Early Look

Friday, March 21, 2025

U.S. futures are looking lower to kick off the day, trying to avoid a five-week losing streak for US stocks ahead of an expected high-volume day given quadruple witching options expiration and some index rebalances. Disappointing earnings results and lowered guidance from package delivery giant Fed-Ex (FDX) last night has shares down over -8% and footwear apparel giant Nike (NKE) and Dow component are down -6% this morning, erasing initial gains following earnings after revenue guidance for Q4 disappointed, both exhibiting slowing spending concerns from the consumer. As for Thursday, after a fast start, gains for major indexes turned into mild losses as an early upbeat mood and the effects of positive economic data dissipated by closing time. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway hit an all-time high. And Nvidia clung to early gains on the stock market today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged slightly lower at the finish Thursday, in sharp contrast with its strong midday performance. S&P 500 issues weakened in the afternoon and fell 0.2%, also erasing the morning’s gains. The Nasdaq also continued to reel under selling pressure and posted a 0.3% loss. Advancers lagged decliners on both exchanges in a reversal from the morning’s action. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell two basis points to 4.23%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -74 points to 37,677, the Shanghai Index dropped -44 points to 3,364, and the Hang Seng Index tumbled -530 points or 2.19% to 23,689. In Europe, the German DAX is down -164 points to 22,834, while the FTSE 100 is down -36 points to 8,665. The euro is at $1.0835, down marginally on the day and the week, but sharply above February closing at $1.0375 and down from a 5-month high of $1.0955. One more week to go in March as attention next week turns back to inflation (PCE data) and preparation for the Trump administration’s April 2 reciprocal tariffs, which remain unclear at this point to the severity for some countries.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -11.31 points, or 0.03%, to 41,953.32
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -59.16 points, or 0.33%, to 17,691.63
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -13.45 points, or 0.65% to 2,068.33

• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• RBC Capital Opthalmology Conference, 3/20-3/21 in London

• U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order intended to essentially dismantle the federal Department of Education. The order is designed to leave school policy almost entirely in the hands of states and local boards.

• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Lennar Corp. (LEN) Q1 adj EPS $2.14 vs. est. $1.73; Q1 revs rose 4.4% y/y to $7.63B vs. est. $7.49B; guides Q2 new orders 22,500 to 23,500, and deliveries 19,500 to 20,500.
• Nike Inc. (NKE) Q3 EPS $054 vs. est. $0.28; Q3 revs $11.3B vs. est. $11.03B; Q3 inventories $7.5B, down -2% compared to the prior year, reflecting product mix shifts, partially offset by an increase in units; Q2 cash and equivalents and short-term investments were $10.4B, down slightly y/y; Q3 Nike Brand rev $10.9B, down -9%; North America revs -4.1% y/y to $4.86B, Greater China -17% y/y to $1.73B; guided Q4 revenue to decline in mid-teens range vs. consensus of $11.1B, or implied decline of about 12% from Q4 of 2024.
• NIO (NIO) Q4 revenue of 19.7 billion Chinese yuan ($2.70 billion) compared to $2.79B estimate, as the number of EVs it delivered climbed 45% from a year ago to 72,689; said it expects to deliver between 41,000-43,000 vehicles over the current quarter and revs between $1.69B-$1.76B vs. est. $2.48B.
• Torrid Holdings (CURV) Q4 sales fell -6.1% y/y to $275.6M, vs. est. $264.2M; Q4 adj EBITDA rose 1.8% y/y to $16.7M; sees Q1 sales $264M-$274M vs. est. $279M and adj EBITDA $24M-$28M vs. est. $39.7M; outlook does not take into consideration the volatility of tariff changes or its impact on inflation or consumer demand.
• Target Corp (TGT) files for offering $1B 5.000% notes due 2035.

• Nucor Corp. (NUE) sees Q1 adj EPS $0.50-$0.60 vs. est. $1.09; expect earnings in the steel mills segment in the first quarter of 2025 to be in line with Q4’24; expect earnings in the steel products segment to decrease in the first quarter of 2025 as compared to Q4 of 2024 due primarily to lower average selling prices.
• Planet Labs (PL) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.08) vs. est. loss (-$0.02); Q4 revs $61.6M vs. est. $61.9M; guides Q1 revs $61M-$63M vs. est. $64.6M; Q1 gross margin is expected to be in the range of approximately 58% to 60%. Adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be in the range of approximately ($3) to ($2) million for the quarter.
• U.S. Steel (X) forecasts Q1 adj. EBITDA $125M, middle of prior forecast $100M to $150M, and vs. est. $120M; forecasts Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.49-$0.53) vs. est. loss (-$0.32); says Europe pricing environment has slightly improved, remains subdued; continue to assess benefit from these tariff policies.
• Activist investor Elliott meets other BP Plc (BP) shareholders to try to build consensus for more changes, Reuters reported citing sources; Elliott, some investors want deeper change at BP such as cost cuts, potential board change among options.

• Editas Medicine (EDIT) CFO Erick J. Lucera to step down.
• Foghorn Therapeutics (FHTX) files prospectus for issuance & sale of shares of up to $100M from time to time.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) said it plans to invest more than $55 billion over the next four years to build manufacturing facilities and research infrastructure in the United States.
• Maravai LifeSciences Holdings (MRVI) forecasts Q1 revs $43M-$45M vs. est. $63M and forecasts FY total revs $185M-$205M vs. est. $264.1M.
• Vor Biopharma Inc (VOR) files for a mixed shelf offering of up to $350M.

• Luminar (LAZR) forecasts Q1 rev lower q/q; forecasts FY 2025 rev growth 10% to 20%; forecasts ending FY 2025 with over $150M in cash, liquidity.
• Quantum Computing (QUBT) reports Q4 EPS loss (-$0.47) vs. est. loss (-$0.09); reports Q4 revenue $62,000 vs. $75,000; says on track to launch our quantum photonic chip foundry in early 2025, with multiple purchase orders secured, reinforcing the growing demand for TFLN.
• Super Micro (SMCI) upgraded to Neutral from underweight at JPMorgan and raised tgt to $45 from $35 on cycling past filing challenges.