Early Look

Friday, May 6, 2022

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-80.00	0.25%	32,839
S&P 500	-12.75	0.31%	4,131
Nasdaq	-34.50	0.25%	12,825

 

 

U.S. futures are looking slightly lower following the shellshock from the dramatic stock pullback on Thursday and further advance of U.S. Treasury yields (now 3.07%). Stocks turned South Thursday in a violent U-turn from the prior trading session as the Nasdaq sank by 5% in its worst day since June 2020 (following a 3.2% rise on the FOMC policy day) while the Dow shed more than 1,000 points, or 3.1%, to end at 32,997.97 just a day after the blue-chip index posted its best single-session gain since May 2020, rising 2.99%. No sector was safe with defensive utilities, staples and healthcare also succumbing to selling pressure just a day after the Fed’s first half-point rate hike since 2000, as the central bank attacks inflation that is currently running at its hottest rates in 40 years. The central bank also laid out its plans to begin rolling assets off its $9 trillion balance sheet starting June. Stocks jumped on Wednesday as the Fed played down the chance of a 75-bps rate hike at future meetings, but the apparent “all-clear” sign was waved off amid the ongoing rising rate uncertainty, while Treasury yields topped highs above 3.1% on Thursday before paring gains. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 185 points to move back to 27,000, the Shanghai Index fell -2.15% to 3,001, and the Hang Seng Index tumbled -3.8% to 20,001. In Europe, the German DAX is down about 1% to 13,750, while the FTSE 100 slides -0.8% to 7,443. Another big day of economic data with the monthly payrolls report at 8:30 AM with nonfarm ests for +391K and Private payrolls +385K.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index tumbled -153.30 points, or 3.56%, to 4,146.87

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -1,063.09 points, or 3.12%, to 32,997.97

·     The Nasdaq Composite plunged -647.16 points, or 4.99%, to 12,317.69

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -78.77 points, or 4.04% to 1,871.15

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET         Nonfarm Payrolls for April…est. 391K

·     8:30 AM ET         Private Payrolls for April…est. 385K

·     8:30 AM ET         Manufacturing Payrolls for April…est. 35K

·     8:30 AM ET         Unemployment Rate for April…est. 3.5%

·     8:30 AM ET         Average Hourly Earnings for April…est. +0.4%

·     1:00 PM EST       Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

·     3:00 PM ET         Consumer Credit for March…est. $25.0B

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ABR, ACMR, AXL, BWEN, CI, DKNG, ECOM, ESNT, FLR, GTN, LBRDA, LSXMA, MMI, NRG, QRTEA, ROAD, RUTH, SPB, SSP, UAA, VIVO, VST

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	2.23	110.49
Brent	2.58	113.48
Gold	7.10	1,882.80
EUR/USD	0.0045	1.0585
JPY/USD	0.23	130.37
10-Year Note	+0.013	3.081%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Beacon Roofing (BECN) Q1 EPS $0.61 vs. est. $0.51; Q1 revs rose 28% to $1.69B vs. est. $1.46B; Residential roofing product sales increased 21.8%, non-residential roofing product sales increased 47.9%, and complementary product sales increased 20.3% compared to the prior year

·     Chuy Inc. (CHUY) 1Q adj EPS $0.34 vs est. $0.30 on revs $100.5Mm vs est. $99.4Mm, comps +11.4%; not offering guidance

·     Darling Ingredients (DAR) announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to purchase Brazil’s largest independent rendering company, FASA Group for approximately R$2.8B Brazilian Real in cash, or $560M

·     DoorDash (DASH) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.48) vs. est. loss (-$0.41); Q1 revs $1.456B vs. est. $1.38B; Q1 orders grew 23% Y/Y to 404M. Marketplace GOV grew 25% Y/Y to $12.4B; said in Q1, added more new consumers than any quarter since Q1’21

·     Floor & Décor Holdings (FND) Q1 adj EPS $0.67 vs est. $0.65 on sales $1.03B vs est. $1.00B, reaffirmed FY view net sales $4.285-4.375B vs est. $4.33B and adj EBITDA $575-610Mm vs est. $579.1Mm; says remain on plan to open nine warehouse-format stores in the second quarter and 32 total warehouse-format stores in fiscal 2022

·     Leslie Pools (LESL) 2Q adj EPS ($0.01) vs est. ($0.02) on revs $228.1Mm vs est. $210.7Mm, comps +13.3%; guides FY sales $1.575-1.61B vs est. $1.519B and adj EPS $1.02-1.10 vs est. $1.00

·     Marriot Vacation (VAC) 1Q adj EPS $1.70 vs est. $1.53 on revs $1.05B vs est. $1.04B; reaffirms revs guidance, sees FY adj EPS $9.13-10.09 vs est. $9.22

·     Monster Inc. (MNST) 1Q EPS $0.55 vs est. $0.61 on sales $1.52B vs est. $1.43B; says continue to implement measures to mitigate the impact of increased costs experienced in our supply chain through reductions in promotions and other pricing actions in the United States and in EMEA. In the United States, we are planning for a market wide increase in pricing effective Sept 1, 2022

·     Peloton (PTON) is exploring a sale of a sizable minority stake, to shore up its business; is targeting potential investors including industry players and private-equity firms that could take a stake of around 15% to 20%, the WSJ reported last night

·     Shake Shack (SHAK) 1Q pro forma EPS ($0.19) vs est. ($0.22) on revs $203.4Mm vs est. $200.6Mm; comps +10.3%

·     Sweetgreen (SG) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.45) vs. est. (-$0.41); Q1 revs $102.6M vs. est. $101.55M; Q1 comp sales rose 35% vs. (26%) in the prior year period; reaffirms year revs and comp sales

·     Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Q1 EPS $1.08 vs. est. $0.91; Q1 revenue $987.486M vs. est. $971.5M; Q1 comp sales rose 16.0% at company restaurants and increased 20.4% at domestic franchise restaurants; comparable restaurant sales at company restaurants for first five weeks of q2 of fiscal 2022 increased 9.3% compared to prior year

·     Utz Brands Inc (UTZ) files for offering of up to 2.1M shares of class a common stock by the selling stockholders

 

Energy

·     EOG Resources (EOG) Q1 adj EPS $4.00 vs. est. $3.72; Q1 revs $3.98B vs. est. $5.78B; declares $1.80 per share special dividend; qtrly total crude oil equivalent volumes 883.3 MBoed; sees q2 total crude oil equivalent volumes 864.3-927.0 MBoed and FY oil equivalent 858.3-933.7 MBoed

·     Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Q1 adj EPS $2.97 vs. est. $3.50; Q1 revs $378.7M vs. est. $412.7M

·     SunPower (SPWR) Q1 EPS $0.02, in-line with estimates; Q1 revs $336.1M vs. est. $334.1M; affirmed prior 2022 guidance of $2,000-$2,400 adjusted ebitda per customer

 

Financials

·     Fleetcor Technologies (FLT) 1Q adj EPS $3.65 vs est. $3.53 on revs $789.2Mm vs est. $756.5Mm; guides 2Q revs $805-825Mm vs est. $781.4Mm and adj EPS $3.80-3.90 vs est. $3.72; sees FY revs $3,335-3.385B vs est. $3.257B and adj EPS $15.45-15.75 vs est. $15.49

·     Green Dot (GDOT) Q1 EPS $1.06 vs. est. $0.85; Q1 revs rose 2% to $400.6M vs. est. $394.14M; Q1 adjusted EBITDA1 was $90.3 million, or 22.9% of non-GAAP total operating revenues; raises 2022 EPS outlook to $2.32-$2.46 (est. $2.29)

·     Paylocity (PCTY) Q3 EPS $0.62 vs. est. $0.91; Q3 revs $245.97M vs. est. $241.69M; sees Q4 revenue $215.5M-$219.5M vs. est. $212.85M and year revs $839.2M-$843.2M vs. est. $832.44M

·     Redfin (RDFN) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.86) vs. est. loss (-$1.09); Q1 revs $597.3M vs. est. $551.12M; sees Q2 revenue $613M-$650M vs. est. $684.75M and sees Q2 loss $60M-$72M; Reached market share of 1.18% of U.S. existing home sales by value in Q1, up 2bps Y/Y

·     Square Inc. (SQ) 1Q adj EBITDA 195Mm vs est. $184Mm on revs $3.96B vs est. $4.16B; processed $43.5B GPV +31%; AfterPay contributed $65Mm revenue to cash app

·     Unum Group (UNM) Q1 adj EPS $1.36 vs. est. $0.76; Q1 revenue $2.98B vs. est. $3.02B; Q1 book value per common shr $52.62; FY22 after-tax adjusted operating income per shr now expected to grow 15 % to 20 % relative to FY21; increased expectation reflects strong 1q performance and improved outlook for balance of 2022

·     Zillow (ZG) 1Q revs $4.3B vs est. $3.39B, board approves additional $1B repurchase authorization

 

Healthcare

·     Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) 35M share IPO priced at $18.00

·     Cigna (CI) Q1 adjusted EPS $6.01 vs. est. $5.18; Q1 revs $44.11B vs. est. $43.41B; raises FY22 adjusted EPS view to at least $22.60 from at least $22.40 (est. $22.49) and reaffirms FY22 revenue view $177B

·     DaVita (DVA) Q1 adj EPS $1.61 vs. est. $1.87; Q1 revs $2.82B vs. est. $2.89B; sees FY22 adjusted EPS $7.50-$8.50 vs. est. $8.25; sees FY22 free cash flow $850M-$1.1B

·     Illumina (ILMN) Q1 adjusted EPS $1.07 vs. est. $0.90; Q1 revs rose 12% Y/Y to $1.22B, in-line with ests; Q1 product revenue $1.07B; gross margin 69.9% vs. 70.5% Y/Y; reiterating non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance of $4.00-$4.20 and revenue growth in the range of 14% to 16%

·     Insulet (PODD) Q1 EPS $0.40 vs. est. $0.23; Q1 revs rose 17.1% to $295.4M vs. est. $288.2M; sees Q2 revs up 12%-15% and FY revs up 12%-16%

·     McKesson (MCK) Q4 adj EPS $5.83 vs. est. $6.04; Q4 revs $66.1B vs. est. $63.61B; sees FY23 adjusted EPS 22.90-$23.60 vs. est. $23.11; continues its focused execution on company priorities including its planned exit from the European market

·     Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Q1 adj EPS $7.87 vs. est. $7.24; Q1 revs $897.8M vs. est. $867.82M; sees FY22 adjusted EPS $38.20-$38.50 vs. est. $38.20

·     Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Q1 adj EPS $3.52 vs. est. $3.49; Q1 revs $2.1B vs. est. $2.08B; still sees FY22 product revenues $8.4B-$8.6B and FY22 adjusted effective tax rate 21%-22%

 

Industrials & Materials

·     MasTec (MTZ) Q1 adjusted EPS loss (=$0.03) vs. est. loss (-$0.11); Q1 revs $1.95B vs. est. $1.79B; lowers FY22 adjusted EPS view to $4.22-$4.47 from $5.32 (est. $5.24); currently expects full year 2022 revenue to approximate $9.2B, down from prior view of $9.95B

·     Republics Service Group (RSG) 1Q adj EPS $1.14 vs est. $1.05 on revs $2.97B vs. est $2.89B

·     Virgin Galactic (SPCE) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.36) vs. est. loss (-$0.32); Q1 revenue $319,000 vs. est. $120,000; cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities of $1.22 bln as of March 31, 2022

 

Internet, Media & Telecom

·     2U Inc. (TWOU) 1Q adj EPS ($0.24) vs est. $($0.26) on revs $253.3Mm vs est. $252.9Mm; affirmed revs guide

·     Bill.com (BILL) 3Q adj EPS ($0.08) vs est. ($0.16) on revs $166.9Mm vs est. $157.9Mm, core organic revs +74% Y/Y; guides 4Q revs $182.3-183.3Mm vs est. $168.7Mm and adj EPS ($0.14)-($0.13) vs est. ($0.15);

·     FuboTV TV (FUBO) 1Q adj EPS ($0.69) vs est. ($0.64) on revs $236.7Mm vs est. $243Mm; sees 2Q N.Am revs $220-225Mm and FY N.Am revs $1.02-1.03B; guides North America subs 1.47 million to 1.49 million, saw 1.50 million to 1.51 million and rest of world subs 300,000 to 310,000, saw 270,000 to 280,000

·     Live Nation (LYV) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.39) v. est. (-$0.15); Q1 revs $1.80B vs. est. $1.9B; Concerts revenue $1.21 billion, and Ticketing revenue $480.4 million

·     News Corp. (NWSA) Q1 adjusted EPS $0.16 vs. est. $0.14; Q1 revs $2.49B vs. est. $2.5B; Digital real estate services revenue $416M, Subscription Video Services revenue $494M, Dow Jones revenue $487M and Book publishing revenue $515M

·     WWE Inc. (WWE) 1Q EPS $0.77 vs est. $0.63 on revs $333.4Mm vs est. $328.8Mm; reaffirms FY guide

 

Technology

·     Alarm.com holdings (ALRM) Q1 EPS $0.39 vs. est. $0.33; Q1 revs $205.4M vs. est. $191.6M; sees FY EPS $1.87-$1.88 vs. est. $1.89 and FY 22 revs $822.7M-$853.3M vs. est. $815.2M

·     Cloudflare (NET) 1Q adj EPS $0.01 vs est. $0.00 on revs $212.2Mm vs est. $205.7Mm; guides 2Q revs $226.5-227.5Mm vs est. $217.9Mm and adj EPS ($0.01)-$0.00 vs est. $0.00; sees FY revs $955-959Mm vs est. $932.7Mm and adj EPS $0.03-0.04 vs est. $0.03

·     HubSpot Inc. (HUBS) 1Q adj EPS $0.54 vs est. $0.47 on revs $395.6Mm vs est. $382.9Mm; sees 2Q revs $409-410Mm vs est. $411.7Mm and adj EPS $0.42-0.44 vs est. $0.51; sees FY revs $1.722-1.728B vs est. $1.729B and adj EPS $2.40-2.42 vs est. $2.41

·     Synaptics (SYNA) 3Q adj EPS $3.75 vs est. $3.55 on revs $470.1Mm vs est. $464.7Mm; guides 4Q revs $460-490Mm vs est. $466.8Mm, adj gr margin 60.5-61.5%

·     Teradata (TDC) Q1 EPS $0.65 vs. est. $0.63; Q1 revs $496M vs. est. $489.2M; guides Q2 EPS $0.26-$0.30 vs. est. $0.51 and lowers its year EPS view to $1.55-$1.65 from $1.82-$1.92 (est. $1.89) – said ceasing operations in Russia is expected to have a negative impact to total ARR of $55 million, total revenue of $60M, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of 29c.