Early Look

Friday, June 6, 2025

U.S. stock futures are rebounding after the late Thursday pullback, with S&P futures (Spuz) up +0.4% at 5,970, near the overnight highs (and off the lows 5,930) ahead of the important May Nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 am. The jobs data will hopefully take the attention off the President Trump and Elon Musk social media feud that exploded Thursday, distracting investors from signs of progress toward better US-China trade relations. Still, the S&P remains roughly 3% from all-time highs as the jobs data (today), inflation data (CPI) next week) and tariff deal deadlines loom. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 187 points to 37,741, the Shanghai Index was up 1 point to 3,385, and the Hang Seng Index declined -114 points to 23,792. In Europe, the German DAX is down -44 points to 24,279, while the FTSE 100 is up 2 points to 8,813. Bitcoin prices are rebounding, rising 3.33% to $103,850 (off lows just above $100,000). Tesla (TSLA) shares are rebounding about 5% early after plunging 15% on Thursday following Trump’s public feud with Musk, including threats to cut off government contracts with Musk’s companies. Reports indicate White House aides scheduled a call today with Elon Musk to broker a peace after the two men have been embroiled in a feud over legislation that encompasses the president’s tax bill agenda (though the WH Chief of Staff just denied that report). A slew of soft economic data this week has raised concerns about an economic slowdown caused by trade uncertainties, with investors looking to May non-farm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. next. In stock news overnight, Broadcom (AVGO) shares fell 3% after the networking and custom AI chipmaker’s quarterly revenue forecast failed to impress investors, while retailer Lululemon (LULU) tumbles -20% after cutting its annual profit target.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -108.00 points, or 0.25%, to 42,319.74
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -162.04 points, or 0.83%, to 19,298.45
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -1.13 points, or 0.05% to 2,097.35

• 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for May…est. 120K (prior 167K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for May…est. (-5K) vs. prior (-1K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for May…est. 4.2%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/M for May…est. +0.3%
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 3:00 PM ET                   Consumer Credit for April…est. $10.0B

• India’s RBI cuts key rate by 50bps to 5.5%; est. 5.75%, in a surprise cut.

• DoorDash Inc. (DASH), Grubhub Inc. and Uber Technologies (UBER) Uber Eats are settling a 2021 lawsuit against New York City over a cap on fees the meal-delivery services charge restaurants. The meal-delivery services agreed to drop their challenge to the cap once the city adjusts the law and final terms are submitted to Manhattan federal court by Dec. 31, according to a filing Wednesday.
• Guess Inc. (GES) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.44) vs. est. loss (-$0.69); Q1 revs grew 9% y/y to $647.8M vs. est. $631.4M; sees Q2 EPS $0.11-$0.21 below the consensus $0.31 and sees Q2 revenue up 2.9%-4.7% vs. est. $759.2M; expects GAAP and adj operating margins between 3.9% and 4.6% and 4.4% and 5.1%, respectively.
• McDonald’s (MCD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital and cut tgt to $315 from $346 amid growing concerns that McDonald’s domestic comp growth profile will not rebound as much as expected over the remainder of 2025 after the company’s recent chicken strips launch has received predominantly negative customer feedback to date.
• Mission Produce (AVO) Q2 adj EPS $0.12 vs. $0.14 y/y and Q2 revenue $380.3M vs. $297.6M last year, while sees Q3 industry volumes up 10%-15%; sees FY25 capital expenditures $50M-$55M.
• Vail Resorts (MTN) Q3 EPS $10.54 vs. est. $9.97; Q3 revs $1.295B; Q3 net income $414.3M vs. est. $377.8M; narrows FY25 reported EBITDA view to $840M-$870M from $827M-$889M and said it expects FY25 net income $264M-$298M.
• Zumiez (ZUMZ) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.79) vs. est. loss (-$0.77); Q1 revs rose 3.9% y/y to $184.34M vs. est. $182.54M; said Q1 comparable sales increased 5.5%; sees Q2 EPS loss (-24c)-(-9c), vs. consensus $0.06 and sees Q2 revenue $207M-$214M, vs. consensus $211.02M; announces $15M stock repurchase program.

• QUANEX (NX) Q2 adj EPS $0.60 vs. est. $0.47; Q2 revs $452.48M vs. est. $439.3M; backs FY25 revenue view $1.84B-$1.86B (est. $1.85B) and affirms FY25 adjusted EBITDA view $270M-$280M; said confident in ability to mitigate any potential margin impact related to tariffs; any unexpected weakness in demand in 2H may be offset by realization of cost synergies faster than originally planned.
• Citigroup opened “positive catalyst watches” on both Weyerhaeuser (WY) and PotlatchDeltic (PCH) ahead of the raising of import duties on Canadian Lumber, which the firm expects by August. Both stocks sharply outperformed in Q1 in expectation of tariffs on Canadian Lumber that ultimately didn’t materialize on President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” However, Citi points out that since the beginning of April, the stocks have meaningfully underperformed as lumber has drifted lower.

• Invitation Homes (INVH) upgraded to Buy and downgrading AMH downgraded to Neutral, as believes: 1) INVH’s earnings and SSNOI growth will catch-up to AMH within the next 6-12 months; 2) INVH’s SSNOI guidance is more conservative; 3) May will represent the peak of AMH’s new-lease growth, which may surprise some; and 4) INVH is trading at an ~30bp discount to AMH on an implied cap-rate basis following its recent underperformance since Q1 results, which is on the lower end of its historical range.

• Vera Therapeutics (VERA) shares tumble after rival Otsuka’s experimental drug for a type of kidney disease showed over 50% reduction in protein in patient’s urine in a late-stage trial. VERA’s shares surged 60% on Monday after its experimental kidney disease drug, atacicept, helped significantly reduce harmful levels of proteins in the urine in a late-stage study. Vera’s drug atacicept reduced protein levels in patients’ urine by 46%, compared with a 7% reduction with a placebo.
• 23andMe will hold a second auction for its cache of DNA data with an opening bid of $305M from a group led by the company’s former CEO, Anne Wojcicki – Bloomberg

• Applied Materials (AMAT) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley saying China and ICAPS are derisked and undemanding valuation leads to the upgrade.
• Braze Inc. (BRZE) Q1 EPS $0.07 vs. est. $0.05; Q1 revs $162.1M vs. est. $158.6M; said Q1 dollar-based net retention for all customers for the trailing 12 months ended April 30, 2025 and April 30, 2024 was 109% and 117%, respectively; total customers increased to 2,342 as of April 30, 2025 from 2,102 y/y; cuts FY26 EPS view to $0.15-$0.18 from $0.31-$0.35 (est. $0.34) and raises rev outlook.
• DocuSign (DOCU) Q1 adj EPS $0.90 vs. est. $0.81; Q1 revs rose 8% y/y to $763.7M vs. est. $748.92M; Q1 billings rose 4% y/y to $739.6M; sees Q2 revenue $777M-$781M vs. consensus $775.58M; sees Q2 subscription revenue $760M-$764M and billings $757M-$767M; announces $1.0B shares repurchase.
• Rubrik Inc. (RBRK) Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.15) vs. est. loss (-$0.32); Q1 revs rose 49% y/y to $278.5M vs. est. $260.4M; sees Q2 adjusted EPS loss (35c)-(33c) vs. est. loss (-$0.36) on revs $281M-$283M vs. est. $272.98M; Q1 subscription ARR grew 38% y/y to $1.18B; said had 2,381 customers with $100K or more in Subscription ARR, up 28% year-over-year in Q1.
• Samsara (IOT) Q1 adj EPS $0.11 vs. est. $0.06; Q1 revs rose 32% y/y to $366.9M v. est. $351.44M; raises FY26 EPS view to $0.39-$0.41 from $0.32-$0.34 (est. $0.33) and boosts its FY26 revenue view to $1.547B-$1.555B from $1.523B-$1.533B prior (est. $1.53B); concluded Q1 with $1.54B in ARR, representing 31% y/y growth.
• ServiceTitan (TTAN) Q1 revenue rose 27% y/y to $215.7M and EPS; Q1 revenue was higher than estimates by 3.4%, and EPS was higher than estimates by 50%; guides Q1 revenue $228–$230M.