Morning Preview: May 03, 2024

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Early Look

Friday, May 3, 2024









S&P 500










U.S. futures are adding to yesterday’s strong gains, getting a boost from Dow component and tech giant Apple (AAPL) which reported better quarterly results. Apple (AAPL) shares rise over 7% overnight, giving technology a major boost following in-line to slightly better earnings/segment results, buoyed by a massive $110B stock buyback plan and dividend boost (offsets news that revenues fell -4.3% y/y, the 5th quarter in last 6 with decelerating y/y revs). Markets chalking the rally in AAPL on a “better-than-feared” quarter and the buyback news certainly helping. Next up in this catalyst rich week is the monthly jobs report at 8:30 AM, with ests calling are for April Nonfarm Payrolls to add 243K jobs (prior 303K), Private Payrolls est. 190K (prior 232K) and manufacturing Payrolls for April est. 5K (prior 0K), unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 3.8% and wages to rise +0.3% M/M. Will a good number give markets a further liftoff and finish stocks higher for the week? or are we still as “bad news” is “good news” for stocks on hopes it means a more accommodative Fed and hopes for sooner rate cuts. Rate cuts have been pushed out to the end of 2024 right now given the barrage of “hotter” inflation data in recent weeks (CPI, PCE, ECI). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index and Shanghai Index were closed while the Hang Seng Index advanced 268 points to 18,475. In Europe, the German DAX is up 106 points to 18,002, while the FTSE 100 rises 41 points to 8,213. Bitcoin bounces back above $59K, while the Japanese yen surged to a three-week high, with Asian currencies poised for their best week in almost two months as regional policymakers increased their intervention efforts and rhetoric. Rundown of busy earnings night seen below, with biggest movers higher AAPL, AMGN, SQ, MELI, MTZ and losers EXPE, FTNT, NET and TRUP.


Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index jumped 45.81 points, or 0.91%, to 5,064.20.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 322.37 points, or 0.85%, to 38,225.66.
  • The Nasdaq Composite gained 235.48 points, or 1.51%, to 15,840.96.
  • The Russell 2000 Index advanced 35.88 points, or 1.81% to 2,016.11.

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 8:30 AM ET                  Nonfarm Payrolls for April…est. 243K (prior 303K)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for April…est. 190K (prior 232K)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for April…est. 5K (prior 0K)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for April…est. 3.8%
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings for April M/M…est. +0.3%
  • 9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Composite, April
  • 10:00 AM ET                ISM Non-Manufacturing for April…est. 52.0
  • 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Earnings Calendar:






















10-Year Note




Sector News Breakdown


  • Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q1 EPS $20.39 vs. est. $14.06; Q1 revs $4.42B vs. est. $4.25B; Q1 Gross travel bookings $43.5B, +10% y/y vs. est. $42.2B; Q1 Room nights booked increased 9% from the prior year’s quarter; forecasts Q2 room nights growth decelerate vs Q1 due to war; sees Q2 revenue growth up 4%-6% and sees Q2 room nights growth of 4%-6%.
  • DraftKings (DKNG) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.30) vs. est. loss (-$0.28); Q1 revs $1.17B vs. est. $1.12B; said Q1 monthly unique payers increased to 3.4M and average Revenue per MUP was $114; Q1 adj Ebitda $500M vs. est. $458M; raises FY24 revenue view to $4.8B-$5B from $4.65B-$4.9B and boosts FY adj EBITDA view to $460M-$540M from $410M-$510M.
  • Expedia (EXPE) Q1 adj EPS $0.21 vs. est. loss (-$0.24); Q1 revs $2.9B vs. est. $2.81B; said Q1 gross bookings rose 3% y/y to $30.2B; saw continued momentum in B2B, brand Expedia and advertising; said given ‘VRBO drag’ and rate of acceleration in B2C thus far, company lowering full year guidance to a range of mid to high single digit top line growth.
  • Floor & D�cor (FND) Q1 EPS $0.46 vs. est. $0.44; Q1 revs $1.10B vs. est. $1.12B; Q1 comparable sales fell -11.6% vs. -3.3% y/y; backs FY net sales $4.60B-$4.77B and guides FY comp sales down -2% to -5.5%, vs. -4.1%.
  • MercadoLibre (MELI) Q1 EPS $6.78 vs. est. $6.03; Q1 revs rose 36% y/y to $4.33B vs. est. $3.85B; Sales from its main marketplace business rose 36% in Brazil, its top market, and 42% in Mexico, as measured by Gross Merchandise Value (GMV); Operational margins came in at 12.4%, up from the 11.2% a year earlier.
  • Monster Beverage (MNST) Q1 EPS $0.42 vs. est. $0.43; Q1 revs $1.9B was in-line with consensus; said intends to commence tender offer to repurchase $3B of stock; Gross profit as a percentage of net sales for the 2024 first quarter was 54.1 percent, compared with 52.8% y/y.
  • Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Q1 EPS $1.69 vs. est. $1.63; Q1 Ebit $133.128M vs. est. $128.6M; Q1 revs $1,321B vs. est. $1.323B; says mgmt reiterated expectations for 2024 guidance.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

  • EOG Resources (EOG) Q1 EPS $2.82 vs. est. $2.70; Q1 revs $6.123B vs. est. $5.92B; Quarterly crude oil and condensate production was up 6.5% at 487,400 barrels of oil per day (boepd) from the previous year.
  • Hunstman (HUN) Q1 adj EPS loss of (-$0.06), in-line with consensus and revs $1.47B vs. est. $1.47B; Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $81 million compared to $136 million in the prior year period; Q1 Free cash flow from continuing operations was a use of cash of $105 million for the first quarter 2024 compared to a use of cash of $168 million in the prior year period.
  • Ingersoll Rand (IR) Q1 adj EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.69; Q1 revs $1.67B vs. est. $1.7B; backs FY24 adjusted EPS view $3.20-$3.30 (est. $3.21) and backs FY24 revenue growth view 2%-4%; raises FY24 Ebitda guidance range.
  • MasTec (MTZ) Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.13) vs. est. loss (-$0.48); Q1 revs $2.7B vs. est. $2.62B; sees Q2 EPS $0.88 vs. est. $0.89 and revs $3.1B vs. est. $3.16B; raises 2024 adj EPS view to $2.95 and revs $12.55B; said 18-month Backlog as of March 31, 2024 of $12.8B increased $430M sequentially from Q4.
  • U.S. Steel (X) Q1 adjusted EPS $0.82 (in-line) on revs $4.16B vs. est. $4.21B; said Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $414 million reflects the benefits of a diverse order book and efficiently run operations during changing market conditions; said both North American Flat-Rolled and Mini Mill segments generated sizeable sequential increases in EBITDA.
  • Watch heavy duty truck makers (CMI, PCAR) after April Class 8 Truck orders came in at 15.6k, up 30% y/y on easy comps with a SAAR around 200k. Jefferies noted after a strong start to the year, then a March result below 20k, this month’s result reflects historical seasonality and will reduce backlogs modestly. We continue to see 2024 as a year of modest production declines before re-acceleration in 2025/26. Medium-duty orders were not provided in the preliminary release.
  • Union Pacific (UNP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel and raised tgt to $267 from $248.


  • Block Inc. (SQ) Q1 adj EPS $0.85 vs. est. $0.72; Q1 revs $5.96B vs. est. $5.82B; guides FY24 adjusted EBITDA $2.76B above prior view at least $2.63B and Q2 adjusted EBITDA $670M-$690M; Q1 cash app qtrly inflows per transacting active were $1,255, up 11% y/y and cash app generated $1.33B of subscription and services-based revenue during Q1, up 23% y/y.
  • Coinbase (COIN) Q1 revs $1.59B vs. est. $1.32B; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $1.014B vs $287M last year; sees Q2 subscription and services revenue $525M-$600M and sees Q2 transaction expenses mid-teens as a percentage of net revenue; said after Q1 consumer trading volumes jumped 93% q/q, will have to spend more to maintain its trading infrastructure.
  • Digital Realty (DLR) Q1 core FFO $1.67 vs. est. $1.63; Q1 revs $1.3B vs. est. $1.36B; said saw accelerating demand in the first quarter, executing on several multifaceted AI-oriented opportunities; still sees 2024 core FFO $6.60-$6.75 (est. $6.68) and still sees 2024 revenue $5.55B-$5.65B, vs. consensus $5.61B.
  • Rocket Companies (RKT) Q1 adj EPS $0.04 vs. est. $0.01; Q1 revs $1.16B vs. est. $1.02B; sees Q2 revenue $1.08B-$1.23B vs. consensus $1.25B; Delivered Q1’24 adjusted EBITDA of $174M, the highest adjusted EBITDA in two years.
  • Opendoor technologies (OPEN) files mixed securities shelf after results and guidance.


  • Amgen (AMGN) shares jump after saying it is working on two weight-loss drugs: MariTide which is in mid-stage testing for weight loss in adults with or without obesity and wrapped a Phase 1 study of its other obesity drug, a small molecule medicine known as AMG 786; Q1 adj EPS $3.96 vs. est. $3.94; Q1 revs $7.4B vs. est. $7.44B; narrows FY24 adj EPS view to $19.00-$20.20 from $18.90-$20.30 (est. $19.48) and narrows FY24 revenue view to $32.5B-$33.8B from $32.4B-$33.8B (est. $32.95B), while sees FY capex to be approximately $1.1 billion (shares of NVO, LLY, VKTX and other obesity drug makers slip on news).
  • DaVita (DVA) Q1 adj EPS $2.38 vs. est. $1.95; Q1 revs $3.07B vs. est. $3.03B; Q1 Operating income was $484 million and adjusted operating income was $463M; narrows FY24 adj EPS view to $9.00-$9.80 from $8.70-$9.80 (est. $9.01).
  • Hologic (HOLX) Q2 EPS $1.03 vs. est. $0.98; Q2 revs $1.02B vs. est. $1.0B; guides mid-point Q3 below views and arrows FY24 EPS view to $4.02-$4.12 from $3.97-$4.12 (est. $4.03) and narrows FY24 revenue view to $4.00B-$4.05B from $3.99B-$4.07B.
  • Illumina (ILMN) Q1 EPS $0.09 vs. est. $0.04; Q1 revs $1.08B vs. est. $1.05B; said continues to expect Core Illumina revenue to be approximately flat compared to fiscal year 2023 and Core Illumina non-GAAP operating margin to be approximately 20%.
  • Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.65) vs. est. loss (-$0.76); Q1 revs rose 13% y/y to $192.8M vs. est. $174.0M; sees Fy24 revenue $868M vs. consensus $845.5M and non-GAAP gross margin is estimated to be approximately 51% for the full year; Q1 worldwide pump shipments increased 9% to approximately 25,000 pumps from 23,000 pumps.
  • Trupanion (TRUP) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.16) vs. est. loss (-$0.20); Q1 revs rose 19% y/y to $306.1M vs. est. $300.51M; said subscription revenue increased by 22% y/y; discretionary profit from our core subscription business increased 55% while acquisition spend decreased 23% y/y; announces new CEO.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Apple Inc. (AAPL) authorizes additional $110B for share repurchases; Q2 EPS $1.53 vs. est. $1.50 on better revs fell -4.3% y/y to of $90.75B vs est. $90.01B; Apple Q2 greater China net sales $16.37B vs. est. $15.25B; segment revs: Q2 iphone net sales $45.96B, in-line with ests; Q2 iPad net sales $5.56B vs. est. $5.91B; Q2 Mac net sales $7.45B vs. est. $6.86B, Q2 services net sales $23.87B vs estimate $23.27B and Q2 wearables, home and accessories net sales $7.91B vs est. $8.08B.
  • Bill Holdings (BILL) Q3 adj EPS $0.60 vs. est. $0.53; Q1 revs $323M vs. est. $306.02M; mixed guidance as sees FY24 adjusted EPS $1.96-$2.0 vs. consensus $2.23 and sees FY24 revenue $1.267B-$1.277B vs. est. $1.24B.
  • Cloudflare (NET) Q1 EPS $0.16 vs. est. $0.13; Q1 revs rose 30% y/y to $378.6M vs. est. $373.09M; rev growth boosted by a record number of net-new customers year-over-year spending more than $100,000, $500,000, and $1 million with Cloudflare on an annualized basis; forecasts Q2 revs $393.5M to $394.5M, vs. est. $394.5M.
  • Fortinet (FTNT) Q1 EPS $0.43 vs. est. $0.38; Q1 revs rose 7% y/y to $1.35B vs. est. $1.34B; Q1 Service revenue of $944M, up 24% y/y and GAAP operating margin of 23.7%; sees FY24 EPS $1.73-$1.79 vs. consensus $1.71 and sees FY24 revenue $5.745B-$5.845B vs. consensus $5.78B.
  • Go Daddy (GDDY) Q1 EPS $2.76; Q1 revs $1.11B, in-line with consensus $1.1B; raised its revenue expectations to a range of $4.50 billion to $4.56 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 6.5% at the midpoint. GoDaddy expects full-year NEBITDA margin of approximately 29%.
  • Live Nation (LYV) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.53) vs. est. loss (-$0.19); Q1 revs $3.8B vs. est. $3.26B; concerts had record Q1 with momentum accelerating into summer season; Q1 adjusted operating income up 15% to $367M; fan growth up 21% to 23 million fans; food and beverage spending up 10% at U.S. theaters and clubs.
  • Motorola Solutions (MSI) Q1 adj EPS $2.81 vs. est. $2.53; Q1 revs $2.4B vs. est. $2.35B; raises FY24 adjusted EPS view to $12.98-$13.08 from $12.62-$12.72 and boosts FY24 revenue growth view to roughly 7% from roughly 6% vs. consensus; guided Q2 EPS and revs above estimates.


Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.

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