Early Look

Friday, January 10, 2025

U.S. futures are rebounding off overnight losses, paring gains as S&P futures are nearly flat, as stocks look to this morning’s payroll jobs data for December as the next clue to the pace and aggressiveness of Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile Los Angeles wildfires destroy thousands of homes, over 34,000 acres as the death toll rises to 10 in one of the most devastating natural disasters in the state’s history. Over 180,000 have been evacuated, and 200,000 under warnings as the Palisades Fire between Santa Monica and Malibu on the city’s western flank and the Eaton Fire in the east near Pasadena already rank as the most destructive in Los Angeles history. U.S. stocks return from yesterday’s market closure in observance of former President Jimmy Carter’s passing, after having closed mostly higher in choppy trading on Wednesday, despite a continued climb in long-dated Treasury yields amid ongoing anxiety over inflation. Investors continued to sell off the 30-year Treasury bond for a sixth straight day, pushing its yield to 4.931%, its highest closing level since Nov. 1, while the 10-year rate rose for a fourth straight day to 4.691%, its highest closing level since April 25 of last year. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -414 points to 39,190, the Shanghai Index dropped -42 points to 3,168, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -176 points to 19,064. In Europe, the German DAX is up 72 points to 20,389, while the FTSE 100 falls -26 points to 8,293. WTI Crude oil prices up about 3% or $2.21 to $76.12 per barrel on track for a third straight week of gains as traders focused on potential supply disruptions from more sanctions on Russia and Iran. Over the three weeks to Jan. 10, Brent climbed by 8% while WTI jumped 9%. In stock news airline Delta (DAL) reports better results this morning while chipmaker TSM rises on revenue numbers overnight.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 106.84 points, or 0.25%, to 42,635.20.
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -10.80 points, or 0.06%, to 19,478.88.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -10.86 points, or 0.48% to 2,238.94.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for December…est. +135K (prior +194K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for December…est. +5K (prior +22K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for December…est. 4.2%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/m for December…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Confidence, prelim-Jan…est. 73.8
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 12:00 PM ET                Quarterly grain output (corn, soy, wheat)
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she favors fewer rate cuts in 2025 than she had anticipated just a few months ago, following strong employment data and lingering inflation.
• China’s central bank suspends purchases of treasury bonds in open markets.
• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -2.7 vs 1.2 last week. Bulls fall to 34.7% from 35.4%, Neutrals fall to 28% from 30.4%, Bears rise to 37.4% from 34.2%
• This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is: 65.38 (from 64.10) – note last week’s 64.10 reading is the lowest since 8/14.

• Costco (COST) December U.S. comp sales ex-gas, FX +9.8%, vs. est. +5.2% and December total comp sales +7.4%, above est. +3.7%; December E-commerce comparable sales up 34.4%; said total and comparable sales were positively impacted by approximately 1.5% because of the shift in e-commerce sales.
• Delta Airlines (DAL) Q4 adj EPS $1.85 vs. est. $1.76 and revs rose 5.7% y/y to $14.44B vs. est. $14.16B; guides Q1 adj EPS $0.70-$1.00 vs. est. $0.76 and FY EPS guidance above $7.35 vs. est. $7.45.
• Nevada reports November statewide gaming win down 4.21% to $1.32B; Nevada’s Gaming Control Board also reported November Las Vegas Strip gaming win down 3.91% to $788.74M compared to last year.
• Tesla (TSLA) launched a new version of the Model Y, its best-selling car, in China on Friday, as the new Model Y is priced from 263,500 yuan ($35,900), 5.4% more expensive than the previous version in China.

• Joby Aviation (JOBY) and Archer Aviation (ACHR) downgraded at JP Morgan saying eVTOL stocks have been vastly outperforming the broader market.

• Franklin Covey (FC) Q1 EPS $0.09 on revs rose 1% y/y to $69.1M vs. est. $70.2M; affirms FY25 revenue view of $295M-$305M vs. est. $298M and affirms FY25 adjusted EBITDA view of $40M-$44M.
• Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) Q4 revenue $1.96B vs. estimate $1.77B (up from $1.2B y/y) and Q4 EPS $0.93 vs. estimate $0.91; Global investment banking revenue surged 26% to $86.8B in 2024, led by N.A., which recorded a 33% increase; said Q4 investment banking revenue soared nearly 73% to $986.8M, while capital markets revenue rose 34% to $651.7M; earned higher fees from deal advisory and underwriting activity remained strong; raises quarterly dividend to 40c per share from 35c.

• Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) announced new clinical data from its ongoing Phase 1/2 ACHIEVE trial of DYNE-101 in patients with myotonic dystrophy type 1.
• Globus Medical (GMED) forecasts 2025 net sales $2.66B-$2.69B vs. est. $2.66B and 2025 adj EPS $3.40-$3.50 vs. est. $3.43; and guides prelim Q4 net sales about $657.0M vs. est. $635.5M.
• IGM Biosciences (IGMS) shares slump 69% after halting the development of its Imvotamab and IGM-2644 treatments for autoimmune diseases, with multiple analysts downgrading the stock.
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) announced a strategic reorganization focused on key value drivers. Over the course of 2025, the strategic reorganization will result in a net workforce reduction of approximately 27%. The company expects to incur charges of approximately $8M associated with the reorganization; said Most phase 3 Haelo study evaluating ntla-2002 for HAE to complete enrollment in second half of 2025.

• The Biden administration intends to implement one more round of export restrictions on AI chip exports from companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD), Bloomberg reported late Wednesday.
• Maravai Lifesciences Holdings (MRVI) said it expects to report a total 2024 rev near mid-point of previously announced guidance range of $255.0M-$265.0M.
• Penguin Solutions (PENG) shares rise Q1 adj EPS $0.49 vs. est. $0.39; Q1 revenue $341M vs. est. $319.99M; posted a 49% year-over-year increase in Advanced Computing revenue; cuts FY25 EPS view to $1.30-$1.70 from $1.50-$1.90 while reaffirms FY25 revenue growth view 10%-20%.
• Roku (ROKU) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at MoffettNathanson with a $55 tgt.
• Supermicro (SMCI) announced it is commencing shipments of max-performance servers featuring Intel (INTC) Xeon 6900 series processors with P-cores.