Early Look

Friday, February 28, 2025

U.S. stock futures are looking at a higher open right now, looking to pare previous day losses, but a key inflation data report at 8:30 am et could determine the direction of stocks the remainder of the day. Stocks tumbled on Thursday, ending at the lows, led by weakness in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite which fell -2.78% while the S&P 500 declined -1.58%, both falling for the 5^th time in the last 6-days after President Trump said that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would come into force from March 4, undermining hopes he might reverse course after a previous delay. He also said Chinese imports would face a further 10% levy, prompting officials in Beijing to promise “all necessary measures” in response. The focus on trade tensions led to a broad risk-off decline across markets on Friday, pushing down almost all Asian stock markets and fueling declines in European futures. Concerns about a slowing U.S. economy also outweighed optimism arising from an upbeat earnings outlook from AI bellwether Nvidia, though shares reversed to the downside, below key technical levels, sending semis/AI/data center/power names lower as the SOX index fell -6%. With Nvidia out of the way, the focus shifts to the monthly Personal Consumption Expenditure data (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, due out on Friday morning at 8:30 am et. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbles -1,100 points or 2.88% to 37,155, the Shanghai Index declined -67 points or nearly 2% to 3,320, and the Hang Seng Index plunged -776 points or 3.28% to 22,941. In Europe, the German DAX is down -74 points to 22,476, while the FTSE 100 is up 26 points to 8,782. Bitcoin prices are down -4.4% to $80,500 after hitting overnight lows around $78,000 (lowest since early November), now down 25% from its all-time highs less than 6-weeks ago of $109,241 on 1/20. Overall, animal spirits are in retreat across global markets, with investors increasingly concerned about the economy and the threat of US tariff and its potential impact on companies, inflation and sentiment.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -193.62 points, or 0.45%, to 43,239.50.
• The Nasdaq Composite plunged-530.84 points, or 2.78%, to 18,544.42.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -34.51 points, or 1.59% to 2,139.66.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending M/M for January…prior +0.4%
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for January…est. +0.3% (prior +0.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for January…est. +2.5% (prior +2.6%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index M/M for January…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for January…est. +2.6% (prior +2.8%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Advance Goods Trade Balance for January
• 9:45 AM ET                  Chicago PMI for February…est. 40.6 (prior 39.5)
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for February

• Tesla (TSLA) has applied for a permit typically associated with chauffeur-operated services, according to California regulators, marking the first phase of a series of regulatory approvals required for the electric car maker to eventually launch a promised robotaxi service.

• Bloom Energy Corp. (BE) Q4 adj EPS $0.43 vs est. $0.30 on revs $572.4Mm vs est. $508.28Mm, gr mgn 38.3%, o p mgn 18.3%; guides FY revs $1.65-1.85B vs est. $1.671B, adj gr mgn approx 29% and adj op Inc $135-165Mm vs est. $126.44Mm.
• EOG Resources (EOG) Q4 adj EPS $2.74 vs. est. $2.57; Q4 revs $5.59B vs. est. $5.95B; Q4 Oil and gas volumes, and total per-unit operating costs better than guidance midpoints; announced $6.2 billion 2025 capital plan to grow oil production 3% and total production 6%; EOG and Bapco Energies entered into a strategic agreement in Bahrain.
• Sunrun (RUN) Q4 revenue $518.5M vs. est. $537.9M; said Storage Capacity Installed of 392 Megawatt hours in Q4, exceeding high-end of guidance range and representing 78% year-over-year growth, as storage attachment rates reach 62%; cash generation is expected to be in a range of $40M-$50M in 1Q25.
• Talen Energy (TLN) full year adjusted EBITDA of $770 million and adjusted free cash flow of $283 million, exceeding the 2024 guidance midpoints; reaffirming 2025 guidance; 2026 outlook unchanged.
• Tidewater Inc. (TDW) Q4 revs $345.1M vs. est. $340.1M and adj EBITDA $138.4M, in-line with ests; sees FY revenue $1.32B-$1.38B vs. est. $1.44B and gross margin 48% to 50%, vs. est. 50.1%.

• Green Dot Corp. (GDOT) Q4 EPS $0.40 vs. est. $0.35; Q4 revs $455.02M vs. est. $421.85M; sees FY25 EPS $1.05-$1.20 vs. consensus $1.50 and sees FY25 adjusted EBITDA $145M-$155M; said 2025 guidance expects embedded finance including BaaS and money movement to drive 2025 growth.
• Redfin Corp. (RDFN) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.29) vs. est. loss (-$0.23); Q4 revs rose 12% y/y to $244.3M vs. est. $242.5M; sees Q1 revenue $214M-$225M, below consensus $242.8M and sees Q1 total net loss is expected to be between ($94M-$83M); Q4 adj Adjusted EBITDA was $2.9M.
• Rocket Companies (RKT) Q4 adj EPS $0.04 vs. est. $0.03; Q4 total revs $1.76B and adj revs of $1.2B, the high end of guidance; guides Q1 revs $1.17B-$1.325B.

• Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.26) vs. est. loss (-$0.27); Q4 revs $73.69M vs. est. $72.17M; reaffirming Fy25 total product revenue guidance of $450M-$475M; Demand for Amtagvi continues with total product revenue of $73.7M in 4Q24 and $164.1M in FY24.
• Natera Inc. (NTRA) Q4 EPS ($0.41) vs est. ($0.42) on sales $476.1Mm vs est. $428.55Mm; guides FY revs $1.87-1.95B vs est. $1.819B, gr mgn approx 60-64%.
• Pacira BioSciences (PCRX) Q4 EPS $0.96 vs. est. $0.83; Q4 revs $187.3M vs. est. $185.38M; sees FY25 revenue $725M-765M vs. est. $747.55M and sees FY25 non-GAAP gross margin of 76%-78%, FY25 non-GAAP R&D expense of $90M-$105M, and FY25 non-GAAP SG&A expense of $290M-$320M.
• Progyny Inc. (PGNY) Q4 adj EPS $0.42 vs est. $0.10, adj EBITDA $47.514Mm vs est. $41.8Mm on revs $298.4Mm vs est. $276.685Mm; guides Q1 revs $300-318Mm vs est. $280.25Mm, adj EBITDA $53-57Mm vs est. $47.15Mm and adj EPS $0.44-0.47 vs est. $0.15; sees FY revs $1.175-1.225B vs est. $1.159B, adj EBITDA $188-201Mm vs est. $191.6Mm and adj EPS $1.52-1.62 vs est. $0.60.
• RadNet Inc. (RDNT) Q4 adj EPS $0.22 vs est. $0.20, adj EBITDA $75Mm vs est. $74.75Mm on revs $477.1Mm vs est. $461.79Mm; guides FY revs $1.825-1.875B vs est. $1.979B, adj EBITDA $265-273Mm vs est. $309.28Mm and FCF $70-80Mm.
• Solventum Corp (SOLV) Q4 adj EPS $1.41 vs est. $1.32 on revs $2.074B vs est. $2.05B; guides FY adj EPS $5.45-5.65 vs est. $5.49.
• TransMedics Group (TMDX) Q4 EPS $0.19 vs est. $0.16 on revs $121.6Mm vs est. $110.29Mm, gr mgn 59%; guides FY revs $530-552Mm vs est. $528.64Mm.

• Archer Aviation (ACHR) Q4 adj Ebitda $-94.8M while operating expense rose 16% y/y to $124.2M; posted net loss $198.1M, +82% y/y; guides Q1 adj Ebitda loss of (-$95M-$110M).
• MasTec Inc. (MTZ) Q4 EPS $1.44 vs. est. $1.26; Q4 revs rose 3.8% y/y to $3.4B vs. est. $3.32B; guides Q1 EPS $0.34 vs. est. $0.39; l 2025 Guidance Including Revenue of $13.45B, a 9% Increase Over 2024, GAAP Net Income of $327M to $366M, Adjusted EBITDA of $1.10B to $1.15B.
• Mosaic (MOS) Q4 adj EPS $0.45 vs. est. $0.57; Q4 revs $2.8B vs. est. $2.92B; said Q4 missed Wall Street profit expectations, hurt by lower potash prices and sales; Q4 net sales volume in its potash segment was at 2.2M tonnes, down about 15% y/y, while average sales price fell 18% to $199 per tonne; Q4 potash segment was down 25% y/y at $600M, while adjusted core profit for the segment was down 24% at $95M.
• Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) Q4 adj EBITDA ($23.194)Mm vs est. ($29.11)Mm on revs $84Mm vs est. $130.6Mm; guides Q1 revs $117-123Mm vs est. $135.67Mm, adj gr mgn 30-32%, adj EBITDA ($35)Mm-($33)Mm vs est. ($27.8)Mm.

• Dell Inc. (DELL) Q4 adjusted EPS $2.68 vs. est. $2.52; Q4 revs $23.9B vs. est. $24.57M; sees Q1 adj EPS $1.65 vs. est. $1.83B and revs $22.5B-$23.5B vs. est. $23.72B; guides FY26 midpoint in-line with consensus; raises annual dividend to $2.10, up 18% and announces $10B stock buyback plan.
• DoubleVerify (DV) Q4 adj EBITDA $73.8Mm vs est. $76.48Mm on revs $190.6Mm vs est. $196.9Mm; guides Q1 revs $151-155Mm vs est. $157.5Mm and FY revs about +10% vs est. +12.59%.
• Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) Q4 EPS $0.28 vs est. $0.48on revs $209.6Mm vs est. $205.4Mm, paid subs 9.5Mm, DAU 40.5Mm, MAU 1167Mm; guides Q1 revs $220.5-223.5Mm vs est. $221.07Mm and FY revs $962.5-978.5Mm vs est. $965.88Mm.
• Elastic N.V. (ESTC) shares jumped on results; Q3 adj EPS $0.63 vs est. $0.47, adj op Inc $64Mm vs est. $55.4Mm on revs $3825Mm vs est. $368.7Mm; sees Q4 revs $379-3814Mm vs est. $374.2Mm, adj op mgn approx 13.5% and adj EPS $0.36-0.37 vs est. $0.31.
• HP Inc. (HPQ) Q1 adj EPS $0.74, in-line with consensus and revs $13.5B vs. est. $13.364B; beat driven by strength in its personal systems segment and growing demand for artificial intelligence-capable systems; Personal Systems segment revs, home to its desktop and notebook PCs, rose 5% to $9.2B and commercial PS net revenue grew 10%; guides Q2 EPS $0.75-$0.85 (est. $0.86) and year EPS $3.45-$3.75 (est. $3.59).
• iHeartMedia (IHRT) Q4 adj EBITDA $246Mm vs est. $291.3Mm on revs $1.118B vs est. $1.166B; guides Q1 adj EBITDA $100-110Mm vs est. $120.25Mm.
• NetApp Inc. (NTAP) Q3 EPS $1.91, in-line with consensus $1.91 and revs $1.64B vs. est. $1.7B; guides Q4 EPS and revs below midpoint for Q4 and sees FY25 EPS $7.17-$7.27 vs. est. $7.33 and sees FY25 revenue $6.49B-$6.64B below consensus $6.67B.
• SoundHound AI (SOUN) Q4 adj EPS ($0.05) vs est. ($0.10) on revs $34.5Mm vs est. $33.69Mm; guides FY revs $157-177Mm vs est. $165.26Mm.