Early Look

Friday, May 9, 2025

US stock futures inch higher with investors’ attention focused on the outcome of the weekend trade talks between China and the US after President Donald Trump signed his first trade deal with the UK on Thursday. The United States and Britain agreed to a trade deal, the first of hopefully many while U.S. President Donald Trump recommended buying stocks for the second time. Trump and UK Prime Minister Starmer announced a limited bilateral trade deal that leaves in place Trump’s 10% tariffs on British exports, modestly expands agricultural access for both countries and lowers prohibitive U.S. duties on British car exports. Trump also said he expects there to be substantive negotiations between the United States and China on trade this weekend and predicted that punitive U.S. tariffs on Beijing of 145% would likely come down. Stocks did pare gains into the close as the S&P 500 (SPX) failed to hold to the 5,700 level and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) failed to hold its 200dma technical resistance. Bitcoin prices extend yesterday’s gains, popping over $103,000 now after topping 100K for the first time since February.

After the Fed was in their blackout period into this weeks FOMC meeting, schedule busy today: 6:15 AM: John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks at an event, 6:45 AM: Michael S. Barr, Governor, speaks at an event, 8:30 AM: Adriana D. Kugler, Governor, speaks at an event, 10:00 AM: Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, speaks at an event, 11:00 AM: Christopher J. Waller, Governor, speaks at an event, and 7:45 PM: Lisa D. Cook, Governor, delivers a speech at the Spring 2025 James Madison College

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 574 points to 37,503, the Shanghai Index fell -10 points to 3,342, and the Hang Seng Index rose 91 points to 22,867. In Europe, the German DAX is up 156 points to 23,509, while the FTSE 100 rises 43 points to 8,575. Oil prices extended gains as the market turned its attention to trade talks between the US and China this weekend after President Donald Trump announced an agreement with the UK Thursday. In earnings overnight, shares of MCHP, NET, PINS, TTD in technology all looking higher on results/guidance, while overnight earnings losers include EXPE, GMED, HUBS, ILMN, IOVA, ONTO and SG.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 254.48 points, or 0.62%, to 41,368.45.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 189.98 points, or 1.07%, to 17,928.14.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 36.75 points, or 1.85% to 2,026.41.

• Needham 20th Annual Tech, Media & Consumer Conference, 5/8-5/13
• Truist 2025 Industrials & Services Conference, 5/7-5/9, in Philadelphia, PA
• China PPI, CPI for April

• Reuters reported India had offered to slash its tariff Gap with the U.S. to less than 4% from nearly 13% now, in exchange for an exemption from Trump’s tariffs, according to sources. The United States is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade totaling some $129B in 2024. The trade balance is currently in favor of India, which runs a $45.7B surplus with the U.S. – Reuters

• Expedia (EXPE) Q1 adj EPS $0.40 vs est. $0.32, adj EBITDA $296Mm vs est. $269.8Mm on gross bookings $31.451B, revs $2.988B vs est. $3.015B; cuts FY25 gross bookings growth view to 2%-4% from 4%-6%.
• Lyft Inc. (LYFT) Q1 adj EBITDA $106.5Mm vs est. $92.4Mm on gross bookings $4.16B vs est. $4.15B, revs $1.45B, vs est. $1.47B, rides +16% yr/yr; sees Q2 rides +mid-teens, gr bookings $4.41-4.57B and adj EBITDA $115-130Mm vs est. $123.15Mm.
• RealReal (REAL) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.08), in-line with consensus and revs $160.03M vs. est. $159.81M; sees Q2 revenue $157M-$161M (est. $159.67M), sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA $3M-$4M and sees Q2 GMV $476M-$486M, while backs year rev and Ebitda outlook.
• Sweetgreen (SG) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.21) vs. est. loss (-$0.17); Q1 revs $166.3M vs. est. $164.9M; Q1 Same-Store Sales change of (3.1%), versus Same-Store Sales change of 5.0% in the prior year period. AUV of $2.9 million was consistent with the prior year period; sees FY25 revenue $740M-$760M vs. est. $763.7M.
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Q1 EPS $1.70 vs. est. $1.76 on in-line revs $1.448B, while Q1 comparable restaurant sales increased 3.5% at company restaurants; implemented menu price increase of about 1.4% in early April; sees commodity cost inflation of about 4%, including estimated impact of tariffs, for 2025.

• Rocket labs (RKLB) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.12) vs. est. loss (-$0.09); Q1 revs $122.57M vs. est. $121.37M; remain confident in our ability to execute and deliver on what’s set to be another strong quarter, with our Q2 2025 revenue guidance in the $130M-$140M vs. est. $137.5M; announced it will launch its new medium-lift reusable rocket Neutron for the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory for a Rocket Cargo mission that supports point-to-point cargo transportation.
• Idacorp (IDA) 4.505M share Spot Secondary priced at $111.00.
• One Gas (OGS) 2.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $79.00.
• Oklo (OKLO) files to sell 1.1M shares of Class A common stock for holders.

• CleanSpark (CLSK) Q2 adj EBITDA ($57.8)Mm vs est. $75.68Mm on revs $181.7Mm vs est. $192.38Mm.
• Cohen & Steers (CNS) preliminary assets under management of $87.5B as of April 30, 2025, a decrease of $70M from assets under management of $87.6B at March 31, 2025. The decrease was due to distributions of $151M and market depreciation of $60M, partially offset by net inflows of $141M.
• CoinDesk (COIN) Q1 revs $2.034B vs. est. $2.12B; files for mixed shelf offering; Q1 adj EPS $1.94 vs. est. $2.09; sees Q2 subscription and services revenue $600M-$680M; expect Q2 transaction expenses to be in the mid-teens as a percentage of net revenue.
• LPL Financial (LPLA) Q1 adj EPS $5.15 vs est. $4.67 on revs $3.67B vs est. $3.273B.
• Marathon Digital (MARA) Q1 EPS ($1.55) vs $1.26 last year and revs $213.9M vs. est. $217.59M.
• Toast Inc. (TOST) Q1 EPS $0.09 vs est. $0.09 on revs $1.34B vs est. $1.344B; guides Q2 adj EBITDA $130-140Mm vs est. $129.63Mm and FY adj EBITDA $540-560Mm (was $510-530Mm) vs est. $529.3Mm.

• Illumina (ILMN) Q1 adj EPS $0.97 vs. est. $0.94; Q1 revs $1.04B vs. est. $1.04B; cuts FY25 adj EPS view to $4.20-$4.30 from $4.50 (vs. est. $4.46) and said expects FY25 Core Illumina revenue to decline between (1%) and (3%) on a constant currency basis y/y, down from low single digit growth previously; Revenue outside of the Greater China region expected to grow between 0% and 2% in 2025.
• Insulet (PODD) Q1 adj EPS $1.02 vs est. $0.80, adj EBITDA $133.9Mm vs est. $110.49Mm on revs $569Mm vs est. $543.4Mm; guides Q2 revs +23-26% vs est. +18.27%, sees FY revs +19-22% vs prior +16-20% and est. +18.24%, sees FY gr mgn approx 71% vs prior 70.5%, sees FY adj op mgn approx 16.5%, no change vs prior.
• Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.36) vs. est. loss (-$0.23); Q1 revs $49.32M vs. est. $82.37M; FY25 total product REV guidance revised to $250m-$300m; Q1 US Amtagvi sales was $43.6M, impacted by a reduction in capacity during annual scheduled maintenance at the iCTC.
• McKesson (MCK) Q4 adj EPS $10.12 vs est. $9.82 on revs $90.823B vs est. $94.297B; reaffirms long-term adj EPS growth 12-14%; guides FY adj EPS $36.75-37.55 vs est. $36.76.
• Natera Inc. (NTRA) Q1 EPS ($0.50) vs es.t ($0.64) on revs $501.8Mm vs est. $446.27Mm; guides FY revs $1.94-2.02B vs est. $1.921B, gr mgn approx 60-64%, SG&A $975Mm – $1.05B and R&D $550-590Mm, sees FY net cash inflow positive.
• TransMedics (TMDX) Q1 EPS $0.70 vs. est. $0.24; Q1 revs $143.5M vs. est. $123.39M; raising its full year 2025 revenue guidance to be in the range of $565M-$585M, which represents 30% growth at the midpoint compared to the company’s prior year revenue.
• Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) files for mixed shelf offerings of up to $300M-
• Tyra Biosciences Inc (TYRA) files for mixed shelf of up to $500M.

• Cloudflare (NET) Q1 adj EPS $0.16, in-line with consensus on revs rising 27% y/y to $479.1M vs. est. $469.7M; Sees Q2 revenue $500M-$501M, vs. consensus $502M and backs FY25 adj EPS and rev outlook.
• DoubleVerify (DV) Q1 adj EBITDA $44.7Mm vs est. $38.88Mm on revs $165.061Mm vs est. $152.99Mm; guides Q2 revs $169-173Mm vs est. $169.33Mm and adj EBITDA $48-52Mm vs est. $50.24Mm; sees FY revs approx +10% vs est. +9.6% and adj EBITDA mgn approx 32%.
• Dropbox (DBX) Q1 adj EPS $0.70 vs est. $0.62 on revs $624.7Mm vs est. $620.06Mm, adj EBIT mgn 41.7%; will provide guidance on call.
• HubSpot (HUBS) Q1 adj EPS $1.78 vs est. $1.76 on revs $714.137Mm vs est. $700.36Mm, adj EBIT mgn 14%; guides Q2 revs $738-740Mm vs est. $725.57Mm, adj op in $124-125Mm vs est. $125.89Mm and adj EPS $2.10-2.12 vs est. $2.13; sees FY revs $3.036-3.044B vs est. $2.993B, adj op income $558-562Mm vs est. $546.06Mm and adj EPS $9.29-9.37 vs est. $9.21.
• Microchip (MCHP) Q4 adj EPS $0.11 vs est. $0.11 on revs $970.5Mm vs est. $962.76Mm; guides Q1 revs $1.02-1.07B vs est. $987.62Mm and adj EPS $0.18-0.26 vs est. $0.16.
• Nvidia (NVDA) intends to release a downgraded version of its H20 AI chip for China within the next two months, following U.S. export restrictions on its original models – Reuters
• Onto Innovation (ONTO) Q1 adj EPS $1.51 vs est. $1.47 on revs $266.607Mm vs est. $266.3Mm, gr mgn 54%; guides Q2 revs $240-260Mm vs est. $269.1Mm and adj EPS $1.21-1.35 vs est. $1.50.
• Pinterest (PINS) Q1 adj EPS $0.23 vs. est. $0.26 and revs rose 16% y/y to $855M vs. est. $846.6M; Q1 global MAUs rose 10% y/y to 570M vs. est. 563.9M; sees Q2 revenue $960M to $980M, est. $963.7M; guides Q2 adj Ebitda $217M-$237M vs. est. $233.1M.
• RingCentral (RNG) Q1 adj EPS $1.00 vs. est. $0.96; Q1 revs rose 5% y/y to $612M vs. est. $610.68M; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $1.00-$1.04 on revs $614M-$620M vs. est. $1.02/$621.06M; guides FY25 Subscriptions rev growth range of 5% to 7% y/y, rev growth range of 4%-6% y/y and GAAP operating margin range of 4.5%-5.2%.
• Sensata (ST) Q1 adj EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.72; Q1 revs $911.255M vs. est. $881.32M; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $0.80-$0.86 vs. est. $0.78 and revs $910M-$940M vs. est. $908.21M.
• SoundHound (SOUN) Q1 adj EPS ($0.06) vs est. ($0.09), adj EBITDA ($22.2)Mm vs est. ($17.16)Mm; reaffirms FY revs guide $157-177Mm vs est. $166.17Mm.
• TKO Group Holdings (TKO) Q1 EPS $0.69 vs. est. $0.55; Q1 revs $1.27B vs. est. $1.07B; raises FY25 revenue view to $3.005B-$3.075B from prior $2.93B-$3B.
• Trade Desk (TTD) Q1 adj ESP $0.33 vs est. $0.254, adj EBITDA mgn 34% on revs $616Mm vs est. $575.4Mm; guides Q2 revs at least $682Mm vs est. $688.28Mm.
• Taiwan Semi (TSM) April revenue t$349.57 billion ($11.5 bln), +48.1% on year
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) downgraded at both Citigroup and JP Morgan after the company forecast 2026 revs $850M, below consensus of $958.7M after reporting Q3 revs of $185.4M, in-line with consensus; reported a net loss per share of 72 cents for the third quarter, compared with estimates of a loss of 82 cents a share.
• ChipMOS Technologies Inc (IMOS) revenue for month of April 2025 was nt$1,860.8M or US$58.2M