Early Look

Friday, March 18, 2022

U.S. equity futures slip overnight, a modest pullback after three days of U.S. stocks closing at their best levels as the S&P 500 and Dow both popped 1.23% on Thursday, the Nasdaq gained 1.33% and the S&P 500 has now posted its best 3-day gain since November 2020. Mixed signals from peace talks between Russia and Ukraine overnight weighing on sentiment early, while oil looks to add to its gains yesterday as Russia cast doubt on how much progress cease-fire negotiations are making. With the war in Ukraine entering its fourth week, Russia is keeping up its siege campaign, even as American and British intelligence officials say its overall offensive has slowed amid heavy losses, logistical problems, and an intense Ukrainian resistance. Later today, Joe Biden will discuss the war with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid concerns that Xi may be moving closer to supporting Moscow. Stocks jumped for a third straight day on Thursday, building on a strong rally this week, with major averages coming into Friday with their biggest weekly advances of 2022 as the S&P 500 is up 4.9% WTD, the Nasdaq +6%, the Dow up 4.6% and sub-sectors even higher as the Semi index up 7% and the Dow Transports up a whopping 8.8% Mon-Thu. Fed-ex shares may take a bite out of transport gains, down over 3% after quarterly earnings miss overnight. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 174 points to 26,287, the Shanghai Index gained 1.12% to 3,251, and the Hang Seng Index fell -0.4% to 21,412. In Europe, the German DAX is down -120 points or 0.85% to 14,265, while the FTSE 100 falls -0.3% to 7,360. Another volatile session expected today with the quarterly event known as triple witching taking place, roughly $3.5 trillion of single-stock and index-level options are set to expire, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. At the same time, more near-the-money options are maturing than at any time since 2019 as of investors will actively trade around those positions. Triple witching also coincides with a rebalancing of benchmark indexes including the S&P 500, which should lead to higher-than-normal volumes tomorrow.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index jumped 53.81 points, or 1.23%, to 4,411.67

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 417.66 points, or 1.23%, to 34,480.76

·     The Nasdaq Composite surged 178.23 points, or 1.33%, to 13,614.78

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 34.30 points, or 1.69% to 2,065.02

Economic Calendar for Today

·     10:00 AM ET       Leading Index m/m for February

·     10:00 AM ET       Existing Home Sales for February

·     1:00 PM EST       Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

World News

·     The Bank of Japan left short term rate unchanged at -0.1%; maintained 10Y JGB yield target at around 0%; downgraded overall assessment of economy; will take further steps easing steps without hesitation as needed while watching pandemic; reaffirmed their guidance they expect short- & long-term policy interest rates to remain at present or lower levels

·     Japan’s February CPI inflation came in at 0.9% (YoY), the highest in two years, but slightly mixed on the core measures of 0.6% (ex-fresh food) and -1.0% (ex-fresh food and energy). The core (ex-fresh food and energy) measure has remained in deflationary territory for almost a year now

·     OPEC+ compliance with oil production cuts rises to 136% in Feb, from 129% in Jan – two OPEC+ sources – Reuters

·     Russian central bank leaves key rate at 20.00%; in-line with expectations; says Russian economy entering a restructuring phase

·     Benchmark three-month nickel contract fell 12% on Friday morning to hit a new trading limit, as heavy selling continued international metal markets amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The price hit $36,915 a metric ton as it opened for trade, according to Refinitiv data. The 145-year-old exchange, which still has some open outcry trading, has had a wild two weeks with price surges, technical glitches, and trading suspensions – The Street

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     GameStop (GME) Q4 EPS loss (-$1.94) vs. est. $0.84; Q4 sales $2.254B vs. est. $2.22B; announces intended launch of NFT marketplace by close of q2 fy22; Hardware and Accessories net sales $1.19B, +2.2% y/y and software net sales $785.9M, +7.5% y/y

·     Joann Inc. (JOAN) 4Q adj EPS $1.16 vs est. $1.04 on revs $735.3Mm vs est. $749.9Mm, comps -12.4% vs est. -11.4%, adj EBITDA $88.9Mm vs est. $91.6Mm

·     Torrid Holdings (CURV) 4Q adj EPS $0.09 vs est. $0.08 on revs $313.9Mm vs est. $306Mm; guides 1Q sales $295-305Mm vs est. $311.7Mm; sees FY revs $1.3-1.365B vs est. $1.357B

·     Allegiant Travel (ALGT) reports total system passengers +8.4% to 1,105,652 vs. February 2019 and +62.4% Y/Y; scheduled service revenue passenger miles +11.9% to 1066.5M vs. February 2019 and +66.7% Y/Y.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Fed-Ex (FDX) shares fall -3%; 3Q adj EPS $4.59 vs est. $4.64 on revs $23.6B vs est. $23.4B, says op Inc improved due to higher revs per shipment and a net fuel benefit at all transportation segments, strong operating results partially offset by Omicron surge; guides FY adj EPS $20.50-21.50 vs est. $20.62; sees FY CAPEX $7.0B, down from prior $7.2B

·     United States Steel (X) sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $1.3B, a new all-time-record for the first quarter (but below ests of $1.54B) and EPS in range $2.96-$3.00, below estimate $3.77

·     SolarEdge (SEDG) 2M share Secondary priced at $295.00

Financials

·     Bank of New York (BK) said government sanctions against Russia along with Thursdays to cease new banking business there are expected to result in a $100 million one-time hit to revenue in the first quarter. It should also lower annual revenue by $80 million to $100 million

·     Arbor Realty (ABR) 6.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $16.75

·     StoneCo (STNE) reported strong Q4 results as revenue grew 87% y/y, or 60% ex-Linx, to R$1.87B; MSMB total payment volume (TPV) was R$66.7B, up 87% y/y, driven by strong net addition of clients; MSMB active payment clients reached 1.7M, with record net addition of 367.3K clients

Healthcare

·     Cymabay Therapeutics, Inc. (CBAY) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.34) vs. est. loss (-$0.26); Held $194.6 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments as of December 31, 2021

·     Lexicon (LXRX) enters loan facility with Oxford finance for up to $150 million to support planned commercialization of sotagliflozin

·     Illumina (ILMN) is suing rival liquid biopsy player Guardant Health (GH), claiming that the latter’s patents are based on work stolen from the genomics giant. Illumina claims that Guardant’s cofounders, who are former Illumina employees, carried away tens of thousands of documents while forming the new company – STAT News

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT) 4Q EPS ($0.04) vs est. $0.00 on revs $53.8Mm vs est. $57.5Mm; sees 1Q revs $48-49Mm vs est. $50.5Mm; guides FY revs $236-242Mm vs est. $254.7Mm

·     Boxlight Corporation (BOXL) 4Q EPS ($0.11) vs est. ($0.08) on revs $44Mm; sees 1Q revs $44Mm vs est. $44.9Mm and FY revs $250Mm vs est. $243.3Mm

·     Xometry (XMTR) 4Q EPS ($0.53) vs est. ($0.30) on revs $67.1Mm vs est. $63.3Mm; sees FY revs $390-400Mm vs est. $396.6Mm