Early Look
Thursday, January 30, 2025
Futures |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
Dow |
100.00 |
0.22% |
44,989 |
S&P 500 |
24.25 |
0.40% |
6,091 |
Nasdaq |
141.50 |
0.66% |
21,664 |
U.S. futures are looking higher, bouncing back from declines on Wednesday as market attention turns to quarterly earnings. Shares of META and TSLA rallied overnight following results while Dow component MSFT declined on softer sales. This morning UPS guidance and commentary sink shares more than -11%, in managed care Cigna shares fall over -10% on higher loss expenses and machinery giant CAT declines on lower guidance. German European bank DB declines after softer profits, while a handful of tech companies including IBM, LRCX, and WDC are looking higher following their results, while NOW, MXL fall. Stocks and bonds fell in a choppy session Wednesday after the Fed held rates unchanged as expected, with Chair Powell saying officials were not in a hurry to lower rates. Markets were jolted earlier by the removal of a reference in the Fed statement to inflation making progress. Then equities and Treasuries pared some losses after Powell said the sentence referring to inflation was not meant to send a signal. Attention turns this morning to the first estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday. In other news, an American Airlines regional plane collided with a military helicopter as it flew into Ronald Reagan airport in Washington. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 99 points to 39,513, while the Shanghai Index and the Hang Seng Index remained closed for Lunar Year holiday. In Europe, the German DAX is up 72 points to 21,709, while the FTSE 100 gains 30 points to 8,586. Note the European Central bank (ECB) policy announcement is at 8:15 am et, with a 25-bps rate cut expected. Gold prices are up +0.85% back above $2,800, nearing its all-time highs, the dollar is higher; yields are down 5bps for the 10-yr. Apple (AAPL) reports after the close tonight.
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
- The S&P 500 Index slipped -28.39 points, or 0.47%, to 6,039.31
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -136.83 points, or 0.31%, to 44,713.52
- The Nasdaq Composite dropped -101.26 points, or 0.51%, to 19,632.32
- The Russell 2000 Index declined -5.77 points, or 0.25% to 2,283.09.
Economic Calendar for Today
- 8:15 AM ET European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement
- 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 220K
- 8:30 AM ET Continuing Claims…est. 1.89M
- 8:30 AM ET Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 Advance Reading…est. 2.6% (prior 3.1%)
- 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q4-Advance…(prior 3.7%)
- 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q4-Advance…est. +2.4% (prior +1.9%)
- 8:30 AM ET Core PCE Prices-Q4 Advance…est. +2.5% (prior +2.2%)
- 10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales M/M for December…est. 0.0%
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
Earnings Calendar:
- Earnings Before the Open: ABG ALGM AOS AVY BC BFH BHLB BX CAH CAT CFR CI CIVB CMCSA CNX CRS CSWI DGX DOV DOW DT FCFS FLWS FRME IP KEX LAZ LHX LUV MA MAN MBUU MMC MO MPX MUR NOC NTCT ONEW OSK PH PHM RES ROP SCSC SHW SIRI SNDR STBA TMO TSCO UPS VLO
- Earnings After the Close: AAPL ABCB AJG APPF ATGE BKR BOOT BZH COUR DECK EMN FBIZ FHI FISI GEN GSIT HIG HTH INTC KLAC LPLA OLN ORC PFSI PMT PPG RMD SKYW STEL TBBK V VIAV WY X
Other Key Events:
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Jan-Final
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
Nymex |
0.10 |
72.72 |
Brent |
-0.01 |
77.57 |
Gold |
23.60 |
2,817.10 |
EUR/USD |
-0.0022 |
1.0397 |
JPY/USD |
-0.73 |
154.47 |
10-Year Note |
-0.052 |
4.502% |
World News
- An American Airlines (AAL) flight collided in mid-air with a military helicopter in Washington DC, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said. It happened while on approach to Runway 33 at Reagan Washington National Airport around 9pm local time, the FAA says in a statement to CBS News. The plane crashed in the Potomac River, which weaves through DC, according to the DC Fire and EMS Department.
- The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 7 vs 14 last week. Bulls fall to 41% from 43.4%, Neutrals fall to 25% from 27.1%, Bears rise to 34% from 29.4%.
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
- Tesla (TSLA) Q4 adj EPS $0.73 vs. est. $0.75 and Q4 revs $25.70B vs. est. $27.26B; said expect the vehicle business to return to growth in 2025; said expect model y to once again be the best-selling vehicle, of any kind, globally for full year 2024; Q4 gross margin 16.3% and op margin 6.2%; Q4 gross margin stood at 16.3% vs est. of 19.03%; expects capital expenditure to exceed $11 billion this year and in each of the following two fiscal years.
- Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Q4 adj EPS $0.54 vs. est. $0.58; Q4 revs $2.90B vs. est. $2.85B; Q4 Macao Adjusted Property EBITDA of $571M, Marina Bay Sands Adjusted Property EBITDA of $537M.
- Levi Strauss (LEVI) Q4 adj EPS $0.50 vs est. $0.48 on revs $1.8B vs est. $1.728B, adj EBIT mgn 13.4%; guides FY revs -1% to -2% vs est. +1% and adj EPS $1.20-1.25 vs est. $1.23.
- Meritage Homes (MTH) Q4 EPS $4.72 vs est. $2.49 on home closing revs $1.6B vs est. $1.578B; homes closed units 4,044, home orders units 3,304; guides FY25 home closing volume 16,250-16,750 units, home closing revs $6.6-6.9B vs est. $6.868B.
- Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) Q4 adj EPS $4.57, vs est. $4.32 on revs $16.607B vs est. $16.714B; guides FY sales $15.8B vs. est. $16.261B and adj EPS $10.00 vs est. $11.60.
Energy, Industrials and Materials
- Ball Corp. (BALL) board approves $4B share repurchase authorization and quarterly dividend.
- Caterpillar (CAT) Q4 adj EPS $5.14 vs. est. $5.05; Q4 revs $16.2B vs. est. $16.38B; forecasts fy25 sales and revenues slightly lower y/y; expect Q1 sales and revenues to be lower than 1q 2024; anticipate lower adjusted operating profit margin in Q1 vs. y/y; anticipate capital expenditures of about $2.5b in 2025.
- CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) Q4 adj EPS $1.21 vs. consensus $1.11; Q4 revs fell -0.9% y/y to $4.18B vs. est. $4.42B; lower revs primarily driven by lower volume and pricing in truckload services, partially offset by higher pricing in our ocean services; Q4 adjusted operating margin increased 940 bps to 26.8%; adj operating margin, excluding restructuring and loss on divestiture, increased 1,020 bps to 26.9%.
- Dow Inc. (DOW) Q4 operating EPS 0c vs. est. $0.24; Q4 revs $10.41B vs. est. $10.53B; said it will lay off 1,500 employees globally; workforce reduction is a part of the company’s plan to take additional actions to deliver $1B in cost cuts; announced it had begun reviewing some of its European assets, focusing on its polyurethane business.
- Liberty Energy (LBRT) Q4 adj EPS $0.10, in-line with consensus and revs $943.5M vs. est. $978.43M; in Q1, anticipate modest sequential increase in revenue and adjusted ebitda.
- Moog (MOG.A) has been selected by Lockheed Martin (LMT) to provide custom actuators for the Patriot Advanced Capability – 3 Missile Segment Enhancement contract with the U.S. Army.
- Tetra Tech (TTEK) Q1 adj EPS $0.35 vs. est. $0.33, adj op Inc $138Mm vs est. $130Mm on revs $1.42B vs est. $1.101B; guides Q2 revs $1.0-1.1B vs est. $1.111B and EPS $0.30-0.33 vs est. $0.33; sees FY revs $4.365-4.765B vs est. $4.623B and adj EPS $1.37-1.52 vs est. $1.44.
- UPS (UPS) Q4 adj EPS $2.75 vs. est. $2.53; Q4 revs $25.3B vs. est. $25.42B; expects revenue to be approximately $89.0B (vs. est. $95B) and op margin to be approximately 10.8%; is planning capital expenditures of about $3.5B, dividend payments of around $5.5B, subject to board approval, and share repurchases of around $1.0B; reached an agreement in principle with its largest customer to lower its volume by more than 50% by the second half of 2026.
- United Rentals (URI) Q4 adj EPS $11.59 vs est. $11.65, adj EBITDA $1.9B vs est. $1.883B on revs $4.095B, vs est. $3.936B; sees FY revs $15.6-16.1B vs est. $15.82B and adj EBITDA $7.2-7.45B vs est. $7.41B.
Financials
- Ameriprise (AMP) Q4 adj EPS $9.36 vs est. $9.05 on revs $4.5B vs est. $4.45B.
- Annaly Capital (NLY) Q4 EPS $0.78 vs est. $0.67 on NII $187.288Mm and sales $1.338B vs est. $1.261B.
- AXIS Capital (AXS) Q4 operating EPS $2.97 vs. est. $2.58; Q4 adj combined ratio 89.5% and expense ratio 13.7%; Q4 Annualized return on average common equity of 20.7% and annualized operating ROACE of 18.2%; Q4 gross premiums written increased by $191 million, or 11%.
- Deutsche Bank (DB) better-than-expected performance in investment banking for Q4 was overshadowed by a drop in profit and shares slumped as the German group said it expects costs to remain heavy; announced plans to buy back 750M euros ($780.90M) in shares; ditched its cost target for 2025, saying it wanted to make investments in business; aims for a cost-to-income ratio of below 65%, compared with previous plans for less than 62.5%.
- Heritage Insurance (HRTG) said it expects Q4 to be its best earnings quarter of the year; Q4 results include an estimated $57.0M impact from Hurricane Milton in Q4 2024, which includes retained catastrophe losses of $40.0M and a net reinstatement premium of $17.0M; sees Q1 catastrophe losses from Cali fires of $35M-$40M.
- Raymond James (RJF) Q1 adj EPS $2.93 vs est. $2.69 on revs $3.54B vs est. $3.47B; authorized common stock repurchases up to $1.5B.
- Robert Half (RHI) Q4 EPS $0.53 vs. est. $0.55; Q4 revs $1.38B vs. est. $1.39B; Q4 net income $54.29M vs. est. $56.8M.
- Schwab (SCHW) declares an 8% increase in quarterly common stock dividends and declares preferred stock dividends.
Healthcare
- Cardinal Health (CAH) Q2 adj EPS $1.93 vs. est. $1.77; Q2 revs fell -3.8% y/y to $55.26B, vs. est. $54.95B; Q2 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Products Revenue $50.85B, Global Medical Products and Distribution revenue $3.15B; Q2 negative cash from operating activities $400M vs. positive $1.19B y/y; raises FY EPS to $7.85 to $8.00, saw high end of $7.75 to $7.90, vs. est. $7.87.
- Cigna (CI) Q4 adj EPS $6.64 vs. est. $7.82; Q4 revenue $65.65B vs. est. $63.18B; forecasts 2025 adj EPS of at least $29.50, below estimates of $31.50; Q4 medical care ratio – the percentage of premiums spent on medical care – came in at 87.9%, up from 82.2% a year ago vs. expected a ratio of 84.84% for the reported quarter.
- Ironwood Pharma (IRWD) sees FY25 revenue $260M-$290M vs. consensus $340.2M; initiates apraglutide NDA submission, highlights compelling new data and update corporate structure to position for the future; says data shows increase in patients achieving enteral autonomy.
Technology, Media & Telecom
- Meta Inc. (META) Q4 EPS $8.02 vs. est. $6.78; Q4 revs rose 21% y/y to $48.39B vs. est. $46.98B; Q4 advertising revenues rose 21% y/y to $46.78B vs. est. $45.65B; Q4 Operating margin 48% vs. 41% y/y; Q4 average Family service users per day 3.35B, +5% y/y; said they are not providing a full year 2025 revenue outlook but guides Q1 revs $39.5B-$41.8B vs. est. $41.67B; forecasts 2025 total expenses $114B-$119B vs. est. $108.01B.
- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Q2 EPS $3.23 vs est. $3.11 on revs $69.6B vs est. $68.784B; azure and other cloud services revs +31% vs. est. 31.8%, intelligent cloud revs $25.5B vs est. $25.98B; said bookings climbed 67%, partly due to OpenAI commitments.
- IBM Corp. (IBM) Q4 EPS $3.92 vs est. $3.75 on revs $17.553B vs est. $17.542B, gr mgn 59.5%; infrastructure revs $4.3B, consulting revs $5.2B, software revs $7.9B, generative AI book of business now stands at over $5B inception-to-date, up nearly $2B from Q3.
- SoftBank (SFTBY) is in discussions to invest $15B-$25B in Open AI, Deepa Seetharaman of the Wall Street Journal reported. Some of the equity investment may be used for OpenAI’s commitment to Stargate, which is a joint venture with SoftBank and others, a person familiar with the matter told the Journal. Stargate intends to invest as much as $500B in AI data centers for OpenAI over the next four years.
- Celestica (CLS) Q4 adj EPS $1.11 vs. est. $1.07; Q4 revs $2.55B vs. est. $2.53B; Q4 adj Ebit margin 6.8%; guides Q1 revenues $2.475B-$2.625B and year $10.7B (vs. est. $10.59B) on EPS $4.75 (vs. est. $4.47); said they have been awarded a 1.6 Terabyte switching program with a second Hyperscaler customer.
- Lam Research (LRCX) Q2 adj EPS $0.91 vs est. $0.88 on revs $4.38B vs est. $4.311B, adj gr mgn 47.5%; guides Q3 revs $4.35-4.95B vs est. $4.339B, adj gr mgn 47-49%, adj EPS $0.90-1.10 vs est. $0.88.
- MaxLinear (MXL) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.09) vs. est. loss (-$0.13); Q4 revs $92.2M vs. est. $90M; sees Q1 revenue $85M-$105M vs. consensus $93.23M and sees Q1 adjusted gross margin 57.5%-60.5%.
- ServiceNow (NOW) Q4 EPS $3.67 vs. est. $3.66 on in-line revs of $2.96B; Q4 subscription revenues of $2.86B, rising 21% y/y growth, 21% in constant currency; Current remaining performance obligations of $10.27B as of Q4, representing 19% y/y growth, 22% in constant currency; remaining performance obligations of $22.3 billion as of Q4 2024, representing 23% y/y growth, 26% in constant currency; reports added $3B for share buyback program.
- Teradyne (TER) Q4 EPS $0.95 vs. est. $0.91; Q4 revs $753M vs. est. $740.91M; sees Q1 EPS 58c-68c vs. consensus 62c and sees Q1 revenue $660M-$700M, vs. consensus $692.73M.
- Western Digital (WDC) Q2 adj EPS $1.77 vs est. $1.78 on revs $4.285B vs est. $4.262B, gr mgn 35.4%; sees Q3 revs $3.75-3.95B vs est. $3.996B and adj EPS $0.90-1.20 vs est. $1.47; forecasts Q3 adj gross margin 31.5% to 33.5%, vs. est. 36.5%.
- Wolfspeed (WOLF) Q2 adj EPS ($0.95) vs est. ($1.02) on revs $180.5Mm vs est. $179.9Mm, gr mgn -21%; guides Q3 revs from cont ops $170-200Mm vs est. $193.59Mm
- Dolby Labs (DLB) Q1 adj EPS $1.14 vs est. $1.05 on revs $357Mm vs est. $346.15Mm; guides Q2 revs $355-385Mm vs est. $387.2Mm, adj gr mgn 91%, adj EPS $1.19-1.34 vs est. $1.35.
- Snowflake (SNOW) this week discussed an acquisition of Redpanda, a data analysis software startup valued at around $500M in 2023, according to a person who has been part of the talks https://www.theinformation.com/articles/snowflake-in-talks-to-acquire-analytics-startup-redpanda
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.