Early Look

Thursday, March 13, 2025

U.S. stock futures are looking flat, bouncing off overnight losses as concerns over whether lawmakers in Washington will avert a government shutdown over the weekend added to uncertainty around the outlook for the economy. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said late yesterday that Democrats would not provide the necessary votes to pass a short-term funding package, which would shut the government down Friday night. A funding bill in the U.S. Senate that will keep the government running through September 30 is now in focus, with one day to go before a partial shutdown. The Republican-controlled House passed the bill earlier in the week. Gold futures extend recent gains, bouncing off 3-week lows to move back to within its all-time highs, while the dollar and Treasury yields edge higher. Recession fears, uncertainty over tariffs and government shutdown, geopolitical concerns all keeping investors on edge.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 put a stop to the recent bleeding with the help of “cooler” than expected consumer prices (CPI) inflation reading for February that allayed some inflation worries and helped rule out any possibility the Federal Reserve may need to resume rate hikes at some point. Another inflation reading is on deck again today with the producer price index (PPI), which is expected to show a dip from the prior month figures. Only a handful of earnings last night but ADBE, AEO, PATH and Sentinel (S) in the retail and software sectors decline on disappointing figures. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index slipped -29 points to 36,790, the Shanghai Index fell -13 points to 3,358, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -137 points to 23,462. In Europe, the German DAX is up 53 points to 22,730, while the FTSE 100 is up 32 points to 8,573.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -82.55 points, or 0.20%, to 41,350.93.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 212.36 points, or 1.22%, to 17,648.45.
• The Russell 2000 Index climbed 2.88 points, or 0.14% to 2,026.47.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.9M (prior 1.897M)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline M/M for February…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline Y/Y for February…est. +3.3% (prior +3.5%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for February…est. +0.3% (prior +0.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for February…est. +3.5% (prior +3.6%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $25B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ALLO ATYR BEAT BLNK BZFD DOCU EVCM GRWG JYNT KRG LCUT PD PANL PLBY RBRK SMTC SOL TTAN ULTA VERI VUZI WPM XPOF ZUMZ

• Calavo Growers (CVGW) Q1 adj EPS $0.33 vs. est. $0.29; Q1 revs rose 21% y/y to $154.39M vs. est. $161.55M; co said although import tariffs from Mexico introduce additional costs, we do not expect to have a meaningful impact on our operations.
• Tesla (TSLA) is working with Chinese tech giant Baidu (BIDU) to improve the performance of its advanced driving assistance (ADAS) system in China, two people with knowledge of the matter, Reuters reported.

• Cummins Engine (CMI), Paccar (PCAR) shares are lower this morning after the EPA said it is starting efforts to reverse the Biden administration’s vehicle emissions rules that would force automakers to build a rising number of electric vehicles. Jefferies noted that if 2027 regulations are rescinded, the prebuy will not happen leaving the industry to revert to underlying transport economics. Without a prebuy, sees downside risk to estimates.
• Freight Car America (RAIL) Q4 revs $137.7M vs. est. $152.02M; Sees 4,500 to 4,900 railcar deliveries in FY25 and sees Fy revs $530M-$595M; Q4 Gross margin of 15.3% with gross profit of $21.0M, compared to gross margin of 9.6% with gross profit of $12.1M y/y.
• Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) announces strategic acquisition of floating production storage and offloading vessels in Gulf of America; reduces annual operating costs by approximately $60 million, reaffirms 2025 capital expenditure guidance.
• Sunnova Energy (NOVA) is preparing restructuring talks with creditors that could include filing for bankruptcy, Wall Street Journal reports late Wednesday, citing sources; the company holds roughly $8.5 billion in debt.

• Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham.

• Intel Corp. (INTC) appointed Lip-Bu Tan as Chief Executive Officer, effective March 18. He succeeds Interim Co-CEOs David Zinsner and Michelle (MJ) Johnston Holthaus.
• SentinelOne (S) shares fell overnight; Q4 EPS loss (-$0.22) vs. est. loss (-$0.21); Q4 revs rose 29% y/y to $225.5M vs. est. $222.33M; Q4 Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) increased 27% to $920.1M as of January 31, 2025; Q4 Customers with ARR of $100,000 or more grew 25% to 1,411; sees FY26 revenue $1.007B-$1.012B vs. est. $1.03B and sees FY26 adjusted gross margin 78.5%-79.5%.
• UiPath Inc. (PATH) Q4 adj EPS $0.26 vs. est. $0.20; Q4 revs rose 4.5% y/y to $423.6M vs. est. $424.9M; Q4 adj gross margin 87%; Q4 subscription revs +22% y/y to $215.2M; sees Q1 revs $330M-$335M below consensus of $367.4M and guides Q1 annualized recurring revenue $1.69B-$1.69B vs. est. $1.71B.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) files mixed securities shelf.
• Microsoft (MSFT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson.