Early Look
Tuesday, January 28, 2025
Futures |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
Dow |
12.00 |
0.03% |
44,916 |
S&P 500 |
16.25 |
0.26% |
6,062 |
Nasdaq |
97.50 |
0.46% |
21,355 |
U.S. futures are looking at a slight rebound after tumbling Monday as Chinese startup DeepSeek raised the prospect of cheaper AI development then US companies, sparking a tech selloff that saw the semiconductor index (SOX) fall around -10%, led by AI face NVDA as shares fell about -17%. While the tech concern remains, attention turns back to trade as President Donald Trump said he is looking to enforce tariffs that are “much bigger” than 2.5%. Trump said last night that “I have it in my mind what it’s going to be, but I won’t be setting it yet, but it’ll be enough to protect our country,” according to a Bloomberg report. Asked about a report that incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent favored starting with a global rate of 2.5%, Trump said he didn’t think Bessent supported that and wouldn’t favor it himself, and said he wanted a rate “much bigger” than 2.5%. Trump pledged tariffs on specific sectors, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, copper and aluminum, and strongly suggested he could also impose them on automobiles from Canada and Mexico, countries he’s already threatened with 25% across-the board tariffs as soon as February 1. The S&P 500 closed about -1.5% lower in back-to-back losses and posted its largest one-day point and percentage decline since Dec. 18. The Nasdaq Composite finished roughly 3.1% lower in back-to-back losses and also recorded its largest one-day point and percentage decline since Dec. 18. In addition to tariffs and AI concerns, markets prep for tomorrow’s FOMC policy meeting and results coming this week from AAPL, META, MSFT and TSLA along with inflation data (PCE) Friday.
The US dollar strengthens against most major currencies after comments from US President Trump and his Treasury Secretary stoked concern about widespread US trade tariffs. The Japanese yen and euro are among the weakest of the G-10 currencies, each falling around 0.6% against the greenback. Treasury yields are bouncing slightly while Bitcoin rebounds 1.35% to $102,725 after falling below $98K yesterday. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -548 points or 1.39% to 39,016, while both the Shanghai Index and Hang Seng Index were closed. In Europe, the German DAX is up 135 points to 21,418, while the FTSE 100 rises 48 points to 8,552. West Texas Intermediate oil recovered after sinking by 2% on Monday, as traders weighed risks to crude supplies from Libya’s major ports against President Trump’s desire for universal trade tariffs.
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
- The S&P 500 Index tumbled -88.96 points, or 1.46%, to 6,012.28.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 289.33 points, or 0.65%, to 44,713.58.
- The Nasdaq Composite plunged -612.47 points, or 3.07%, to 19,341.83.
- The Russell 2000 Index declined -23.72 points, or 1.03% to 2,284.02.
Economic Calendar for Today
- 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:30 AM ET Durable Goods Orders for December…est. +0.6%
- 8:30 AM ET Durable Goods Ex: Transportation for December…est. +0.4%
- 8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 9:00 AM ET Monthly Home Prices M/M for November
- 9:00 AM ET CaseShiller 20 city index for November
- 10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence for January…est. 105.6
- 10:00 AM ET Richmond Fed Manufacturing for January…prior (-10)
- 10:30 AM ET Dallas Fed Services for January…prior 13.8
- 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes
- 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
Earnings Calendar:
- Earnings Before the Open: ADNT BA CAC CVLT GM IVZ JBLU KMB LMT NVR PCAR PII PROV RCL RTX SASR SYF SYY WRLD XRX
- Earnings After the Close: ASH AX BUSE BXP CFB FCF FFIC FFIV HAFC HLI LC LFUS LRN MANH NXT PFS PKG QRVO RNST SBUX SYK TRMK UMBF VBTX
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
Nymex |
0.44 |
73.61 |
Brent |
0.41 |
77.49 |
Gold |
10.60 |
2,749.00 |
EUR/USD |
-0.0063 |
1.0428 |
JPY/USD |
0.86 |
155.35 |
10-Year Note |
+0.037 |
4.566% |
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
- General Motors (GM) Q4 adj EPS $1.92 vs. est. $1.83; Q4 revs $47.7B vs. est. $44.46B; forecasts 2025 adj EPS $11 to $12, vs. est. $10.60; guides FY adj Ebit $13.7B-$15.7B vs. est. $13.58B and guides FY net income $11.2B-$12.5B vs. est. $10.63B.
- Honda Motor (HMC) plans to launch a small electric vehicle priced below $30,000 in North America by as early as 2026, the Nikkei newspaper said on Tuesday, as it plays catch-up in the battery-powered car market.
- Kimberly Clark (KMB) Q4 adj EPS $1.50/$4.93B vs. est. $1.51/$4.86B; Volumes in Kimberly-Clark’s North America business grew 1.9% in the quarter ended Dec. 31; sees FY adj EPS to rise by a mid-to-high single-digit percentage on a constant-currency basis, compared with estimates of a 3.2% increase to $7.58 per share.
- Polaris (PII) Q4 adj EPS $0.92 vs. est. $0.90; Q4 revs $1.76B vs. est. $1.68B; said expects 2025 sales to be down one to four percent versus 2024; expects margin headwinds from negative mix, planned reductions in production leading to negative absorption in addition to the restoration of the Company’s employee profit-sharing program.
- Smithfield Foods (SFD) downsized its 26.1 million share IPO below expectations, pricing at $20 per share, with Smithfield and parent WH Group each selling roughly 13 million shares. The companies had planned to offer 34.8 million shares at between $23 and $27 each.
Energy, Industrials and Materials
- Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) said it has reached a tentative four-year collective agreement with Unifor representing approximately 1,200 employees at CPKC in Canada.
- Crane Inc. (CR) Q4 adj EPS $1.26 vs est. $1.22 on sales $544Mm vs est. $533.96Mm, adj op mgn 17.7%; guides FY25 adj EPS $5.30-5.60 vs est. $5.54.
- Graco (GGG) Q4 adj EPS $0.64 vs. est. $0.77; Q4 revs $548.7M vs. est. $556.4M; initiates full year outlook for 2025 of low single-digit sales growth on an organic, constant currency basis.
- Lightbridge (LTBR) announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with Oklo (OKLO), an advanced nuclear power and fuel recycling company.
- Marten Transport (MRTN) Q4 EPS $0.07 vs est. $0.06 on revs $230.432Mm vs est. $233.58Mm.
- Nucor Corp. (NUE) Q4 sales $7.08B vs. est. $6.76B; Q4 total tons shipped to outside customers +2% and average sales price per ton down -10%; said expect Q1 earnings in the steel mills and steel products segments to be similar as compared to Q4; sees Q1 earnings in the raw materials segment expected to decrease in relative to Q4.
- PotlatchDeltic (PCH) Q4 adj EPS $0.07 vs. est. loss (-$0.01); Q4 revs $258.1M vs. est. $246.79M; Q4 Timberlands Adjusted EBITDDA decreased $1.8M q/q and Northern harvest volumes decreased due to normal seasonality.
- Talen Energy (TLN), other parties to reach reliability, must run a settlement agreement for Brandon shores and H.A. Wagner power plants; settlement will provide fixed payments at $145M annually, $35M annually to operate Brandon shores and H.A. Wagner, respectively.
Financials
- AGNC Investment (AGNC) Q4 EPS $0.10 vs est. $0.42 on NII $115Mm vs est. $214.43Mm.
- Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) Q4 FFO/SHR $1.81 vs est. $2.39 on revs $788.9Mm vs est. $780.17Mm; sees FY adj FFO/SHR $9.23-9.43 vs est. $9.27.
- Equity Lifestyle (ELS) Q4 normalized FFO/SHR $0.76 vs est. $0.76; guides Q1 and FY normalized FFO/share $0.80-0.86 vs est. $0.82 and $3.01-3.11 vs est. $3.09, respectively.
- Goldman Sachs Group (GS) files for mixed shelf offering; size not disclosed.
- Preferred Bank (PFBC) Q4 EPS $2.25 vs est. $2.39 on NII $69.173Mm vs est. $66.39Mm, NIM $4.06%.
- Synchrony (SYF) Q4 EPS $1.91 vs. est. $1.92; Q4 revs $3.8B vs. est. $3.83B; Q4 tangible book value per share $34.07; Q4 CET1 capital ratio 13.3%; Q4 net charge-offs 6.45%; guides FY25 revs $15.2B-$15.7B vs. est. $18B.
- Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) Q4 EPS $1.95 vs. est. $1.90; Q4 Total deposits $66.3B, Book value per share $58.24, net interest margin (NIM), net interest income (NII) $666.5M and provision for credit losses $60.0M.
- W. R. Berkley (WRB) Q4 operating EPS $1.13 vs. est. $0.95; Q4 revs $3.67B vs. est. $2.98B; Q4 combined ratio was 90.2%; Q4 ROE 30.9% and Operating Return on Equity of 24.3%; Q4 gross premiums written $3.5B.
- WSFS Financial (WSFS) Q4 core EPS $1.11 vs. est. $0.99; Q4 revs fell -1.1% y/y to $261.5M; Net interest income $178.2M vs. $178.1M y/y, and net interest margin 3.8% vs. 3.99% y/y.
Healthcare
- Akero Therapeutics Inc (AKRO) commences a $300M public stock offering.
- 89bio Inc (ETNB) commences a $250M public offering.
- Sartorius (SOAGY) reported its annual underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of 945M euros ($985.54M), topping ests of 932.7M; Q4 orders for its key Bioprocess Solutions division (BPS) rose 23.1% to 856.7M euros; shares of RGEN DHR move higher in reaction.
Technology, Media & Telecom
- President Donald Trump said Microsoft (MSFT) was in talks to acquire TikTok, shortly after the social media app went dark last week. He further suggested that he would like to see a bidding war over the popular platform. Trump previously said that he was in discussions with several parties about a potential acquisition of TikTok and expects to decide on the app’s future within the next 30 days, Reuters reported.
- Ciena (CIEN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.
- Juniper Networks (JNPR) and Liberty Global (LBTYA) said Tuesday they have completed a joint proof-of-concept for the delivery of a “seamless user experience” for customers using data and applications spread across multiple cloud environments
- Sanmina (SANM) authorizes added buyback of up to $300M shares; Q1 adj EPS $1.44 vs est. $1.36 on revs $2.01B vs est. $1.98B; guides Q2 revs $1.9-2.0B vs est. $1.979B and adj EPS $1.30-1.40 vs est. $1.38.
- SAP AG (SAP) said it was more optimistic about its financial results this year due to faster growth in cloud computing and artificial intelligence; guided operating profit in 2025, on a constant currency basis, to be between 10.3 billion euros and 10.6 billion euros ($10.75 billion-$11.06 billion) compared to prior view of about 10.2 billion euros, total revenue of more than 37.5 billion euros and more than 21.5 billion euros in cloud revenue.
- SoundHound (SOUN) files $500M mixed securities shelf.
- Xerox (XRX) Q4 adj EPS $0.36 vs. est. $0.49; Q4 revs $1.61B vs. est. $1.58B; sees 2025 revenue growth in low single digits from $6.22B in 2024 and sees 2025 adj operating margin of at least 5.0% and free cash flow $350M-$400M.
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.