petco named Sabrina Simmons as new CFO.
• Supernus (SUPN) shares tumbled overnight after announced that the Phase 2b study of SPN-820 in adults with treatment-resistant depression did not demonstrate a statistically significant improvement on the primary endpoint of change from baseline in the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale total score to Week 4.

• Element Solutions (ESI) Q4 adj EPS $0.35 vs est. $0.35 on sales $624.2Mm vs est. $595.78Mm.
• Flowserve Corp. (FLS) Q4 adj EPS $0.70 vs est. $0.77 on revs $1.180B vs est. $1.208B, bookings $1.2B, adj gr mgn 32.8%; guides sales +5-7% vs est. +8.57% and adj EPS $3.10-3.30 vs est. $3.25
• Sonoco Products (SON) Q4 adj EPS $1.00, vs. est. $1.20; Q4 revs $1.36B vs. est. $1.67B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $6.00-$6.20, vs. consensus $6.40 and sees FY25 adjusted EBITDA $1.3B-$1.4B.

• Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) Q4 adj EPS $1.88 vs. est. $1.82; Q4 revs $1.356B vs. est. $1.35B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $6.65-$6.75 below consensus $6.82 and sees revs $5.14B-45.22B vs. est. $5.25B; Q4 non-GAAP operating margin of 46.0%, compared to 42.9% in Q4 2023.
• Strategy (MSTR) said it is offering privately $2 bln convertible bonds due 2030 and to use net proceeds for general purposes, including acquisition of Bitcoin.
• Unisys (UIS) Q4 EPS $0.33 vs. est. $0.30; Q4 revs $545.4M vs. est. $550.93M; sees 2025 revenue growth 0.5%-2.5% from $2.0B in 2024 (est. $2.07B) and sees 2025 non-GAAP operating profit margin 6.5%-8.5%; Q4 declined 40 bps YoY and Ex-L&S gross profit margin declined 80 bps YoY, primarily due to higher cost reduction charges.
• NetEase (NTES) raised fears with recent moves that it is unloading as much as all of its overseas holdings in U.S. game companies and elsewhere due to rising costs and other reasons. Such a move, which coincidentally is happening at the same time as China’s retaliation to U.S. tariffs – Venture Beat reports.
• Waystar (WAY) files to sell 18M shares of common stock.