Early Look

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-101.00	0.26%	38,915
S&P 500	-15.25	0.28%	5,075
Nasdaq	-67.50	0.37%	17,953

 

 

U.S. stock futures are pulling back after closing at their high on Tuesday, down around -0.3% across the board ahead of important economic data today. At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 (2nd estimate) will be released and expected to rise +3.3%, Consumer Spending for Q4 est. +3.2% and GDP Price Deflator est. +1.5%. The PCE Prices Prelim for Q4 est. +1.7% and Core PCE Prelim Prices for Q4 est. +2.0% (markets get more updated January PCE data on Thursday which is the data we been waiting for all week). U.S. markets closed at their highs on Tuesday, boosted late day by shares of Apple and Tesla after Apple said it scrapped plans to build an electric car, with the hope that generative AI and mixed-reality headsets can make up the difference. Bitcoin rises another 4.7% to $59,400 (+41.5% YTD) and Ethereum +3% at $3,350 (+46% YTD) as upside momentum continues, lifting shares of COIN, MSTR and others premarket yet again. The U.S. dollar bouncing early with the dollar index (DXY) +0.25% back above the 104 level while Treasury yields flat (10-yr at 4.285) ahead of the key data later this morning. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -31 points to 39,208, the Shanghai Index fell -57 points or 1.91% to settle at 2,957, and the Hang Seng Index declined -253 points to 16,536. Property sector woes continued as Country Garden said a liquidation petition has been filed against it for non-payment of a $205 million loan. In Europe, the German DAX is up 32 points to 17,589, while the FTSE 100 drops -50 points to 7,632.

 

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -96.82 points, or 0.25%, to 38,972.41.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 59.05 points, or 0.37%, to 16,035.30.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 27.14 points, or 1.34% to 2,056.11.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 (2^nd estimate) …est. +3.3%
• 8:30 AM ET                  GDP Consumer Spending for Q4…est. +3.2%
• 8:30 AM ET                  GDP Price Deflator for Q4…est. +1.5%
• 8:30 AM ET                  PCE Prices Prelim for Q4…est. +1.7%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Prelim Prices for Q4…est. +2.0%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Advance Goods Trade Balance for January
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET                Fed’s Bostic, Collins Participates in Fireside Chat
• 12:45 PM ET                Fed’s Williams Delivers Keynote Remarks

• Earnings After the Close: AAON AHT AI ALEX AMC AMPH AMRC BBSI BFLY CC CCS CDNA CDXS CRM CSTL DCGO DMRC DUOL DV EE EPR FIGS FWRD GEF GSBD HPQ INN IONQ JAZZ LAB LPSN MARA MBI MGNI MMSI MNST MQ MYRG NARI NTNX NTRA OKTA PARA PCT PETQ PSTG RCKY RRGB RVNC SBGI SBOW SHLS SILK SNOW SRPT STEM STR TALO TASK TPC TWI UMH USPH VCSA VYGR WHD WW XPER ZUO

• JP Morgan Global High Yield and Leveraged Conference, 2/26-2/28, in Miami, FL
• JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Corp Conference, 2/26-2/28, in Miami, FL
• KBW Fintech & Payments Conference, 2/27-2/29, in New York
• NAHB Internation Builders Show, 2/26-2/28 in Las Vegas, NV
• Piper West Coast Financials Services Conference, 2/28-3/1, in Las Vegas

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.76	78.11
Brent	-0.72	82.93
Gold	-7.90	2,036.20
EUR/USD	-0.003	1.0814
JPY/USD	0.13	150.64
10-Year Note	-0.03	4.286%

 

• Beyond Meat (BYND) Q4 EPS loss (-$2.40) vs. est. loss (-$0.88); Q4 revs fell -7.8% y/y to $73.68M vs. est. $66.66M; Q4 volumes rose 8%, compared to a 3.5% increase in Q3; sees FY24 revenue $315M-$345M vs. est. $343.82M, sees FY24 gross margin in mid-high teens range and sees FY24 capital expenditures $15M-$25M.
• Boston Beer (SAM) Dave Burwick will retire as President and Chief Executive Officer and member of the Board of Directors, with Michael Spillane to assume the President and CEO role; Q4 revs $393.7M vs. est. $413.8M; Q4 Depletions decreased 9%; and shipments decreased 12.2%.
• Bumble (BMBL) Q4 revs $273.6M missed ests $275.3M; said Q4 Total paying users across BMBL’s apps increased to 4 mln from 3.4 mln a year earlier; guides Q1 revs $262M-$268M vs. est. $277.9M.
• Coupang Inc. (CPNG) Q4 adj EPS $0.08 vs est. $0.06, adj EBITDA $294Mm vs est. $241.27Mm on revs $6.6B vs est. $6.442B, gr mgn 25.6%.
• Darling Ingredients (DAR) Q4 EPS $0.52 vs. est. $0.66; Q4 revs $1.63B vs. est. $1.68B; Q4 Combined adjusted EBITDA of $1,611.9B and Global ingredients business EBITDA of $1,109.9B.
• Dutch Bros (BRS) 8M share Secondary offering priced at $29.05.
• Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) Q4 AFFO $0.93 vs est. $0.93, adj EBITDA $331.4Mm vs est. $332.97Mm on revs $369Mm vs est. $361.15Mm; sees FY AFFO/shr $3.70-3.74 vs est. $3.76.
• Grocery Outlet (GO) 4 adj EPS $0.18 vs est. $0.16, adj EBITDA $50.9Mm on sales $989.8Mm vs est. $979.92Mm; guides FY net sales $4.3-4.35B vs est. $4.311B, comps +3-4%, gr mgn 31.3%, adj EBITDA $275-283Mm vs est. $267.76Mm and adj EPS $1.14-1.20 vs est. $1.14.
• Imax (IMAX) Q4 adj EPS $0.17 vs. est. $0.05; Q4 revs $86.0M, in-line with consensus $85.86M; seesFY24 total Adjusted EBITDA margin in High 30’s % and gross box office like 2023, system Installations 120 to 150 Systems.
• Light & Wonder (LNW) Q4 EPS $0.73 vs est. $0.67, adj EBITDA $302Mm vs est. $284.64Mm on revs $770Mm vs est. $746.57Mm.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) Q4 adj EPS $0.69 missed the $0.74 consensus on in-line revs $1.49B; Q4 total retail segment net sales increased 6.2%, with comparable retail segment net sales increasing 4.9%; comparable retail segment net sales increased 18.9% at Free People and 12% at Anthropologie and -13.6% at Urban Outfitters.

• Devon Energy (DVN) Q4 core EPS $1.41 vs. est. $1.40; averaged realized price without hedges fell to $44.93 per barrel of oil equivalent during the quarter, compared with $53.66 boe a year ago; Q4 production rose to 662,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), compared with 636,000 boepd in the year-ago quarter.
• First Solar (FSLR) Q4 EPS $3.25 vs est. $3.13 on revs $1.159B vs est. $1.318B; sees FY net sales $4.4-4.6B vs est. $4.561B, EPS $13.00-14.00 vs est. $13.33.

• Lemonade (LMND) Q4 EPS adj Ebitda -$28.9M vs. est. -$40.4M; Q4 revs $115.5M vs. est. $111.7M; guides Q1 revs below views and FY24 revenue $505M-$510M vs. est. $520.95M and adj EBITDA loss ($160M)-($155M).
• Redfin (RDFN) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.20) vs. est. loss (-$0.22); Q4 revs $218.1M vs. est. $220.32M; sees Q1 revenue $214M-$223M vs. est. $219.1M and sees Q1 net income ($72M)-($65M); Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss was $13.5M, compared to adjusted EBITDA loss of $40.2M y/y.

• Cytokinetics (CYTK) Q4 EPS ($1.38) vs est. ($0.97); guides FY24 revs $3-5Mm vs est. $3-5Mm, op exp $420-450Mm.
• Incyte (INCY) announced that the U.S. FDA has accepted for Priority Review the Biologics License Application for axatilimab, an anti-CSF-1R antibody, for the treatment of chronic graft-versus-host disease after failure of at least two prior lines of systemic therapy.
• Masimo Corp. (MASI) Q4, adj EPS $1.25 vs est. $0.87 on revs $548.9Mm vs est. $545.73Mm; sees Q1 revs $476-501Mm vs est. $514.38Mm and adj EPS $0.56-0.63 vs est. $0.73; sees FY revs $2.045-2.165B vs est. $2.103B and adj EPS $3.00-3.15 vs est. $3.32.
• PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT) Q4 EPS ($0.54) vs est. ($0.44), adj EBITDA ($23.284Mm) vs est. ($15.22Mm) on revs $43.581Mm vs est. $42.1Mm; sees FY revs approx $210Mm vs est. $204.46Mm, gr mgn approx 57-59% and adj EBITDA ($73Mm) vs est. ($65.82Mm).
• Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) Q4 revs $10.9Mm vs est. $14.35Mm.
• Universal Health (UHS) Q4 adj EPS $3.13 vs est. $2.88 on revs $3.704B vs est. $3.662B; guides FY revs $15.411-15.706B vs est. $15.032B, adj EBITDA $1.931-2.019B vs est. $1.861B and adj EPS $13.00-14.00 vs est. $11.75.

• Republic Service Group (RSG) Q4 adj EPS $1.41 vs. est. $1.29; Q4 revs $3.83B vs. est. $3.73B; sees FY24 adjusted EPS $5.94-$6.00 vs. est. $5.97 and FY24 revenue $16.1B-$16.2B above consensus $15.84B.
• Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) Q4 adj EBITDA ($28.989M) vs est. ($27.8M) on revs $59.991Mm vs est. $62.89Mm; guides Q1 revs $92-98M vs est. $98.57M, adj gr mgn 29-31%, adj EBITDA ($30M) – ($28M) vs est. ($20.08M).

• Baidu (BIDU) Q4 EPS adj profit was 21.86 yuan vs. est. 17.87 yuan; Q4 revs $4.92B vs. est. $4.91B; online marketing revenue grew 6% to 19.2 billion yuan; said ERNIE AI services have already started to contribute to Baidu’s revenues.
• eBay Inc. (EBAY) Q4 adj EPS $1.07 vs. est. $1.03; Q4 revs $2.6B vs. est. $2.51B; Q4 Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $18.6B, up 2% on an as-reported basis and nearly flat on an FX-Neutral basis; sees Q1 adj EPS $1.19-$1.23, vs. est. $1.13 and sees Q1 revenue $2.5B-$2.54B vs. est. $2.54B.
• Integral Ad Science (IAS) Q4 EPS $0.06 vs. est. $0.04; Q4 revs $134.29M vs. est. $131.3M; sees Q1 revenue $111M-$113M below consensus $119.73M and sees Q1 Adjusted EBITDA $28M-$30M.
• Jamf Holding (JAMF) Q4 adj op Inc $21.1Mm vs est. $20Mm on revs $150.6Mm vs est. $148.5Mm; sees Q1 revs $148-150Mm vs est. $150.66Mm and adj op income $19-20Mm vs est. $14.39Mm; sees FY revs $614.5-619.5Mm vs est. $641.83Mm and adj op Inc $89-93Mm vs est. $67.86Mm.
• Luminar Technologies (LAZR) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.36) vs. est. loss (-$0.19); Q4 revs $22.11M vs. est. $27.34M; says they expect to achieve a quarterly run rate of revenue in the mid-$30M range following our expected SOP and ramp with Volvo in 2H’24.
• TKO Group Holdings (TKO) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.16) on revs $614.0M vs. est. $625.1M; UFC segment delivered record financial results in 2023 and WWE live event avg attendance increased 34% in 2023; guides 2024 revs $2.575B-$2.65B; for 12 Mos ended Dec 31, 2023, co’s consolidated pre-tax results included $34.2m in costs.
• Zeta Global (ZETA) Q4 adj EBITDA $44.8Mm vs est. $41.97Mm on revs $210Mm vs est. $207.44Mm; guides Q1 revs $185-189Mm vs est. $185.92Mm and adj EBITDA $28.8-29.3Mm, adj EBITDA mgn 15.2-15.8%; sees FY revs $870-880Mm vs est. $851.22Mm.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.