Early Look

Monday, March 3, 2025

After tumbling last week and February, U.S. stocks are looking at a higher open to kick off the new week and trading month as attention remains on tariffs and its potential impact on the slowing economy. Last week, the S&P 500 fell 0.98%, the Nasdaq declined 3.47%, and the Dow climbed 0.95% while for the month of February, the S&P 500 fell 1.43%, the Nasdaq declined 3.97%, and the Dow fell 1.58%. Stocks slipped last week after a meeting between the US and Ukraine went South, leading to the leader of Ukraine leaving the White House without a peace deal, while the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast showed the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5% on February 28, a big “about face” from the expected rise of +2.3% on February 19. The growth concerns, alongside stubbornly high inflation data, weighed on sentiment further. In tariff news today, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Mexico/Canada have done a reasonable job on the border; notes there will be tariffs on Mexico/Canada on Tuesday but says President Trump will determine at what levels; China tariffs are set until they end fentanyl trafficking into the US – Fox News. In other news, Bitcoin prices jump over 9% to $92,500, off overnight highs above $94,800 (after falling as low as $78,273 on Friday morning) and Ethereum +11% at $2,472 after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that his recent executive order on digital assets directed his team to create “a Crypto Strategic Reserve” that will hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other Cryptocurrencies such as XRP, Dogecoin, Solana and Cardano. Bitcoin had has fallen 16% in the past week, its biggest weekly drop since the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange in November 2022. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 629 points to 37,785, the Shanghai Index fell -4 points to 3,316, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 64 points to 23,006. In Europe, the German DAX surges 273 points to 22,825, while the FTSE 100 is up 53 points to 8,862.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 601.41 points, or 1.39%, to 43,840.91.
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 302.86 points, or 1.63%, to 18,847.28.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 23.41 points, or 1.21% to 2,163.07.

• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for February…est. 50.5 (prior 50.9)
• 10:00 AM ET                Construction Spending M/M for January…est. 0.0% (prior +0.5%)
• 12:35 AM ET                Fed Bank of St. Louis President Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy

• Earnings After the Close: ADMA ASTS BDSX BRCC CON DAVE DSP EBS EKSO GCT GTLB GUTS HSII IPI JRVR KBDC MRC NATL OKTA QSI RNGR RPAY SENS SND TDUP WTI WSR

• TD Cowen 45^th Annual Healthcare Conference, 3/3-3/5, in Boston, MA

• Prada (PRDSY) is moving closer to buy Versace from Capri Holdings (CPRI) after agreeing to a price of nearly $1.6B, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Prada and Capri could finalize a deal for the Italian luxury clothier this month https://tinyurl.com/3njdtctn
• Thor Industries (THO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America with a price target of $125, up from $110.
• NIO (NIO), XPeng (XPEV), and Li Auto (LI) shares are lower even as the three Chinese electric-vehicle makers delivered almost 70,000 vehicles in February, up 112% y/y; NIO’s deliveries jumped 62% last month from a year earlier, XPeng’s deliveries soared 570% to 30,453, boosted by sales of its relatively new P7+ and MONA MO3 models, and Li Auto’s deliveries rose 30%.

• Sunnova Energy International Inc (NOVA) to reduce annual cash costs by $70M; said substantial doubt exists regarding ability to continue as “going concern” for at least 1 year; hired a financial advisor to help manage certain aspects of debt management & refinancing efforts.
• Shell (SHEL) is exploring a potential sale of its chemical’s assets in Europe and the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter, part of a continuing drive to refocus the company’s business on its most profitable operations, the WSJ reported.

• Ares Management Corporation (ARES) announced that it has completed its acquisition of the international business of GLP Capital Partners Limited, excluding its operations in Greater China, and certain of its affiliates. With the addition of GCP International, Ares’ leading global alternative investment platform managed over $525 billion in assets, including more than $115 billion in its global Real Assets business, as of December 31, 2024.

• Protagonist (PTGX) and Takeda (TAK) announce positive topline results from phase 3 verify study of Rusfertide in patients with polycythemia vera.

• Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) announces a $25M bond offering
• MasTec Inc (MTZ) files for mixed shelf; size not disclosed.
• MP Materials Corp (MP) files for mixed shelf; size not disclosed.

• Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) is drawing takeover interest from ON Semiconductor (ON), Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter https://tinyurl.com/2u9t6zhh
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) said Friday it will be building its third campus in California’s Silicon Valley. Plans call for the campus, with construction expected to start this year, to be nearly 3 million square feet. The expansion, Super Micro said, would accelerate production of liquid-cooled services for data center, and create new jobs.
• Trimble (TRMB) announced its collaboration with STMicroelectronics (STM) to deliver precise positioning solutions for automotive and Internet of Things applications.
• Comcast Corp (CMCSA) files for mixed shelf; size not disclosed.