Early Look

Thursday, May 1, 2025

After surging late yesterday to close out the day in positive territory, U.S. futures are on the rise again, with S&P futures +1.2% at 5,653, just off the overnight highs and Nasdaq futures jumping even more, +1.7% of 340 points as major averages are about to cross key technical moving averages resistances. Stock prices got a boost overnight following stronger results and guidance from MSFT and META in the technology space (rising +8.65% and +6.25% respectively overnight). Microsoft beat Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines thanks to strength in its cloud and AI businesses, while META’s forecast eased fears tariffs would impact ad spending. In trade news, the US and Ukraine signed an “economic partnership” deal on Wednesday that will give Washington access to the country’s critical minerals. Also, it was reported Thursday that the Trump administration has quietly reached out to Beijing to kick off tariff talks. Markets also brace for another round of economic data and earnings today.

U.S. stocks staged a late day rally in the final 30 minutes of trading on Wednesday, pushing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials into positive territory and extending the S&P win streak to 7-days while ending one of their wildest-ever months on record. US stocks finished at the highs, overcoming early-session declines that followed a weak report on economic growth (GDP), as Nasdaq rallied more than 500 points off its lows and the S&P more than 100 points. Still, despite the late day push, the S&P 500 Index ended April at 5,569.06, down for a third consecutive month (-0.8%) after rising in January. The rally could have been a confluence of factors, including end of month “window-dressing”, or easing concerns after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE m/m) offered some encouraging signs, raising hopes for Fed rate cuts by the summer. Oil futures fell for a third day, hit by an unexpected drop in U.S. economic activity. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note settled at 4.173%, flat on the day but down from 4.245% a month earlier. For the month the S&P 500 fell 0.76%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.85%, and the Dow fell 3.17%.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 406 points to 36,452, the Shanghai Index fell -7 points too 3,279, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 11 points to 22,119. In Europe, the German DAX is up 71 points to 22,496, while the FTSE 100 is flat at 8,493. June gold prices sink further, down -2.8% or $93 to $3,226.40 an ounce, now nearly $300 off 2 weeks ago record highs. Oil prices also bleeding lower, down -2.83% or $1.65 to $56.54 per barrel after the biggest monthly drop since 2021, on signs the Saudi-led OPEC+ alliance may be entering a prolonged period of higher output and Brent -2.85% breaking below $60 per barrel.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 141.74 points, or 0.35%, to 40,669.36
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -14.98 points, or 0.09%, to 17,446.34
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -12.40 points, or 0.63% to 1,964.12

• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 224K (prior 222K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.864M
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, April final…prior 50.7
• 10:00 AM ET                Construction Spending M/M for March…est. +0.2% (prior +0.7%)
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing for April…est. 48.0 (prior 49.0)
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Prices Paid for April…est. 70.3 (prior 69.4)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAPL ABNB ADPT AEE AIG AJG ALSN AMGN AMZN APLE ASUR ATEN ATR AXTI BIO NJRI BMRN BOOM BZH CABO CART CERS CNI COHU COLM COOK CPS CPT CUBE CUZ CWST DLB DUOL DXCM ED EOG ES EXAS FIVN FND GDDY HOLX HR HUN IR IRTC JNPR LBTYA OLCO LUMN LYV MHK MPWR MSI MSTR MTD MTZ OHI OLED OLN PCOR PCTY PEB PLYM PRO RDDT RGA RHP RIOT RMAX ROKU RRR RYAN SEM SMMT SPXC SVV SYK TEAM TREE TRUP TVTX TWLO ULCC VIAV WK X XYZ ZETA ZEUS

• The International Monetary Fund downgraded its growth forecasts for oil exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, citing escalating global trade tensions and lower energy prices.

• eBay Inc. (EBAY) said that its Chief Financial Officer Steve Priest will step down in May and will be replaced by Peggy Alford, who was a vice president at PayPal (PYPL); Q1 adj EPS $1.38 vs. est. $1.34 and revs $2.6B vs. est. $2.55B; Q1 GMV $18.8B, up 1% on an as-reported basis and up 2% on an FX; Q2 revenue $2.59B-$2.66B above  consensus $2.59B and EPS $1.24-$1.31 vs. est. $1.28.
• Estee Lauder (EL) posts a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly sales as Q3 sales fall -10% y/y to $3.55B which topped the estimate $3.52B; Q3 EPS $0.65 beat the $0.32 consensus; guides net sales for fiscal 2025 to be down 8% to 9% vs estimates of a 7.07% fall; Expects restructuring program will result in restructuring and other charges between $1.2B and $1.6B, before taxes.
• Herbalife (HLF) Q1 EPS $0.49 on sales $1.22B; sees Q2 revenue (3.5%) to 0.5% y/y and sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA $160M-$170M; sees FY25 revenue (2.5%) to +2.5% y/y.
• MGM Resorts (MGM) Q1 adj EPS $0.69 vs est. $0.46, adj EBITDAR $637Mm vs est. $1.106B on revs $4.3B vs est. $4.303B; says board authorized new $2B share repurchase program.
• Pool Corp (POOL) announced that its Board of Directors has authorized an increase in the company’s share repurchase program to $600M.
• Sprouts Farmrs (SFM) Q1 EPS $1.81 vs est. $1.55 on revs $2.236B vs est. $2.201B, comps +11.7%; guides Q2 comps +6.5-8.5% and EPS $1.19-1.23 vs est. $1.15; sees FY comps +5.5-7.5%, sales +12-14% vs est. +12.38% and EPS $4.94-5.10 vs est. $4.69.
• VICI Properties (VICI) Q1 AFFO/shr $0.58 vs est. $0.60 on revs $984.2Mm vs est. $976.28Mm; raised FY AFFO/shr guide to $2.33-2.36 vs est. $2.40.
• Wyndham Hotels (WH) Q1 adj EPS $0.86 vs. est. $0.81; Q1 revs $316M vs. est. $317.58M; Q1 global RevPAR up 2% in constant currency; lowers FY25 adjusted EPS view to $4.57-$4.74 from $4.66-$4.78 (est. $4.77) and sees FY y/y rooms growth 3.6%-4.6%, with global RevPAR growth now seen down 2% to up 1% vs. prior view of up 2%-3%.

• Antero Resources (AR) Q1 adj EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.88; Q1 revs $1.35B vs. est. $1.4B; Q1 net production averaged 3.4 Bcfe/d, Natural gas production averaged 2.2 Bcf/d and liquids production averaged 206 MBbl/d; realized a pre-hedge natural gas equivalent price of $4.55 per Mcfe, which is a $0.90 per Mcfe premium to NYMEX
• Enovix Corp. (ENVX) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.12) vs. est. loss (-$0.17); Q1 revs $5.1M vs. est. $4.64M; sees Q2 EPS loss (21c)-(15c), vs. consensus loss (-$0.16) and sees Q2 revenue $4.5M-$6.5M vs. est. $5.09M; said also secured bookings on defense orders which support growth into the second half of 2025.

• Allstate (ALL) Q1 adj EPS $3.53 vs. $5.13 y/y; Q1 revs rose 7.8% y/y to $16.5B vs. est. $13.84B and net investment income $854M, +12% y/y; Q1 Property-Liability insurance premiums earned $14.0B, +8.5% y/y and Q1 Property and Casualty Insurance and Claims expense $10.82B, +14% y/y; Q1 auto premiums +6.5% to $9.35B.
• MetLife (MET) announces a new $3B share repurchase authorization; Q1 adjusted EPS $1.96 vs. consensus $2.00 and Q4 revs $18.57B vs. consensus $18.08B; in agreement with subsidiary of Talcott Financial to reinsure about $10B of U.S. retail variable annuity and rider reserves.
• Prudential (PRU) Q1 adj operating EPS $3.29 vs. est. $3.16; Q1 GAAP book value per share excluding AOCI $96.85, adj book value per share $96.37 and assets under management (AUM) $1.52 trillion
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) Q1 EPS of $0.37 vs. est. $0.33; Q1 revs $927M vs. est. $922.5M; board increases share repurchase authorization by $500M to $1.5B; reported a rise in first-quarter profit helped by robust crypto trading volumes from clients; total platform assets include $180 billion under custody at Q1 end.
• AvalonBay (AVB) Q1 AFFO/shr $2.83 vs est. $2.81; sees Q2 AFFO/shr $2.72-2.82 vs est. $2.85 and reaffirms prior FY guidance.
• Public Storage (PSA) Q1 core FFO/SHR $4.12 vs est. $4.06 on revs $1.18B vs est. $1.17B; guides FY same-store revs -1.3% to +0.8%, expense +2.5% to +4.0% and net op Inc -2.9% to +0.2%; sees FY core FFO/SHR $16.35-17.00 vs est. $16.78.

• CVS Corp (CVS) Q1 adj EPS $2.25 tops the $1.70 estimate; Q1 medical benefit ratio decreased to 87.3% vs estimate 88.9%; Q1 revs $94.59B vs. est. $93.64B; raises adjusted full-year profit forecast to $6 to $6.20 per share from $5.75 to $6 previously; said its PBM unit also plans to drop LLY’s weight-loss drug Zepbound as a preferred product from its list of drugs eligible for reimbursement, and would retain NVO’s Wegovy.
• Guardant Health (GH) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.49) vs. est. loss (-$0.59); Q1 revs $203.5M vs. est. $190M; raises FY25 revenue view to $880M-$890M from $850M-$860M (est. $857.3M); sees oncology revenue is now expected to grow approximately 18% y/y in 2025, compared to prior guidance of approximately 15% y/y growth. Oncology volume is now expected to accelerate to greater than 25% growth in 2025 compared to 20% growth in 2024.
• Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss (-$4.7M) vs. (-$14.4M) and reports Q1 revenue $234.4M, vs. consensus $220.2M; sees FY25 revenue $997M-$1.007B, vs. consensus $999M; Increased pump sales in the United States by 19% in Q1 on a GAAP basis and 17% on a non-GAAP basis, on strong shipment growth and average selling price improvement and delivered 5 point adjusted EBITDA margin increase.
• Teladoc (TDOC) Q1 revenue $629.4M vs. consensus $619.23M; announced that it completed the acquisition of UpLift Health Technologies, in an all-cash transaction of $30.0M; sees 2025 EPS loss ($1.40)-(90c) vs. consensus loss (-$1.03) and sees 2025 revenue $2.468B-$2.576B vs. est. $2.52B.
• Ventas Inc. (VTR) Q1 normalized FFO/SHR $0.84 vs est. $0.82; reaffirms FY, guides FY FFO/SHR $3.35-3.46 vs est. $3.44.

• Albemarle (ALB) Q1 adj EPS ($0.18) vs est. ($0.59), adj EBITDA $267.1Mm vs est. $206.4Mm on sales $1.077B vs est. $1.158B; says maintaining FY outlook considerations.
• CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) Q1 EPS $1.17 vs. est. $1.05; Q1 revs $4.0B vs. est. $4.25B; Q1 Gross profits increased 1.5% to $657.4M, Q1 income from operations increased 39.1% to $176.9M and Q1 adj operating margin increased 700 basis points to 26.3%.
• Smurfit Westrock (SW) announced it will permanently close its coated recycled board mill in St. Paul, Minnesota, U.S. and will discontinue production at its containerboard mill in Forney, Texas, U.S.

• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) shares rise; Q3 EPS $3.46 vs est. $3.22 on revs $70.1B vs est. $68.421B, cloud revs rose 20% y/y to $42.4B; Q3 intelligent cloud rev. $26.8B, vs. est. $25.99B; Q1 Operating income was $32B and increased 16%.
• KLA Tencor (KLAC) approved an additional $5B repurchase program; Q3 EPS $8.41 vs. est. $8.08 and Q3 revenue $3.06B vs. consensus $3.01B; sees Q4 EPS $7.75-$9.31 vs. est. $7.98 and sees Q4 revenue $2.925B-$3.225B, vs. consensus $3.01B.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Q2 adj EPS $2.85 vs est. $2.85 on revs $10.98B vs est. $10.66B; guides Q3 revs $9.9-10.7B vs est. $10.346B and adj EPS $2.60-2.80 vs est. $2.67.
• ANYSY Inc. (ANSS) Q1 adj EPS $1.64 vs est. $1.68 on revs $504.9Mm vs est. $520.9Mm, adj op mgn 11.7%.
• Cognizant Technology (CTSH) Q1 adj EPS $1.23 vs. est. $1.20; Q1 revs $5.1B vs. est. $5.06B; guides Q2 revenue $5.14B-$5.21B, vs. consensus $5.11B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $4.98-$5.14 from $4.90-$5.06 (est. $4.99) and raises FY25 revenue view to $20.5B-$21B from $20.3B-$20.8B.
• Crown Castle (CCI) Q1 AFFO/shr $1.10 vs est. $0.97, adj EBITDA $722Mm vs est. $685.9Mm on revs $1.06B vs est. $1.04B; sees FY site rental revs $B, adj EBITDA $2.78B vs est. $2.78B and AFFO/shr $4.12 vs est. $3.97.
• Equinix (EQIX) Q1 AFFO/shr $9.67 vs est. $9.09 on sales $2.23B vs est. $2.224B; guides FY revs $9.175-9.275B vs est. $9.123B, adj EBITDA $4.471-4.551B vs est. $4.422B and AFFO/shr $37.36-38.17 vs est. $37.28.
• PTC Corp. (PTC) Q2 adj EPS $1.79 vs est. $1.40 on revs $636Mm vs est. $607.08Mm; guides FY revs $2.445-2.565B vs est. $2.485B and adj EPS $2.80-6.55 vs est. $5.68.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) announces executive leadership change saying Neill Reynolds to depart as EVP and CFO effective May 30; reaffirms fiscal Q3 2025 guidance.