Early Look

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	7.00	0.02%	39,123
S&P 500	3.25	0.07%	5,083
Nasdaq	24.50	0.14%	18,001

 

 

After slipping late day to finish at the lows, S&P futures are looking at a flat open as markets await key economic data later this week. Ahead of key economic data tomorrow (GDP) and inflation data Thursday (PCE/core PCE), Kansas City Fed President Schmid, in his first major speech, advocated for patience in cutting rates, citing above target inflation and the job market remaining robust. Schmid also said that further disinflation would need to come from services, and wage growth also likely needed to moderate. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index edges higher 5 points to 39,239, the Shanghai Index rose 38 points to 3,015, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 155 points to 16,790. In Europe, the German DAX is up 65 points to 17,488, while the FTSE 100 is down -5 points to 7,680. The US dollar remains in a tight range, down slightly (DXY -0.1% at 103.73) awaiting the Q4 GDP results tomorrow morning and then PCE and core PCE data on Thursday morning. Japan’s January national CPI data overnight slowed from last month but came in higher than expected. In earnings overnight, shares of ZM, TMDX, PUBM, HIMS all rallied on results while CARG, Unity (U) and WDAY slipped on results. This morning, home improvement retailer LOW reported better earnings, but comp sales fell and issued conservative guidance. Bitcoin tops $57,000 price level for first time since late 2021, extending its YTD gain to +35%.

 

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -62.30 points, or 0.16%, to 39,069.23.
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -20.57 points, or 0.13%, to 15,976.25.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 12.28 points, or 0.61% to 2,028.97.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Durable Goods Orders M/M for January…est. (-4.5%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Durable Goods Orders M/M Ex Transportation for January…est. +0.2%
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                  CaseShiller 20-city Index for December…est. +0.2%
• 9:00 AM ET                  Monthly Home Prices M/M for December
• 10:00 AM ET                Consumer Confidence for February…est. 115.0 (prior 114.8)
• 10:00 AM ET                Richmond Fed Index for February…Prior (-15)
• 1:00 PM ET                   US Treasury to sell $41B in 7-year notes.
• 4:30 PM ET                   API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: A ACAD ACHC AGL ALEC AMBA APLS ARKO ARRY AXON BECN BGFV BGS BMBL BYND CAVA CHE CLNE COMP CPNG CRC CYTK DAR DDD DO DVN EB EBAY EHTH EXR FARO FSLR GDOT GO GPOR HRZN HURN IAS ICUI INGN IPAR JAMF KURA KVYO LAZR LMND LPRO MASI MNKD MYGN NRDY OSUR OVV PARR PGNY PK PRA RC RDFN RGNX RKLB RSG RVLV RYAM RYAN SAM SBRA SNDX SPCE SPLK SSTI SUPN TKO UHS URBN VZIO XNCR

• JP Morgan Global High Yield and Leveraged Conference, 2/26-2/28, in Miami, FL
• JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Corp Conference, 2/26-2/28, in Miami, FL
• KBW Fintech & Payments Conference, 2/27-2/29, in New York
• NAHB Internation Builders Show, 2/26-2/28 in Las Vegas, NV

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.28	77.30
Brent	-0.36	82.17
Gold	6.30	2,045.20
EUR/USD	0.0003	1.0850
JPY/USD	-0.34	150.35
10-Year Note	-0.025	4.274%

 

• Statistics favor continued stock market strength as @RyanDetrick tweeted “The S&P 500 is about to be up in Nov, Dec, Jan, and Feb. Did you know the full calendar yr has never been lower when that happened before? Higher 14 out of 14 and up 21.2% on average.”
• Japan January National CPI above expected rising 2.2% y/y vs +1.9% consensus (prior 2.6%), Japan January National CPI Ex Fresh Food above expected; +2.0% vs +1.9% consensus (prior 2.3%), and Japan January National CPI Ex Food, Energy above expected; 3.5% vs 3.3% consensus (prior 3.7%).
• President Biden expressed optimism about negotiations for a ceasefire which would pause military operations in Gaza and secure the release of hostages held by Hamas, suggesting a potential breakthrough in the conflict. Biden said he was hopeful a deal could be reached by next Monday.
• Overall, UK shop prices rose 2.5% in February from a year ago, compared with a 2.9% annual increase the prior month, marking a ninth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest since March 2022.

• CarGurus (CARG) Q4 EPS $0.35 vs. est. $0.34; Q4 revs $223.12M vs. est. $220.05M; guides Q1 EPS $0.24-$0.29 vs. est. $0.31 and Q1 revs $201M-$221M below consensus $235.7M.
• iRobot (IRBT) Q4 EPS loss (-$2.28) vs (-$3.07) y/y and revs $307.54M vs $357.87M y/y; expects negative cash flow from operations in Q1 and Q2 but positive in Q3/Q4; for 1H’24, revenue is expected to decline in high teens to low 20s percentage range and 2H’24 anticipates a mid-single-digit percentage improvement in revenue.
• MasterBrand (MBC) Q4 adj EPS $0.34 vs est. $0.27 on revs $677.1Mm vs est. $666.7Mm, gr mgn 32.9%; sees FY net sales -low-single digit to flat vs est. -1.55%, adj EBITDA $370-400Mm vs est. $375Mm, adj EBITDA mgn 14.0-14.5% and adj EPS $1.40-1.60 vs est. $1.40.
• Trex Inc. (TREX) Q4 adj EPS $0.20 vs est. $0.19, adj EBITDA $41.123 vs est. $40.09 on revs $196Mm vs est. $193.23Mm; guides Q1 sales $360-370Mm vs est. $307.1Mm; sees FY sales $1.215-1.235B vs est. $1.218B, EBITDA mgn 30.0-30.5%.
• Shein is considering switching its IPO to London from New York as it anticipates the Securities and Exchange Commission is unlikely to approve the US listing – Bloomberg.

• Archer Aviation (ACHR) Q4 operating expense $107.3M, and EBITDA loss $85.2M; says on track to complete build out of volume manufacturing facility alongside Stellantis in Georgia later this year; sees Q1 non-GAAP total operating expenses of $75M-$95M.
• Helios Technologies (HLIO) Q4 adj EPS $0.38 vs est. $0.27, adj EBITDA $32.3Mm vs est. $28.78Mm o net sales $193.4Mm vs est. $183.35Mm; guides FY revs $840-860Mm vs est. $849.68Mm, adj EBITDA $163-180Mm vs est. $175.83Mm, adj EBITDA mgn 19.5-21.0%, adj EPS $2.35-2.75 vs est. $2.65.
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR) shares -29% after saying communications with spacecraft Odysseus to end on Tuesday morning, cutting short mission to 5 days from expectations of 7 to 10 days. The decline follows Monday -34% drop after saying its craft tipped over on landing, limiting communications and recharging of batteries via solar power.
• ONEOK (OKE) Q4 EPS $1.18 vs est. $1.20, adj EBITDA $1.514B vs est. $1.468B; guides adj EBITDA midpoint $6.1B vs est. $6.079B, net income mid-point $2.8B and approx $1.75-1.95B CAPEX.
• Primoris Services (PRIM) Q4 adj EPS $0.85 vs est. $0.67 on revs $1.5B vs est. $1.546B; sees FY adj EPS $3.05-3.25 vs est. $2.93, sees FY adj EBITDA $395-415Mm vs est. $407.55Mm.
• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Q4 adj EPS $1.30 vs est. $1.00, adj EBITDA $68.9Mm vs est. $63.23Mm on revs $485.978Mm vs est. $522.45Mm, gr mgn 18.9%; sees FY revs $2.125-2.215B vs est. $2.201B, EBITDA $285-300Mm vs est. $285.95Mm and EPS $4.85-5.15 vs est. $4.71.

• Janux Therapeutics (JANX) announced positive updated clinical data for both of its clinical programs; JANX007 reduced PSA levels in majority of 23 dosed patients, with deeper reductions observed at higher doses.
• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) Q4 EPS ($1.14) vs est. ($0.88) on revs $0.7Mm vs est. 1.09Mm; guides FY GAAP net loss $480-520Mm.
• STAAR Surgical (STAA) Q4 EPS $0.16 vs est. $0.17 on net sales $76.3Mm vs est. $75.89Mm, gr mgn 79.6%; guides FY net sales $335-340Mm vs est. $348.96Mm and adj EBITDA $36Mm vs est. $52.76Mm.
• TransMedics Group (TMDX) Q4 EPS $0.12 vs est. ($0.03) on revs $81.2Mm vs est. $68.51Mm; guides FY revs $360-370Mm vs est. $330.23Mm.

• Five9 (FIVN) announces $600M convertible notes offering.
• PowerSchool Holdings (PWSC) Q4 adj EPS $0.17 vs est. $0.21, adj EBITDA $59.4Mm vs est. $57.4Mm on revs $182.1Mm vs est. $183.44Mm; guides Q1 revs $183-186Mm vs est. $185.18Mm and adj EBITDA $56.5-58.5Mm vs est. $57.79Mm; sees FY revs $786-792Mm vs est. $788.82Mm.
• Progress Software (PRGS) announces $350M convertible senior notes offering.
• PubMatic (PUBM) Q4 EPS $0.45 vs. est. $0.20; Q4 revs $84.6M vs. est. $78.2M; sees Q1 revenue $61M-$63M vs. est. $58.19M and sees Q1 adj EBITDA $10M-$12M; board of directors expands share repurchase program by $100M; sees full year 2024 y/y revenue growth of over 10%, or over 12% excluding Yahoo.
• SBA Communications (SBAC) Q4 AFFO/shr $3.37 vs est. $3.32, adj EBITDA $480.7Mm vs est. $480.55Mm on revs $675.1M vs est. $682.17M; sees FY revs $2.669-2.709B vs est. $2.75B and AFFO/shr $13.15-13.51 vs est. $13.56.
• Unity Software (U) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.66) vs. est. loss (-$0.45); Q4 revs $609.27M vs. est. $562.7M; guiding to $415M-$420M in revenue for our Strategic Portfolio and $45M-$50M in adjusted EBITDA; guiding FY24 Strategic Portfolio to $1.76B-$1.8B in revenue, up 2% to 4% year-on-year and $400M-$425M in Adjusted EBITDA.
• Workday Inc. (WDAY) Q4 EPS $1.57 vs. est. $1.47; Q4 revs $1.9B vs. est. $1.92B; said has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire HiredScore; reiterating fy25 subscription rev guidance of $7.725B-$7.775B, representing growth of 17% to 18%, expect FY25 non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 24.5%.
• Zoom Media (ZM) Q4 adj EPS $1.42 vs. est. $1.15; Q4 revs $1.15B vs. est. $1.13B; Q4 Free cash flow $332.7M vs. est. $212.4M; guides FY adj EPS $4.85-$4.88 vs. est. $4.72; board authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $1.5B of outstanding class a common stock.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.