Morning Preview: May 07, 2021

Auto PostDaily Market Report

Early Look

Friday, May 7, 2021

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

97.00

0.28%

34,539

S&P 500

10.25

0.26%

4,205

Nasdaq

39.50

0.29%

13,637

 

 

Stocks are looking higher on the final day of trading this week, adding to the late day surge that pushed major averages to finish at their best levels of the day Thursday, as investors look to this morning’s monthly jobs report for another sign of an improving economy. Estimates for the payroll data at 8:30 include est. for +978K nonfarm jobs, +893K private payrolls, +55K manufacturing and unemployment est. 5.8%; MoM avg hourly earnings est. unchanged. European and Asian markets are looking higher following upbeat data out of China and Germany. The Nikkei Index rose 26 points to 29,357, the Shanghai Index fell -22 points to 3,418, and the Hang Seng Index dipped -26 points to 28,610. In Europe, the German DAX is up over 190 points to 15,390, while the FTSE 100 gains around 50 points to 7,125. Yesterday’s late day surge pushed the Nasdaq into positive territory in the final minutes of the day, helping prevent a 5-day losing streak, which would have been its longest since October. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new record high led by GS, JPM, and CSCO. Financials and mega cap stocks paced the gains late day despite a further decline in rates. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis point to 1.56%, closer to the low end of the day’s range than the top.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 34.03 points, or 0.82%, to 4,201.62

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 318.19 points, or 0.93%, to 34,548.53

·     The Nasdaq Composite climbed 50.42 points, or 0.37%, to 13,632.84

·     The Russell 2000 Index finished little changed, or 0.00% to 2,241.52

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM EST      Nonfarm Payrolls for April…est. 978K

·     8:30 AM EST      Private Payrolls for April…est. 893K

·     8:30 AM EST      Manufacturing Payrolls for April…est. 55K

·     8:30 AM EST      Unemployment Rate for April…est. 5.8%

·     8:30 AM EST      Average Hourly Earnings MoM for April…est. 0.0%

·     10:00 AM EST    Wholesale Inventories for March…est. 1.4%

·     1:00 PM EST       Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

·     3:00 PM EST       Consumer Credit for March…est. $20.0B

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ABR, AES, AMCX, ANIP, AXL, BWEN, CI, CLMT, CNK, DKNG, DXPE, ELAN, FLR, FWONA, GCI, GLP, GVA, HE, IAC, IEP, IBP, ITT, JOUT, KOP, LEA, LSXMA, LTRPA, LXP, MD, MGI, MMI, NKLA, NOG, QRTEA, RDUS, ROAD, RUTH, SMLP, SPB, SR, TILE, VTR, ZEUS

 

Other Key Events:

·     Credit Suisse eXtreme Services Conference (virtual), 5/6-5/7

·     Davidson Financial Institution Conference (virtual), 5/5-5/7

·     Goldman Sachs European SMID Symposium (virtual), 5/4-5/7

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

-0.03

64.68

Brent

-0.02

68.07

Gold

5.50

1,820.70

EUR/USD

0.0019

1.2084

JPY/USD

0.02

109.11

10-Year Note

+0.016

1.5777%

 

 

World News

·     China Caixin Apr Servs PMI higher: 56.3 vs 54.2 previous; China Apr Trade Balance higher: $42.86b vs $28.1b consensus; China Apr Exports higher: 32.3% y/y vs 24.1% consensus; China Apr Imports higher: 43.1% vs 42.5% consensus

·     German companies increased their exports for the eleventh month in a row in March, data showed, with export growth coming in at 1.2%, twice the rate economists had forecast.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     AMC Entertainment (AMC) 1Q EPS ($1.42) vs est. ($1.30) on revs $148.3Mm vs est. $153.4Mm, says looking at an increasingly favorable environment for movie going and for AMC over coming few months; as of March 31, operating at 585 domestic theaters with limited seating capacity, operating at 97 international leased and partnership theaters with limited seating capacity

·     Beyond Meat (BYND) Q1 adj EPS loss (42c) vs. est. loss (19c); Q1 revs $108.2M below est. $113.67M; Q1 gross profit of $32.7M, or gross margin of 30.2% of net revenues; Q1 adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $10.8M, or -10% of net revenues; continues to experience significantly reduced demand in its foodservice channel; says cannot provide full-year guidance for 2021 with reasonable certainty

·     Carvana (CVNA) 1Q adj EPS ($0.46) vs est ($0.65) on revs $2.245B, weekly avg vehicle production +26% sequentially, retail units sold 92,457 +76%

·     Funko (FNKO) 1Q EPS $0.17 vs est $0.11 on revs $189.2Mm vs est $180.3Mm; guides FY net sales +33-38% vs est +29.1%, sees FY adj EPS $0.98-1.12 vs est $0.98

·     Groupon (GRPN) Q1 adj EPS 25c vs. est. loss (58c); Q1 revs $264M vs. est. $225M; raises FY21 rev view to $950M-$990M from $930M-$980M (est. $966.26M) and boosts FY21 adjusted EBITDA view to $110M-$120M from $100M-$110M

·     Monster Beverage (MNST) Q1 EPS 59c vs. est. 61c; Q1 revs $1.24B vs. est. $1.22B; volume 138.6-million-unit cases, +20% y/y and gross margin 57.5% vs. 60% y/y

·     Peloton (PTON) Q3 EPS loss (3c) vs. est. loss (12c); Q3 revs $1.26B vs. est. $1.11B; Q3 ending Connected Fitness Subscriptions grew 135% to over 2.08M and paid Digital Subscriptions grew 404% to approximately 891,000; total Members grew to over 5.4M; Q3 Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn was 0.31%; Q3 12-month retention rate was 92%.

·     Planet Fitness (PLNT) Q1 adj EPS 10c vs. est. 19c; Q1 revs $111.9M vs. est. $122.69M; Q1 system wide same store sales decreased 14.9%; not providing outlook for the year

·     Post Holdings (POST) 2Q adj EPS $0.29 vs. est. $0.55 on sales $1.5B vs. est. $1.42B; guides 2H adj EBITDA $590-620Mm vs. est. about $630Mm, sees FY CAPEX $225-250Mm

·     Shake Shack (SHAK) 1Q EPS $0.01 vs est ($0.09) on revs $155.3Mm vs est $161.9Mm, comps +5.7%, April comps +86%; avg wkly sales exit 1Q at $68k in March; guides 2Q revs $174-183Mm vs est $183.3Mm, comps +40-50%, not providing full guide for FY

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Axon Enterprise (AXON) 1Q adj EPS $0.31 vs. est. $0.21 on revs $195Mm vs. est. $165.9Mm; guides FY revs $740-780Mm vs. est. $760Mm, sees adj EBITDA $140-150Mm vs. est. $133Mm

·     Boise Cascade (BCC) Q1 EPS $3.76 vs. est. $2.46; Q1 revs $1.82B vs. est. $1.68B

·     Energy Transfer (ET) Q1 adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled from a year ago to $5.04B and easily topped $2.72B analyst consensus estimate and now expects to realize a $2.4B total impact from the Texas winter storm, prompting it to raise full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $12.9B-$13.3B from $10.6B-$11B

·     EOG Resources (EOG) Q1 adj EPS $1.62 vs. est. $1.48; Q1 revs $3.69B vs. est. $3.64B; declares special $1.00 dividend

·     MasTec (MTZ) 1Q EPS $0.89 vs est $0.77 on revs $1.8B vs est $1.63B; guides 2Q adj EPS $1.25 vs est $1.05, sees 2Q revs about $2.1B vs est $1.82B; guides FY adj EPS $5.40 vs est $4.94

·     Resideo Technologies (REZI) 1Q EPS $0.33 vs est $0.33 on revs $1.4B vs est $1.3B; guides 2Q revs $1.4-1.45B vs est $1.25B, sees FY revs $5.5-5.7B vs est $5.3B; says acquires Shoreview Distribution, terms not disclosed

·     SPX Corp. (SPXC) 1Q adj EPS $0.68 vs est $0.67 on revs $398.5Mm vs est $390.3Mm; sees FY adj EPS $3.06-3.26 vs est $3.15

 

Financials

·     AIG Inc. (AIG) Q1 adj EPS $1.05 vs. est. 95c; qtrly total general insurance net premiums written $6.48 bln, up 9%; qtrly total general insurance underwriting income $73 mln vs underwriting loss $87 mln; book value per common share was $72.37 as of march 31, 2021, down 5.3% from dec 31, 2020; qtrly general insurance underwriting income included $422 mln of catastrophe losses, net of reinsurance, primarily related to winter storms

·     Square Inc. (SQ) Q1 adj EPS 41c vs. est. 16c; Q1 revs ex Bitcoin was $1.55B, but total net revs up $5.06B up 266% YoY as Bitcoin revs were $3.51B; transaction-based revenue was $960 million in the first quarter of 2021, up 27% year over year; recognized a loss of $29 million related to mark-to-market valuation of investment in DoorDash, $20 million bitcoin impairment.

·     Uniti Group (UNIT) 1Q adj FFO/shr $0.41 vs est $0.32 on revs $272.6Mm vs est $271.3Mm; guides FY revs $1.08-1.09B vs est $1.09B

 

Healthcare

·     Cigna (CI) Q1 adj EPS $4.73 vs. est. $4.38; Q1 revs $40.97B vs. est. $40.24B; raises FY21 adj EPS view to at least $20.20 from at least $20.00 (est. $20.26) and boosts FY21 revenue view to at least $166B from at least $165B (est. $165.76B); Customer relationships increased to 189.9 million from 167.0 million, as pharmacy customers rose to 101.0 million from 78.8 million.

·     ChemoCentryx Inc. (CCXI) said an FDA advisory committee issued a mostly split vote on the company’s drug candidate avacopan for the treatment of ANCA-associated vasculitis; the vote was 9-9 on whether the company’s efficacy data support approval of avacopan for the treatment of adults with the two most common subtypes of the disease.

·     Endo Pharma (ENDP) Q1 adj EPS 73c vs. est. 48c; Q1 revs $717.92M vs. est. $668.65M; raises FY21 adj EPS view to $1.95-$2.30 from $1.80-$2.30 (est. $2.11) and boosts FY21 revenue view to $2.65B-$2.79B from $2.55B-$2.79B

·     Guardant Health (GH) Q1 EPS loss (49c) vs. est. loss (89c); Q1 revs $78.7M vs. est. $73.75M; now expects FY21 revs to be in the range of $360M-$370M, representing 26% to 29% growth YoY and clinical volumes for 2021 are expected to be greater than 90,000 tests, growing at least 42% YoY

·     iBio (IBIO) surges over 40% after hours as reports successful covid-19 vaccine toxicology study results and announces next-gen covid-19 vaccine program

·     Insulet (PODD) 1Q EPS $0.00 vs. est. $0.07 on revs $252.3Mm vs. est. $247.2Mm; guides FY revs +16-20% vs. est. +19.7%

·     McKesson (MCK) Q4 adj EPS $5.05 vs. est. $5.04; Q4 revs $59.1B vs. est. $61.09B; sees FY22 adj EPS $18.85-$19.45 vs. est. $18.85; sees FY21 revenue growth of 3%-6% (est. $250.66B)

·     Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Q1 EPS $6.56 vs. est. $5.61; Q1 revs $804.4M vs. est. $758.7M; sees Q2 adj EPS $7.50-$7.65 vs. est. $6.48; and for Q2, anticipates that local currency sales growth will be in the range of 19%-21% (est. $803.84M)

·     Natera Inc. (NTRA) 1Q EPS ($0.74) vs. est. ($1.02) on revs $152.3Mm vs. est. $114.4Mm; guides FY revs $550-575Mm vs. est. $514.7Mm, gr mgn approx 52-55% vs. est. 50.6%, SG&A $440-460Mm, research and dev $165-185Mm, net cash burn $230-250Mm

·     Phibro Animal health (PAHC) 3Q adj EPS $0.34 vs. est. $0.34 on revs $212Mm vs. est. $208Mm; guides 4Q net sales $213-217Mm vs. est. $200Mm, sees adj EPS $0.30-0.32 vs. est. $0.28; guides FY revs $826-830Mm vs. est. $806Mm, sees FY adj EPS $1.25-1.27 vs. est. $1.21

·     Puma Biotech (PBYI) 1Q adj EPS $0.55 vs. est. $0.09 on revs $98.2Mm vs. est. $71.5Mm

·     Quidel Corp. (QDEL) Q1 adj EPS $4.38 vs. est. $4.71; Q1 revs $375.3M vs. est. $400.76M

·     Tivity Health (TVTY) 1Q EPS $0.40 vs. est. $0.37 on revs $108.1Mm vs. est. $110.7Mm; guides FY revs $465-485Mm vs. est. $472.7Mm, see FY adj EPS $1.49-1.56 vs. est. $1.52

·     Twist Biosciences (TWST) Q2 EPS loss (78c) vs. est. loss (77c); Q2 revs $31.2M vs. est. $28.32M; sees FY21 revs $121M-$129M vs. est. $120.21M

·     ViewRay (VRAY) received seven new orders for MRIdian systems totaling $40.9 million, compared to four new orders totaling $22.6 million in the first quarter of 2020; total backlog increased to $264.3 million as of March 31, 2021, compared to $230.8 million as of March 31, 2020; total revenue of $15.5 million primarily from two revenue units, compared to $14.3 million primarily from three revenue units, including one system upgrade, in the first quarter of 2020

 

Media & Telecom

·     comScore (SCOR) 1Q EPS ($0.49) vs est ($0.30) on revs $90.3Mm vs est $87.1Mm; guides FY revs +3-5% vs est +4%, sees FY adj EBITDA mgn 6-8% vs est 7.5%

·     IAC Inc. (IAC) Q1 revs up 28% to $876M vs. est. $842M; reported a profit of $329.1 million, compared with a loss of $328.2 million in the prior year’s quarter; Q1 earnings were $3.46 a share, compared with a loss of $3.86 a share a year earlier

·     iHeart radio (IHRT) Q1 revs $707M vs. est. $689.29M; Q1 GAAP operating loss of $76M, compared to $1.7B in prior-year; sees Q2 revs up about 65%; remain confident that we will be back to 2019 adjusted Ebitda levels by end of 2021

·     Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) Q1 EPS loss ($1.44) vs. est. loss ($1.55); Q1 revs $290.6M vs. est. $291.79M; said end of Q1 had total cash and cash equivalents of $3B, which includes $1.1B of free cash; concerts pipeline for 2022 up double digits from 2019; Ticketmaster continues signing new clients, adding over 5 million net new fee-bearing tickets year-to-date

·     News Corp. (NWSA) Q3 adj EPS 9c vs. est. 5c; Q3 revs $2.34B vs. est. $2.2B; book publishing revenues in quarter increased $78 mln, or 19%, compared to prior year; in other segment, company expects costs in q4 to increase by approximately $20 mln compared to prior year

 

Technology

·     Avalara (AVLR) 1Q adj EPS ($0.08) vs est ($0.11) on revs 153.6Mm vs est $143.11Mm; guides 2Q revs $153-155Mm vs est $148.25Mm, see FY revs $650-654Mm vs est $631.5Mm

·     Cloudflare (NET) Q1 adj EPS loss (3c) vs. est. loss (3c); Q1 revs $138.1M vs. est. $131.02M; crossed 4 million total customers, and our large customer count was up 70% YoY; sees FY21 adj EPS (11c)-(10c) vs. est. (9c) and boosts FY21 revenue view to $612M-$616M from $589M-$593M (est. $592.8M)

·     Cognex (CGNX) Q1 adj EPS 36c vs. est. 35c; Q1 revs $239.03M vs. est. $237.95M; sees Q2 revenue $250M-$270M vs. est. $228.27M; sees Q2 gross margin expected to be in the mid-70% range

·     Data Dog (DDOG) 1Q adj EPS $0.06 vs est $0.03 on revs $199Mm vs est $186.7Mm; guides 2Q revs $211-213Mm vs est $196.5Mm, sees 2Q adj EPS $0.03-0.04 vs est $0.03; guides FY revs $880-890Mm vs est $833.65Mm, sees FY adj EPS 0.13-0.16 vs est $0.14

·     Dropbox (DBX) Q1 adj EPS 35c vs. est. 30c; Q1 revs $511.6M vs. est. $505.18M; qtrly paying users ended at 15.83 mln, as compared to 14.59 mln for same period last year; qtrly total ARR ended at $2.112 bln, an increase of 13% from same period last year; total ARR ended at $2.112 bln, an increase of 13% from same period last year

·     Expedia (EXPE) Q1 adj EPS loss ($2.02) vs. est. loss ($2.31); Q1 revs $1.246B vs. est. $1.13B; Q1 gross bookings $15.42B

·     GoPro (GPRO) Q1 adj EPS loss (3c) vs. est. 0c; Q1 revs $204M vs. est. $186.69M; GoPro subscription surpassed one mln subscribers in April; Gaap and non-Gaap gross margin for q1 2021 was 38.6% and 39.2%, respectively, up 640 and 500 basis points, respectively YoY

·     Microchip (MCHP) Q4 EPS $1.85 vs. est. $1.74; Q4 revs $1.467B vs. est. $1.46B; sees Q1 EPS $1.85-$1.85 vs. est. $1.81; sees Q1 revenue $1.519B-$1.577B vs. est. $1.51B; raises dividend

·     Motorola Solutions (MSI) Q1 adj EPS $1.87 vs. est. $1.62; Q1 revs $1.8B vs. est. $1.75B; raises FY21 adj EPS view to $8.70-$8.80 from prior $8.50-$8.62 and boosts FY21 revenue growth view to 8%-9% from 7.25%-8%

·     Roku Inc. (ROKU) Q1 EPS loss (54c) vs. est. loss (13c); Q1 revs $574.2M vs. est. $490.56M; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $125.9M; Q1 ARPU $32.14, up 32% y/y; added 2.4 million incremental Active Accounts in Q1 2021 to reach 53.6 million; sees Q2 net revenue $610M-$620M above est. $549.4M

·     Stamp.com (STMP) Q1 adj EPS $2.08 vs. est. $1.69; Q1 revs $189.1M vs. est. $188.19M; Q1 Mailing and Shipping revenue (which includes service, product and insurance revenue but excludes Customized Postage) was $189.1 million, up 28% compared to the first quarter of 2020; sees FY21 operating expenses increasing up to 20% or more

·     Synaptics (SYNA) Q3 EPS $2.03 vs. est. $1.89; Q3 revs $325.8M vs. est. $325.97M; sees Q4 revenue$310M-$340M vs. est. $311.34M; Q3 GAAP gross margin of 47.7% and record non-GAAP gross margin of 55.1%

·     Teradata Corp. (TDC) Q1 EPS 69c vs. est. 47c; Q1 revs $491M vs. est. $467.72M; raises FY21 adj EPS view to $1.61-$1.67 vs. est. $1.71; still sees FY21 Public cloud ARR to increase by at least 100% YoY; Total ARR is expected to grow at a mid- to high-single-digit percentage YoY; Recurring revenue is expected to grow at a mid- to high-single digit percentage YoY

·     TripAdvisor (TRIP) Q1 adj EPS loss (39c) vs. est. loss (32c); Q1 revs $123M vs. est. $120.84M; Jan, Feb, March 2021 monthly unique users on TripAdvisor-branded websites improved sequentially, approximately 53%, 56%, and 58%, respectively, of 2019’s comparable period

·     Yelp Inc. (YELP) Q1 EPS loss (8c) vs. est. loss (26c); Q1 revs $232.1M vs. est. $228.32M; raises full year 2021 business outlook and now expects $1 bln to $1.02 bln of net revenue and $175 million to $195 million of adjusted EBITDA

_________________________________________________________________

Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.

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