Early Look

Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	111.00	0.35%	32,166
S&P 500	14.25	0.38%	3,903
Nasdaq	35.50	0.29%	12,090

 

 

U.S. futures are pointing to a slightly higher open, building on gains from Monday ahead of key monthly inflation data at 8:30 AM ET. Contagion fears from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and closing of Signature Bank appear to have subsided for the time being as major US banks are broadly higher in the premarket (SCHW, FRC, WAL, etc.). The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report has expectations for monthly headline CPI to rise +0.4% m/m (after +0.5% in Jan) and y/y prices to rise +6.0% (vs. last month +6.4%). On a core basis, or excluding food & energy, CPI in expected to rise +0.4% (vs. +0.4% in Jan) and rise +5.5% y/y (vs. +5.6% in Jan). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -610 points to 27,222, the Shanghai Index fell -23 points to 3,245, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -448 points to 19,247. In Europe, the German DAX is up 70 points to 15,030, while the FTSE 100 slips about -20 points to 7,524. Treasury yields pointing higher, with the 10-yr above 3.61%, rising over 10-bps while the dollar also rebounds, and commodities slide with oil and gold trading down. All eyes on the CPI report at 8:30 AM as a hotter report could make life very difficult for the Fed, possibly forcing their hand to raise rates further despite disruption in the banking industry, while a cooler report can give them the flexibility of possibly holding off rate hikes at next week’s meeting.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -5.83 points, or 0.15%, to 3,855.76.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid -90.50 points, or 0.28%, to 31,819.14.

·     The Nasdaq Composite climbed 49.96 points, or 0.45%, to 11,188.84.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -28.40 points, or 1.60% to 1,744,30.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     6:00 AM ET           NFIB Small Business Optimism for Feb

·     7:45 AM ET           ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

·     8:30 AM ET           Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M for February…est. +0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET           CPI Ex: Food & Energy (core) M/M for February…est. +6.0%

·     8:30 AM ET           Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for February…est. +0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET           CPI Ex: Food & Energy (core) Y/Y for February…est. +5.5%

·     8:55 AM ET           Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales

·     11:00 AM ET         Cleveland Fed CPI for February

·     4:30 PM ET            API Weekly Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: AGEN AXGN BLDE CAL KOPN LUCD ML VIRI

·     Earnings After the Close: APEI BODY CASA CXDO GES LEN LVLU PFMT PRCH S SKLZ SMAR VCSA YTEN

 

Other Key Events:

·     Barclay’s Global Healthcare Conference, 3/14-3/16, in Miami, FL

·     JPMorgan Industrials Conference, 3/13-3/16, in New York

·     Loop Capital 2023 Investor Conference, 3/13-3/14, in New York

·     Mizuho Annual Energy Summit, 3/12-3/14, in Napa Valley, CA

·     MKM Roth 35th Annual Conference, 3/12-3/14, in CA

·     Oppenheimer Annual Healthcare Conference (virtual), 3/13-3/15

·     Wolfe FinTech Forum, 3/14 in New York

·     China Industrial output and Retail Sales for February

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-1.86	72.94
Brent	-1.92	78.85
Gold	-10.30	1,906.20
EUR/USD	-0.0014	1.0716
JPY/USD	0.94	134.13
10-Year Note	+0.102	3.617%

 

 

World News

·     Feb. Small Business Optimism Rises to 90.9; vs. est. 90.3.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Airlines, Consumer

·     Alaska Air (ALK) said it sees 1q capacity up 11%-14% vs 2022; sees 1q revenue up 29%-32% vs 1q 2022; sees 1q CASM flat to down 2% vs 1q 2022; expectations for economic fuel cost per gallon were raised to $3.35 to $3.45 from $3.15 to $3.35, and the adjusted pre-tax margin guidance range was revised to down 6% to down 3% from down 4% to down 1%.

·     Delta Airlines (DAL) reaffirmed its Q1 adjusted earnings per share forecast as still sees adjusted EPS 15c to 40c vs est. 33c; sees Q1 revs $11.8B-$12.1B vs. est. $12.1B; said sees one-time pilot pact charges of $0.8B.

·     Southwest Airlines (LUV) continues to estimate a negative revenue impact in the range of $300 million to $350 million in first quarter 2023; sees q1 2023 operating revenue, year-over-year up 21% to 23%; sees 1q CASMS up about 10%; now estimates its 2023 capital spending to be approximately $4.0 billion; sees 1q economic fuel costs per gallon $3.10 to $3.20.

·     United Airlines (UAL) sees Q1 adj EPS loss (-60c-$1.00) vs. est. $0.69; continues to see a strong demand environment and now expects first quarter 2023 total operating revenue to be up approximately 51% versus first quarter 2022, higher than the Company’s initial approximately 50% expectation provided in January.

·     Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT) shares rise as a three-judge panel of the California state appeals court on Monday ruled that Proposition 22, the ballot measure passed by state voters in 2020 that classified Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) drivers as independent contractors rather than as employees, should remain state law. The judges overturned the ruling last year by a California Superior Court judge, who said the proposition was “unenforceable.”

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     According to Korean Economic Daily, Tesla suspended its partnership with BYD battery due to three reasons: 1) quality issues with BYD blade battery, particularly the self-ignition concerns 2) consideration of US IRA tax credit and 3) BYD has NEV business in the European Union, India and Southeast Asia which will compete directly with Tesla – Daiwa.

·     NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) files to sell $500M in common stock.

·     Pinnacle West (PNW) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

·     Tutor Perini (TPC) awarded $75 million U.S. air force academy building renovations project; contract value will be included in company’s first-quarter 2023 backlog.

 

Financials

·     Moody’s late Monday put six banks on review for possible downgrade as it also said it will withdraw ratings on collapsed Signature Bank. Warnings were on First Republic (FRC), Intrust Financial, UMB Corp (UMBF), Zions Bancorp (ZION), Western Alliance (WAL) and Comerica (CMA).

·     Credit Suisse (CS) finds ‘material’ control lapses after sec prompt bank’s accountant issues “adverse opinion” on internal control; chairman takes pay cut, executive board forego bonuses according to Bloomberg.

·     Oportun Financial (OPRT) 4Q adj EPS $0.14 vs est. $0.23 on revs $262Mm vs est. $263Mm, adj EBITDA ($34)Mm; guides 1Q revs $245-250Mm vs est. $275.5Mm, annualized net charge-off rate 12.35-12.65% and adj EBITDA ($49)Mm-($44)Mm; sees FY revs $975Mm-1B vs est. $1.15B, annualized net charge-off rate 11-12% and adj EBITDA $52-60Mm.

 

Healthcare

·     Amylyx (AMLX) 4Q EPS ($0.65) vs est. ($0.82) on revs $21.9Mm vs est. $4.7Mm, cash, equivalents and short-term investments were $346.9Mm at December 31.

·     Avid Biosciences (CDMO) 3Q EPS $0.01 vs est. ($0.04) on revs $38Mm vs est. $36.3Mm, gr mgn 26%; reaffirms FY revs guide $145-150Mm vs est. $146.6Mm.

·     DocGo (DCGO) 4Q adj EBITDA $6.8Mm vs est. $8.9Mm on revs $108.8Mm vs est. $103.8Mm; guides FY23 revs about $500-510Mm vs est. $493.2Mm, gr mgn approx 35% and adj EBITDA $45-50Mm vs est. $55Mm.

·     Sight Sciences (SGHT) 4Q EPS ($0.35) vs est. ($0.42) on revs $20.5Mm vs est. $20.3Mm, gr mgn 82%; guides FY23 revs $89-94Mm vs est. $91.2Mm.

·     T2 Biosystems (TTOO) Q4 EPS loss (-$1.41) vs. est. (-$1.70); Q4 revs fell -21% y/y to $5.48M vs. est. $5.4M; given focus on product revenue, company is not providing guidance on research and contribution revenue.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Momentive (MNTV) announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by a consortium led by Symphony Technology Group in an all-cash transaction that values Momentive at approximately $1.5B; with Momentive shareholders to receive $9.46 per share. https://on.mktw.net/3LmWK0a

·     Gitlab (GTLB) shares tumble -30%; as Q4 revs $122.9M vs. est. $119.7M; sees Q1 revs $117M-$118M vs. est. $126.7M; and year revs $529M-$533M vs. est. $587M.

·     Turtle Beach Corp. (HEAR) 4Q adj EPS $0.10 vs est. $0.21 on revs $100.9Mm vs est. $110.4Mm, gr mgn 19.8%, adj EBITDA $6.0Mm vs est. $9.8Mm; guides FY net revs approx +10% vs est. +11.7% and adj EBITDA approx $5Mm vs est. $15.6Mm (including roughly $10Mm remaining negative impact of abnormally high competitive discounting and freight costs).

·     ZoomInfo (ZI) announces $100 million share repurchase program.