Early Look

Friday, January 2, 2026

U.S. futures are looking higher to kick off trading in 2026, trying to snap its 4-day losing streak as the “Santa Claus” rally looks to pick up steam, as positioning resets, tax selling is behind us, fresh capital gets put to work, institutions put on real exposure & trends tend to get set. Helping lift market sentiment, the White House out with trade related news amid reports that it was dropping plans to impose 92% antidumping tariffs on Italian pasta while also reports that President Donald Trump postponed higher tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities that were set to go into effect on Thursday, pointing to what the White House called “productive” trade negotiations. In Europe, the German DAX is up 52 points to 24,543, while the FTSE 100 index rises 51 points to 9,982 but hit the symbolic 10,000 points mark for the first time on Friday. It gained nearly 22% in 2025, its best year since 2009, outperforming Europe’s broad STOXX 600 index and the S&P 500. Markets were closed in Japan, mainland China, Thailand and New Zealand. Precious metals open the new year string as gold and silver build on their best trading years since 1979. Wall Street starts the New Year after its third consecutive year of double-digit percentage gains. The benchmark S&P 500 rose over 16%, while the Nasdaq Composite led gains with an over 20% jump. Treasuries fell on the first trading day of 2026, with the yield on 30-year bonds rising to the highest since early September.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -303.77 points, or 0.63%, to 48,063.29
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -177.09 points, or 0.76%, to 23,241.99
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -18.68 points, or 0.75% to 2,481.91

• Earnings After the Close: None

• Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference 2026, 1/5-1/7, in Miami, FL

• Last week’s NAAIM Exposure Index fell slightly to 92.93 from the prior week’s 95.08 – 10/29 Reading of 100.83 was the highest since 7-3-24 – 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q4) of 92.26.
• Italy’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that Washington had agreed to lower a proposed 92% duty on several well-known Italian pasta brands. It said tariffs would now be “far below” the level previously announced.
• First trading day performance of $SPX for the last 10 years: 2015 (Jan 02): -0.05%; 2016 (Jan 04): -1.40%; 2017 (Jan 03): +0.76%; 2018 (Jan 02): +0.72%; 2019 (Jan 02): +0.10%; 2020 (Jan 02): +0.94%; 2021 (Jan 04): -1.36%; 2022 (Jan 03): +0.58%; 2023 (Jan 03): -0.42%; 2024 (Jan 02): -0.56%; 2025 (Jan 02): -0.25%.

• In Furniture sector (LZB, ETD, W, RH, WSM): President Donald Trump postponed higher tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities that were set to go into effect on Thursday, pointing to what the White House called “productive” trade negotiations. The delay is for one year.
• BYD Corp. (BYDDF) said sales growth slowed to 7.73% in 2025, its weakest pace in five years; BYD’s total sales were down 18.3% in December from a year earlier, extending declines for a fourth month and marking the largest monthly drop in nearly two years. For the full year, sales rose by 7.73% to 4.6 million units, meeting its slashed target.
• Li Auto (LI) announced that it delivered 44,246 vehicles in December 2025. This brought the Company’s fourth-quarter deliveries to 109,194. As of December 31, 2025, Li Auto’s cumulative deliveries reached 1,540,215.
• Nio (NIO) said 48,135 vehicles were delivered in December 2025, increasing by 54.6% y/y; said 124,807 vehicles were delivered in the three months ended December 2025, increasing by 71.7% y/y; said 326,028 vehicles were delivered in 2025 in total, increasing by 46.9% y/y.
• Tesla (TSLA) December registrations in Europe weak: France down -66% YoY to 1,942, Sweden was down -71% YoY to 821 and Portugal fell -12.7% to 1,207; new car sales in Spain fell 44.2% in December from the same month in 2024 to 1,794 vehicles; full-year 2025 was also weak, down 37% in France and down 70% in Sweden, even after Tesla rolled out cheaper Model Y/3 trims. TSLA’s regional share slipped to 1.7% through Nov 2025 vs 2.4% a year ago.
• Xpeng (XPEV) said it delivered 37,508 vehicles in December 2025, representing a y/y increase of 2%. Total annual deliveries in 2025 reached 429,445 units, representing a 126% increase y/y; for the full year 2025, XPENG delivered 45,008 vehicles in overseas markets, up 96% y/y, and expanded its global footprint to 60 countries and regions.

• India is asking refiners for weekly disclosures of Russian and U.S. oil purchases, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, adding that they expect Russian crude imports to dip below 1 million barrels per day as New Delhi seeks to clinch a trade deal with Washington.
• NextEra Energy (NEE) said late Wednesday to sell common stock up to $4B; enters equity distribution agreement post which it may sell common stock up to $4 billion.
• Sable Offshore (SOC) said a federal appeals court allowed the restart of its contested oil pipeline on Wednesday.

• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) highlighted on Friday progress in the company’s next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, or HBM4, saying customers have praised its competitiveness. Samsung Electronics’ co-CEO Jun Young-Hyun, who leads the chip division, said in a New Year address that HBM4 had drawn strong customer praise for its differentiated competitiveness, with some customers saying, “Samsung is back.”
• Vertiv Holdings (VRT) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclay’s, saying its shares currently offer a good entry point following recent volatility.