Early Look
Tuesday, January 14, 2025
Futures |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
Dow |
133.00 |
0.31% |
42,656 |
S&P 500 |
23.75 |
0.40% |
5,898 |
Nasdaq |
108.00 |
0.52% |
21,055 |
U.S. futures are looking higher, adding to modest gains for the S&P 500 on Tuesday after reports the Trump team studies gradual tariff hikes under emergency powers and as China’s Central bank reiterates easing pledges amid policy dilemmas. However, investors will be keeping a sharp eye on PPI inflation data at 8:30 am et and then CPI data the following day as to clues about direction of future interest rate moves by the Fed. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell -0.3% on the report that the Trump team is mulling gradual tariffs. The Nasdaq fell on Monday, while the benchmark S&P 500 bounced off a two-month low and eked out a slight gain as U.S. Treasury yields stayed elevated with investors dialing back expectations on the pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields edged higher Monday, rising 3 bps to 4.8% as U.S. inflation is expected to remain elevated. December’s producer price index (PPI) inflation data at 8:30 am et is expected to rise 0.4%, the same as in November, with core PPI accelerating to 0.3% from 0.2% (with a greater increase on a y/y basis). Meanwhile, CPI inflation is due Wednesday, with a forecast of a small acceleration in the 12-month figure to 2.9% from 2.7% and the core reading repeating November’s 3.3% pace. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled again, falling -718 points to 38,474, the Hang Seng Index however jumped 345 points to 19,219, and the Shanghai Composite surged 80 points to 2.54% to 3,240. In Europe, the German DAX is up 157 points to 20,289, while the FTSE 100 rises 10 points to 8,234.
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
- The S&P 500 Index climbed 9.18 points, or 0.16%, to 5,836.22.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 358.67 points, or 0.86%, to 42,297.12.
- The Nasdaq Composite dropped -73.53 points, or 0.38%, to 19,088.12.
- The Russell 2000 Index advanced 5.17 points, or 0.24% to 2,194.40.
Economic Calendar for Today
- 6:00 AM ET NFIN Small Business Optimism for December
- 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:30 AM ET Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for December…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
- 8:30 AM ET Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for December…est. +3.4% (prior +3.0%)
- 8:30 AM ET PPI Core (ex: food & energy) M/M for December…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
- 8:30 AM ET PPI Core (ex: food & energy) Y/Y for December…est. +3.8% (prior +3.4%)
- 8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 10:00 AM ET Fed’s Schmid Gives Remarks in Kansas City
- 1:05 PM ET Fed’s Williams Gives Opening Remarks
- 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
Earnings Calendar:
- Earnings Before the Open: None
- Earnings After the Close: APLD CVGW RMCF
Other Key Events:
- Goldman Sachs Global Macro Conference Asia Pacific 2025, 1/14-1/15, in Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs Financial Technology Conference 2025, 1/13-1/14, in New York
- ICR Conference 2025, 1/13-1/15, in Orlando, FL
- JP Morgan 43rd Annual Healthcare Conference, 1/12-1/16, in San Francisco, CA
- Needham 27th Annual Growth Conference, 1/14-1/15 Lotte NY Palace Hotel
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
Nymex |
-0.22 |
78.60 |
Brent |
-0.32 |
80.69 |
Gold |
1.80 |
2,680.40 |
EUR/USD |
0.0015 |
1.0259 |
JPY/USD |
0.41 |
157.88 |
10-Year Note |
-0.008 |
4.786% |
World News
- Members of President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming economic team are discussing slowly ramping up tariffs’ month by month, a gradual approach aimed at boosting negotiating leverage while helping avoid a spike in inflation, according to people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported. One idea involves a schedule of graduated tariffs increasing by about 2% to 5% a month and would rely on executive authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the people said.
- China’s central bank again vowed to help the economy grow this year, firming expectations of more monetary easing, sending China markets higher. Officials at the People’s Bank of China said they will ramp up support for the economy with measures like lower interest rates and reducing the amount of cash lenders must hold as reserves to free up liquidity. They also again promised to defend the yuan and warned against the risk of an overheated bond market.
- The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index rose 3.4 points last month to 105.1, following the sharpest monthly increase on record in November. Seven of the 10 index components improved.
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
- KB Homes (KBH) Q4 EPS $2.52 vs est. $2.45 on revs $1.999B vs est. $2.008B, housing adj gr mgn 20.9%, homes delivered +17%; guides FY25 housing revs $7.00-7.50B vs est. $6.988B, avg selling price $488-498K, homebuilding operating income as percent of revs approx 10.7% assuming no inventory-related charges, housing gr mgn 20.0-21.0% assuming no inventory-related charges.
- Nomad Foods (NOMD) provides 2025 guidance ahead of presentation at the 27th annual ICR conference saying for the full year 2025, Nomad Foods expect organic revenue growth of 1%-3%; management remains confident in its ability to achieve its previously issued full year 2024 guidance.
- Signet Jeweler (SIG) forecasts Q4 adj. Oper income $337M to $347M, below prior forecast $397M to $427M and guides Q4 total sales $2.32B to $2.34B, also below forecast $2.38B to $2.46B.
- Archer Daniels (ADM) was downgraded to Underperform from neutral at Bank America.
- Las Vegas Sands (LVS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Energy, Industrials and Materials
- AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) awarded $55.3M order for Switchblade Systems as part of U.S. Army’s Directed Requirement (DR) for Lethal Unmanned Systems (LUS).
- Celanese (CE) was double upgraded to Buy from underperform at Bank America on valuation.
- Diamondback Energy (FANG) Q4 average unhedged realized prices were $69.48 per barrel of oil, $0.48 per mcf of natural gas & $19.27 per barrel of NGLS; Q4 average realized hedged prices were $68.72 per barrel of oil, $0.82 per mcf of natural gas and $19.27 per barrel of NGLS
- Wabtec Corp (WAB) said has agreed to buy Evident’s inspection technologies division for $1.78B.
Financials
- B Riley (RILY) shares gain after the company releases a quarterly report for three months ended June 2024, after delaying it for months due to issues stemming from its investment in retailer Franchise Group. The co says it will return to a normal filing cadence in 2025; reports net loss of $14.35 per share for Q2 vs. $1.55 profit y/y.
- AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (AB) announced that preliminary assets under management (AUM) decreased to $792B during December 2024 from $813B at the end of November. Market depreciation, coupled with net outflows across all three channels (Institutions, Retail and Private Wealth), resulted in a 2.6% decline m/m.
- Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) reported preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1,846B, a decrease of -0.6% m/m. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $12.6B in the month. Non-management fee earning net inflows were $1.3B and money market net inflows were $12.0B. AUM was negatively impacted by unfavorable market returns which decreased AUM by $42B.
- Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. (VRTS) reported preliminary assets under management (AUM) of $175.0B and other fee earning assets of $2.3B for total client assets of $177.3B as of December 31, 2024. The decrease in AUM reflects net outflows in institutional accounts and open-ended funds as well as negative market performance.
- United Rentals (URI) to buy H&E Equipment (HEES) for $92 per share in cash, reflecting a total enterprise value of approximately $4.8 billion, including approximately $1.4 billion of net debt.
- In the insurance industry (ALL, AIG, MCY, CB, TRV, PGR), LA wildfires losses could top $30b for insurance industry; the Palisades and Eaton blazes remained largely uncontrolled as fires destroyed more than 12,000 structures.
Healthcare
- Danaher (DHR) said for Q4, estimated rev anticipated to increase in low-single digit percent range y/y.
- Inogen (INGN) guides prelim Q4 revs $79.0M to $80.0M, vs. est. $73.9M; raises FY24 revenue view to $334.5M-$335.5M from $329M-$331M vs. consensus $329.62M.
- OrthoPediatrics (KIDS) Q4 preliminary revs $52.7Mm vs est. $50.73Mm; guides FY25 revs $235-242Mm vs est. $239.95Mm and adj EBITDA $15-17Mm vs est. $20.14Mm.
- Regenxbio (RGNX) shares rise after saying it has partnered with Japan’s Nippon Shinyaku Co to develop and commercialize two gene therapies, RGX-121 and RGX-111, to treat Mucopolysaccharidoses Diseases; RGNX will receive $110 mln as upfront payment and up to $700 mln as milestone payments from Nippon Shinyaku.
- Teladoc Health (TDOC) announced a new collaboration with Amazon (AMZN) to expand access to Teladoc’s industry-leading chronic condition programs.
Technology, Media & Telecom
- ACM Research (ACMR) raises 2024 revenue view to $755M-$770M from $725M-$745M and sees 2025 revenue $850M-$950M, vs. consensus $902.95M.
- Applied Digital (APLD) shares rose 30% early after investment bank Macquarie to invest up to $5 bln in APLD’s AI data centers, the WSJ reported; Macquarie will get a 15% stake in APLD’s high-performance computing business.
- Broadcom Inc (AVGO) enters new $7.5B five-year unsecured revolving credit facility
- IAC Inc. (IAC) announced its Board of Directors has approved a plan to spin off IAC’s full stake in Angi (ANGI) to IAC shareholders. IAC will also reorganize its leadership: Joey Levin will leave his role as IAC CEO and become an advisor to the company, with the transition expected to occur upon the completion of the spin-off.
- ServiceTitan (TTAN) reports Q3 revs $199.3M; sees Q4 revenue $199M-$201M vs. consensus $193.58M; sees Q4 income from operations $3M-$4M; sees FY25 revenue $761.6M-$763.6M vs. consensus $755.37M.
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.