Early Look

Monday, May 5, 2025

S&P futures (Spuz) are looking lower after rising again last week as the long winning streak for markets is in jeopardy. Last week, the S&P 500 gained 2.92%, the Nasdaq rose 3.42%, and the Dow climbed 3% as the S&P and Dow both made it 9-straight daily advances. The last time each saw 9-day win streaks, the Dow back in December of 2023 while the S&P 500 you have to go back to November 2024. If we manage to make it 10-straight for the S&P 500 today, it will match the longest win streak since 1994! Stocks took a step back after President Trump said on Sunday that he has no plans to speak to his Chinese counterpart President Xi this week, even as he said he wants a “fair deal” with China. In other big headlines this weekend, Warren Buffett announced he would be stepping down as head of Berkshire at the end of this year, OPEC+ shocked oil markets with another surprise output surge in June (sending oil prices lower), gold prices resume their rebound, Bitcoin prices slumped, and markets await the Fed meeting mid-week.

Oil prices are lower, with WTI crude -1.25% at $57.55 per barrel after reports that OPEC+ will accelerate oil output hikes and could bring back to the market as much as 2.2M barrels per day by November, five OPEC+ sources said as the group’s leader Saudi Arabia seeks to punish some fellow members for producing above quotas. OPEC+ shocked oil markets in April by agreeing a bigger-than-expected output hike for May despite weak prices and slowing demand, Reuters reported.

Warren Buffett this weekend noted he plans to step down as Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of the year and said Greg Abel, who is the energy executive at BRK/A, will take over. Buffett was asked about whether the recent market volatility has offered opportunities for big investments. “What has happened in the last 30, 45, 100 days,” Buffett says, “is really nothing,” downplaying the recent volatility in markets.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index, Shanghai Index and Hang Seng Index were closed for holiday. In Europe, the German DAX is up 131 points to 23,218, while the FTSE 100 was closed for holiday. Meanwhile an unprecedented two-day surge in Taiwan’s currency is the latest leg of a scramble out of the U.S. dollar. The Taiwan dollar has leapt 8% in two days, with traders complaining of no buyers for U.S. dollars that insurers, exporters and investors suddenly wanted to sell.

Some upcoming events for next week of note: On Monday 5/5 – Hong Kong Holiday, Japanese Holiday, UK Holiday and ISM Services PMI in the US; Tuesday 5/6: Chinese Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone Composite/Services Final PMI; Wednesday 5/7: Central bank action with the FOMC, BCB policy meetings; Thursday 5/8: Bank of England rate decision as well as Riksbank & Norges Bank Policy meetings; Friday 5/9: Chinese Trade Balance.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 564.47 points, or 1.39%, to 41,317.43
• The Nasdaq Composite surged 266.99 points, or 1.51%, to 17,977.73
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 44.88 points, or 2.27% to 2,020.74

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Apr-F…prior 51.4
• 10:00 AM ET                Employment Trends for April
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April…est. 50.2 (prior 50.8)
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ACM ADUS AEIS AL AMRC AORT BCC BFAM BLX BRBR BWXT CBT CE CERT CLX CORT CRBG CRGY CRH CSTL CTRA DENN DHC DMRC DORM ETD EVER F FANG FN GBDC HIMS HSII HSTM IAC ICHR INSP IPAR IPI JELD JRVR KRC LMB LSCC LTC MAT MATX MWA NBIX NGVT NJR NSA NVTS O OGS OPAD OTTR PAY PLOW PLTR PLYA PRIM RAIL RLAY RRX SBRA SIBN SUI TALO TBI TCMD TDUP TRUE UPWK VMEO VNO VNOM VRTX WEAV WMB

• DA Davidson 27th Annual Financial Institutions Conference, 5/5-5/7, in Scottsdale, AZ
• Oppenheimer 20th Annual Industrial Growth Conference, 5/5-5/8
• China Caixin Services PMI for April

• President Trump says he won’t remove Jerome Powell; good parts of economy are his doing and said that a first-quarter contraction in the U.S. economy was the result of former President Joe Biden’s policies. In an interview with “Meet the Press with Kristen Welker” on NBC News that aired on Sunday, Trump said he expected the Fed to lower interest rates at some point. “Well, he should lower them. And at some point, he will. He’d rather not because he’s not a fan of mine.

• Helen of Troy (HELE) announced a change to its leadership. Noel Geoffroy is departing as CEO, effective immediately. In connection with her departure, Geoffroy resigned as a director of the company, also effective immediately. Brian Grass, CFO, has been appointed interim CEO by the Board of Directors.
• Wendy’s (WEN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.

• Huntsman (HUN) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo
• Shell (SHEL) is evaluating with advisers a potential acquisition of rival BP (BP) and has been more seriously studying the feasibility and merits of a takeover in recent weeks, according to a Bloomberg report. Shell’s deliberations are at an early stage and any decision will likely depend on whether BP’s stock continues to decline, but it might also wait for BP to reach out or for another bidder to emerge. https://tinyurl.com/sz2jmkyy

• Loews (L) Q1 EPS $1.74 compared to $2.05 last year and revs $4.49B vs. $4.23B last year; reports Q1 book value per share $89.74.
• Reddit (RDDT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Research.

• Henry Schein (HSIC) Q1 adj EPS $1.15 vs. est. $1.11; reports Q1 revenue $3.17B vs. est. $3.23B; backs FY25 adjusted EPS $4.80-$4.94 vs. est. $4.84 and backs FY25 revenue growth about 2%-4% over 2024; sees FY25 adjusted EBITDA growth mid-single digits.

• A U.S. lawmaker plans to introduce legislation in coming weeks to verify the location of artificial-intelligence chips like those made by Nvidia (NVDA) after they are sold, Reuters reported. The effort to keep tabs on the chips aims to address reports of widespread smuggling of Nvidia’s chips into China.
• In Chinese tech: PDD (PDD), and Shein impacted as on Friday, President Trump eliminated the exemption that had allowed goods made in mainland China and Hong Kong valued at less than $800 to enter the United States without being subject to import taxes. For Temu and Shein, this means they are now subject to tariffs of as much as 145% to bring over Chinese goods. Last week, Temu started adding “import charges” to certain products, which more than doubled the overall price to buy and ship the items – NY Times
• Taiwan’s Foxconn, the world’s largest contract electronics maker and Apple’s (AAPL) biggest iPhone assembler, reported on Monday that its April revenue rose 25.54% on year; said it sees growth in Q2, compared with the year-ago period, adding that “the impact of evolving global political and economic conditions will need continued close monitoring.”