Early Look

Friday, May 8, 2020

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	268.00	1.12%	24,111
S&P 500	32.50	1.13%	2,912
Nasdaq	97.50	1.07%	9,205

 

 

U.S. stock futures are rising following reports that U.S.-China trade representatives held a phone call to discuss reducing tensions between the global superpowers amid testiness around the COVID-19 pandemic. The gains come ahead of the monthly nonfarm payroll jobs report at 8:30 AM EST, which is expected to show that over 21M American citizens lost their job in the recent month due to the impact of the coronavirus global market shutdown. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 504 points to 210,179, the Shanghai Index gained 23 points to 2,895 and the Hang Seng Index gained 249 points to settle at 24,230 to end the week. In Europe, the German DAX is higher by around 90 points to 10,850, while the FTSE 100 is up about 80 points to 5,935. Gains for U.S. averages on Thursday were again broad based but also paced by strength in technology as the Nasdaq Composite Index wrapped up at 8,979.66, up 125.27 points, or 1.4%, notching a 0.08% year-to-date advance, erasing its losses for 2020. For the week, the Dow is up 0.6%, the S&P 500 has gained 1.2%, while the Nasdaq has climbed 4.4%, as of Thursday’s close despite mixed earnings and weak economic data as market focus on the positive news that number of news states are set to see a limited opening of retail operations today.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index gained 32.77 points, or 1.15%, to 2,881.19

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 211.25 points, or 0.89%, to 23,875.89

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 125.27 points, or 1.41%, to 8,979.66

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 19.92 points, or 1.58% to 1,282.93

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM EST      Change in Nonfarm Payrolls for April…est. -21.7M

·     8:30 AM EST      Change in Private Payrolls for April…est. -21.7M

·     8:30 AM EST      Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for April…est. -2.5M

·     8:30 AM EST      Unemployment rate for April…est. 16.0%

·     8:30 AM EST      Average Hourly Earnings for April…est. 0.4%

·     10:00 AM EST    Wholesale Inventories MoM for March…est. (-1.0%)

·     1:00 PM EST       Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ALTR, AVA, AXL, BCC, BLMN, BR, CARR, CLNY, ESNT, EXC, GPOR, HSC, KIM, LEA, NBL, NBLX, OUT, PBF, PNW, PPL, SABR, SEAS, SHO, SUP, SXC, TEN, TILE, UFS

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	0.57	24.12
Brent	0.40	29.86
Gold	6.70	1,732.70
EUR/USD	0.0006	1.084
JPY/USD	0.05	106.33
10-Year Note	-0.029	0.611%

 

 

World News

·     U.S. Trade Negotiator Robert Lighthizer and his Chinese counterpart Liu He and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin held a phone call on Friday, which resulted in the two largest economies in the world agreeing to strengthen macroeconomic and public-health cooperation, Reuters reported. Trump has said he would impose more tariffs on Chinese goods as punishment for what he says is misleading the world about the novel strain of coronavirus which was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Uber Technologies (UBER) Q1 EPS loss ($2.26) vs. est. loss (83c); Q1 adj revs $3.26B vs. est. $3.02B; Q1 gross bookings $15.78B vs. est. $15.27B; monthly active platform consumers 103M vs. est. 102.7M; Q1 UBER eats bookings $4.68B vs. est. $4.32B; says April trip numbers down 80% YoY

·     Alarm Holdings (ALRM) 1Q adj EPS $0.42 vs est $0.34 on revs $151.9Mm vs est $125.3Mm; guides FY revs $515-535Mm (was $547-557.5Mm) vs est $545.1Mm, sees FY adj EBITDA $100-103Mm vs est $106.7Mm, sees FY adj EPS $1.36-1.45 (was $1.48-1.49) vs est $1.46

·     Callaway Golf (ELY) Q1 EPS 30c/$442M vs. est. 34c/$460.11M; Completed issuance of 2.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026, raising net proceeds of approximately $250 million after certain transaction costs; not providing financial guidance at this time

·     Camping World (CWH) Q1 EPS loss (3c) but seeing positive trends and share gains as revs were $1.03 billion, -3.5% YoY, 1Q adjusted Ebitda $36.0 million, +68% YoY and cash totaled $283.3 million on March 31, 2020

·     Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) 1Q adj EPS $1.53 vs est $1.50 on net revs $221.7MM vs est $220.7Mm; sees 2Q net revs $179.7Mm (was $188.5Mm) vs est $179.67Mm, sees 2Q EPS $0.89 (was $1.03) vs est $0.88; withdraws 3Q, 4Q guidance

·     Herbalife (HLF) Q1 EPS 83c/$1.3B vs. est. 59c/$1.17B; 1Q volume +5.6% vs. +6.10% YoY; providing preliminary April volume point results, which estimates declined 1% worldwide compared to April 2019; to periodically reassess its ability to provide guidance for full year 2020 as and when it believes the impact of the pandemic can be reasonably estimated

·     Host Hotels (HST) 1Q AFFO/share $0.23 vs est $0.28; says to suspend or pay nominal div until further notice, says to significantly cut monthly cash expenses, cuts FY CAPEX by about $100-125Mm; sees possibility of further hotel closures

·     Macy’s Inc. (M) said it expects to incur a goodwill impairment charge in the first quarter, as the market valuation of the company’s common shares has continued to decline; said it will delay its first quarter 10-Q filing, that is due June 11, 2020, due to circumstances related to the novel coronavirus

·     Monster Beverage (MNST) 1Q EPS $0.52 vs. est. $0.48, gross margin 60% vs. est. $60.4%, revs $1.06B vs. est. $996Mm

·     SkyWest (SKYW) Q1 EPS 59c/$730M vs. est. 91c/$715.61M; had $578M in cash and marketable securities at March 31, up from $520M at December 31

·     Spirit Airlines (SAVE) 17.5M share secondary priced at $10.00

·     Stamps.com (STMP) 1Q adj EPS $1.32 vs est $0.99 on revs $151.3Mm vs est $132Mm; still sees FY revs $570-600Mm vs est $583Mm, affirms FY adj EPS view $4.00-5.00 vs est $4.47; says USPS eliminating customize postage program

·     Turtle Beach (HEAR) 1Q EPS ($0.23) vs est ($0.75) on revs $35Mm vs est $29.6Mm; sees FY revs, adj EBITDA, net above forecast; sees FY revs $224-234Mm vs prior $214-224Mm, est $218.6Mm; sees FY adj EBITDA $9-14Mm vs prior $5-10Mm, est $7Mm; sees adj EPS ($0.16-0.09) vs est ($0.38)

 

Energy

·     Con Ed (ED) 1Q adj EPS $1.35 vs est $1.41; guides FY adj EPS $4.15-4.35 (was $4.30-4.50) vs est $4.37

·     Gulfport Energy (GPOR) earnings topped views while net daily production declined 17% Y/Y to ~1,054 MMcfe per day, with adjusted EBITDA of $128.3M from down $209M in Q1 2019; currently forecasts 2020 total capex to be at or below the low end of previous guidance range of $285M – $310M

·     EOG Resources (EOG) Q1 adjusted EPS 55c/$4.72B vs. est. 66c/$3.98B; said Q1 crude oil production volumes were in line with the target range while capital expenditures were 14% below the target midpoint; total company crude oil volumes of 483,300 barrels of oil per day grew 11% compared with the first quarter 2019

·     SunPower (SPWR) Q1 adjusted EPS loss (10c)/$454.2M vs. est. loss (19c)/$408.75M; expects to complete planned company split at end of Q2

·     Vivint Solar (VSLR) 1Q adj EPS ($1.01) vs est ($0.25) on revs $91.2Mm vs est $79.7Mm; withdraws FY guidance

 

Financials

·     American Homes 4 rent (AMH) 1Q core FFO/shr $0.29 vs est $0.29 on revs $289.65Mm vs est $290.5Mm; same-home avg occupied days 95.3%; avg monthly realized rent +3.6%; April same-home monthly turnover 3% vs 3.2% yr ago; has offered zero % increases on renewal leases signed April/May; same-home avg occupied days 95.1% for April; says collected 95% of April rents and 82% of May rents thru May5

·     Fiserv (FISV) Q1 adjusted EPS 99c/$3.77B vs. est. 99c/$3.53B; withdraws outlook; names Frank Bisignano as next CEO

·     FleetCor (FLT) Q1 adjusted EPS $3.00/$661.1M vs. est. $2.83/$648.5M; said January and February revenue started quite well, 8% and 8% growth respectively, prior to experiencing the mid-March shutdowns

·     Intuit (INTU) sees 3Q revs $2.99-3.00B vs est $3.3B, sees 3Q adj EPS $4.46-4.49 (was $5.90-5.95) vs est $5.36

·     MGIC Investment (MTG) Q1 revs rise 5.2% YoY to $306.9M; 1Q net premiums earned $260.9 million, +4.5% y/y and 1Q net premiums written $246.0 million, +0.7% y/y

 

Healthcare

·     Axonics (AXNX) 4M share Spot Secondary priced at $32.50

·     Ayala Pharmaceuticals (AYLA) 3.67M share IPO priced at $15.00

·     Danaher (DHR) 9.509M share Secondary priced at $163.00

·     Guardian Health (GH) Q1 EPS loss (29c)/$67.5M (up 84% YoY) vs. est. loss (39c)/$56.47M; withdraws year outlook

·     Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Q1 adjusted EPS $4.00/$649.2M vs. est. $3.90/$648.82M; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $4.05-$4.45 vs. est. $3.93 and sees Q2 local currency sales will decline approximately -8% to -12% vs. est. $653.62M

·     Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) Q1 EPS loss (43c)/$51.2M vs. est. loss (73c)/$46.7M; cash and equivalents rose 71% YoY to $83.4M; operating expenses fell -27% YoY to $65.5M; Nerlynx revs $48.6M vs. $45.6M YoY

·     Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Q1 EPS loss ($2.44) vs. est. ($3.14); cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities as of March 31, 2020 were approximately $0.9 billion compared to $1.0 billion at December 31, 2019; operating expenses down -21% YoY to $133.9M

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Axon Enterprises (AAXN) 1Q adj EPS $0.40 vs est $0.17 on revs $147.2Mm vs est $131Mm; withdraws FY forecast

·     Boise Cascade (BCC) Q1 EPS 31c/$1.17B vs. est. $1.09B; 1Q adjusted Ebitda $59.6B, +46% y/y vs. est. $51.6M; (said Q1 results include 32c after tax, of accelerated depreciation and other curtailment-related costs)

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Amdocs (DOX) Q2 EPS $1.08/$1.05B vs. est. $1.06/$1.04B; sees Q3 EPS $1.00-$1.08 on revs 990M-$1.040B below est. $1.16/$1.05B; sees FY20 EPS growth of roughly 0.0%-4.0% YoY and FY20 revenue growth of (0.5%) -2.5% YoY

·     Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q1 adjusted EPS $3.77/$2.29B vs. est. $6.10/$2.31B. Q1 gross travel bookings for Booking Holdings were $12.4B, a decrease of 51% over a year ago, or approximately 50% on a constant-currency basis; room nights booked in the 1st quarter decreased 43% over a year ago;

·     Cognizant (CTSH) Q1 adjusted EPS 96c/$4.2B vs. est. 93c/$4.22B; not providing guidance and maintain dividend

·     Cloudflare (NET) 1Q ADJ eps ($0.04) vs est ($0.06), sees 2Q adj EPS ($0.06-0.05) vs est ($0.06); guides FY adj EPS ($0.21-0.19) vs est ($0.20); reaffirms FY revs forecast

·     Drobox (DBX) 1Q adj EPS $0.17 vs est $0.14 on revs $455Mm vs est $452.2Mm; Total ARR ended at $1.864 billion, an increase of 16% from the same period last year. On a constant currency basis, Total ARR grew $52.8M Qoq and year-over-year growth would have been 17%; paying users ended at 14.6 million, as compared to 13.2 million for the same period last year. Average revenue per paying user was $126.30, as compared to $121.04 YoY

·     Glu Mobile Inc. (GLUU) announced a three-and-a-half-year extension to the company’s existing exclusive partnership with Kim Kardashian West.

·     Kingsoft Cloud (KC) 30M share IPO priced at $17.00

·     Live Nation (LYV) Q1 EPS loss (94c)/$1.37B vs. est. loss (73c)/$1.44B; targeting $600M cost reduction program in 2020; 90% of fans holding onto tickets for rescheduled shows

·     Microchip tech (MCHP) Q4 EPS $1.46/$1.33B vs. est. $1.35/$1.32B; guides Q1 EPS $1.25-$1.45 vs. est. $1.20 on sales down 2%-1-% vs. Q4; raises quarterly dividend to 36.75c

·     Motorola Solutions (MSI) Q1 EPS $1.49/$1.7B vs. est. $1.28/$1.66B; reports backlog of $10.4B, up $462M versus a year ago, inclusive of $462M of unfavorable currency rates; expects Q2 revenue decline of (17%) to (14%) compared with last year; withdraws year view

·     Nuance (NUAN) Q2 non-GAAP EPS 21c/$369.3M vs. est. 17c/$352.99M; cuts FY20 non-GAAP EPS view to 76c-86c from 82c-90c and lowers FY20 revenue view to $1.41B-$1.49B from $1.5B-$1.54B (est. $1.48B)

·     Proofpoint (PFPT) 1Q adj EPS $0.38 vs. est. $0.27 on revs $249.8MM vs. est. $246Mm; sees 2Q adj EPS $0.38-0.41 vs. est. $0.31

·     Qorvo (QRVO) Q4 EPS $1.57 on sales $787.8M (up 16% YoY) vs. est. $1.33/$764.5M; sees Q1 revs $710M-$750M vs. est. $702.6M

·     Qualys (QLYS) 1Q adj EPS $0.65 vs. est. $0.60; sees 2Q adj EPS $0.63-0.65 vs. est. $0.61, sees 2Q revs $88-88.6Mm vs. est. $88.7Mm; sees FY revs $354-359Mm vs. prior $364-369Mm, est. $359.7Mm

·     Roku (ROKU) 1Q pro forma EPS ($0.45) vs. est. ($0.47) on net revs $321Mm vs. est. $311.9Mm; active accts +37%, streaming hours +49%, ARPU +28%

·     Trade Desk (TTD) Q1 EPS 90c/$160.7M vs. est. 42c/$158.34M; Q1 Total Mobile spend grew 38% from Q12019 to Q12020, Mobile Video spend grew 74% from Q12019 to Q12020, Mobile In-App spend grew 55% from Q12019 to Q12020, Connected TV spend grew 100% from Q12019 to Q12020, Audio spend grew 60% from Q12019 to Q12020

·     Trip Advisor (TRIP) 1Q adj EPS $0.07 vs est $0.16 on revs $278Mm vs est $289.2Mm; sees 2Q materially worse than 1Q, sees little to no revs in 2Q, sees significantly negative EBITDA in 2Q, sees some improvement in 3Q but expects neg adj EBITDA thru 3Q

·     Yelp Inc. (YELP) 1Q EPS ($0.22) vs est ($0.23) on net revs $249.9Mm vs est $228.5Mm, says page views, searches down about 60% by end March for month, saw early signs of stabilization in ops in late April; sees revs in April down about 35% yr/yr