Early Look

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-68.00	0.20%	34,115
S&P 500	-8.25	0.21%	4,137
Nasdaq	-50.50	0.37%	13,296

 

 

U.S. futures are trending lower ahead of key inflation data at 8:30 AM (and tomorrow) in the form of consumer prices (with producer prices (PPI) data tomorrow), as investors still fearful of rising prices even though the Fed continues to call the recent spike “transitory” in nature. Volatility is starting to pick up as the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) rises to its highest levels in two-months around 23.75 as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average finished sharply lower on Tuesday, while the tech heavy Nasdaq rebounded as much as 300-points off the lows before ending slightly lower. Surging commodity prices (lumber, copper, corn, iron ore, soybeans) and labor shortages fed fears that despite reassurances from the U.S. Federal Reserve, near-term price spikes could translate into longer-term inflation. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -461 points to 28,147, the Shanghai Index gained 20 points to 3,462, and the Hang Seng Index rose 217 points to 28,231. In Europe, the German DAX is up around 50 points to 15,165, while the FTSE 100 is up over 50 points above the 7,000 level. Cyclical shares have climbed on expectations of a full economic reopening, helping push the S&P 500 and Dow to record highs late last week, but those gains could also be challenged in the new price environment. Oil prices rise this morning as the biggest U.S. pipeline remained closed following a cyberattack late last week.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -36.33 points, or 0.87%, to 4,152.10

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -473.66 points, or 1.36%, to 34,269.16

·     The Nasdaq Composite dipped -12.43 points, or 0.09%, to 13,389.43

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -5.71 points, or 0.26% to 2,206.99

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     7:00 AM ET         MBA Mortgage Applications Data

·     8:30 AM EST      Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM for April…est. 0.2%

·     8:30 AM EST      CPI Ex: Food & Energy MoM for April…est. 0.3%

·     8:30 AM EST      Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY for April…est. 3.6%

·     8:30 AM EST      CPI Ex: Food & Energy YoY for April…est. 2.3%

·     10:30 AM ET      Weekly DOE Inventory Data

·     1:00 PM EST       U.S. Treasury to sell $41B in 10-year notes

·     2:00 PM EST       Federal Budget for April…est. (-$220.0B)

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: APYX, CIR, DT, HOOK, LITE, MCFT, SOHO, UONEK, VERU, WEN, WWW

·     Earnings After the Close: ADMA, AMWL, APP, BIOPC, BLBD, BMBL, BOOT, CCAP, CYCC, DOX, EAR, EOLS, EYEN, FLXN, FOSL, FTEK, JACK, MEG, MNKD, MRKR, NVEE, ONEM, PLBY, POSH, RNWK, SFT, SONO, SSKN, VRM, WATT, WISH

 

Other Key Events:

·     Bank of America Healthcare Conference (virtual), 5/10-5/13

·     JMP Securities’ Insurance Week (virtual), 5/10-5/14

·     Goldman Sachs Industrials & Materials Conference (virtual), 5/11-5/13

·     Citigroup Global Energy & Utilities Conference (virtual), 5/11-5/12

·     American Society of Gene & Cell Therapy Annual Meeting (ASGCT), 5/11-5/14

·     Stat Health Tech Virtual Summit 2021, 5/11-5/12

·     Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Conference, 5/11-5/12

·     2021 Sohn Investment Virtual Conference 5/12/21

·     BTIG Spring Selling Season: A Look Inside the Residential Housing Ecosystem, 5/12

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.54	65.82
Brent	0.51	69.06
Gold	-2.75	1,834.75
EUR/USD	-0.0014	1.2134
JPY/USD	0.11	108.73
10-Year Note	-0.011	1.613%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     B&G Foods (BGS) Q1 adj EPS 52c vs. est. 55c; Q1 revs $505.1M vs. est. $526.37M; net sales guidance reaffirmed at a range of $2.05 bln to $2.10 bln and says expect base business net sales for q2 to trend much closer to our 2019 net sales than our 2020 net sales; names Casey Keller next president, CEO

·     Gap Stores (GPS) announces resumption of share buyback program, has $800M of announced $1B left, plans to buyback $200M during balance of 2021

·     Grocery Outlet (GO) 1Q EPS $0.19 vs. est. $0.22 on sales $752.5Mm vs. est. $757.6Mm, comps -8.2%; says 2Q-to-date comps -low-dbl-digits; says continues to expect to open 36-38 stores in FY21 with 1 closure

·     QuantumScape (QS) said it now expects cash spend on operations and capex for the full year to be between $260M and $320M to support development activities and the higher capacity QS-0 line; expects to enter 2022 with greater than $1.3B in liquidity, reflecting a net increase of more than $300M compared to our liquidity entering the year.

 

Energy, Industrials & Materials

·     The American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a draw of 2.53M barrels of oil for the week ended May 7, showed a build of 5.64M barrels, distillate inventories show a draw of 872K barrels and Cushing inventories show a draw of 1.21M barrels.

·     Array Technologies (ARRY) mixed Q1 results and said it is not able to affirm previously provided guidance for the full year given the continuing increases they are seeing in steel and freight costs as well as ongoing review of open contracts to assess what costs we will pass on to customers

·     CVR Energy (CVI) said it will focus on renewable fuels and is no longer interested in acquiring another crude oil refinery unveils plans to spend as much as $10M to advance its renewable diesel initiatives; board has approved a $492M special dividend, to be payable in a combination of cash and shares of Delek US Holdings (DK)

·     Daqo New Energy (DQ) announced that its subsidiary Xinjiang Daqo New Energy had signed long-term high-purity polysilicon supply agreements with a subsidiary of JA Solar

·     Textainer Group (TGH) Q1 adj EPS $1.16 vs. est. 91c; Q1 revs $169.24M vs. est. $182.88M;

 

Financials

·     Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM) reported AUM of $168.9B as of Apr.30 compared to $162.9B in March

·     Franklin Resources (BEN) reports preliminary AUM $1.529T as of April 30 compared to $1.498T at March 31

·     Hackett Group (HCKT) Q1 EPS 27c vs. est. 25c; Q1 revs $63.4M vs. est. $62.17M; sees EPS 28c-30c vs. est. 25c; sees Q2 revenue $64.5M-$66.5M vs. est. $64.09M

·     Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Q4 adj EPS $1.51 vs. est. $1.14; Q4 revs $501M up 65% vs. est. $370.3M; raises quarterly dividend by 30% to $0.43

·     Intuit (INTU) lowers its Q3 adj EPS view to $6.00-$6.05 from $6.75-$6.85 (est. $6.73) – to reflect shift for filing deadline extension and issues lower Q3 revs $4.165B-$4.17B vs. est. $4.59B; said expect to exceed the top end of our guidance for the full year.”

·     Invesco (IVZ) reports preliminary AUM $1.459T as of April 30, an increase of 3.9% versus previous month-end. Total net inflows were $13.1B; firm achieved net long-term inflows of $7.2B this month

·     Lemonade Inc. (LMND) Q1 GAAP loss per share of (81c) missed the loss of (78c) estimate; in force premium at March 31, 2021 rose to $252M from $213.0M at Dec. 31, 2020 and increased 89% Y/Y. Customer count rose by 50% to almost 1.10M vs. Q1 2020; premium per customer was $229 at the end of Q1 2021, up 25% Y/Y; Q1 revs $23.5M beat $21.9M est.

·     Open Lending (LPRO) Q1 EPS 10c vs. est. 14c; on revs $44M vs. est. $40.9M; reaffirms previously issued 2021 revs and adj Ebitda guidance

·     SelectQuote (SLQT) 3Q EPS $0.22 vs. est. $0.24 on revs $266.9Mm vs. est. $261.1Mm; guides FY revs $920-940Mm vs. est. $934.9Mm, sees FY adj EBITDA $225-235Mm vs. est. $237.4Mm

·     Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS) reported AUM of $176.2B as of Apr.20 (compared to $168.9B as of Mar.31, 2021); the company provided services to $3.8B of other fee-earning assets that are not included in AUM.

 

Healthcare

·     InflaRx (IFRX) announces positive topline results for Vilobelimab from the U.S. phase ii anca-associated vasculitis ixplore study U.S ixplore phase ii trial achieved its objective; Vilobelimab was shown to be safe and well tolerated in patients with anca-associated vasculitis when added to current standard of care

·     Inari Medical (NARI) 1Q EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.05 on revs $57.4Mm vs. est. $55.1Mm; guides FY revs $240-250Mm vs. est. $234.1Mm

·     Prothena Corp. (PRTA) Q1 EPS loss (91c) vs. est. loss (54c); as of March 31, Prothena had $345.7M in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash and no debt

·     Xenon Pharma (XENE) 1Q EPS ($0.42) vs. est. ($0.43) on revs $4.4Mm vs. est. $3Mm, says topline data from xen1101 phase 2b “x-tole” clinical trial anticipated by end of q3 of 2021

 

Media & Telecom

·     Electronic Arts (EA) 4Q adj EPS $1.23 vs. est. $1.05 on revs $1.35B vs. est. $1.39B, qtrly net bookings $1.49B; guides 1Q net revs about $1.48B vs. est. $1.16B, sees 1Q net booking about $1.25B; guides FY net revs about $6.8B vs. est. $6.6B and net bookings about $7.3B

·     FuboTV Inc. (FUBO) shares jump 20%; Q1 EPS loss (59c) vs. est. (46c); Q1 revs $119.7M vs. est. $103.6M; average revenue per user per month increased 28% YoY to $69.09 in qtr; increasing guidance for full year 2021 revenue to $520-530 million; increasing end-of-year subscribers’ guidance to 830,000-850,000 – end-of-year subscriber outlook implies FY 2021 net additions of at least 282,000, 22% higher than full year 2020 net additions of 232,000

 

Technology

·     BigCommerce Holdings (BIGC) 1Q adj EPS ($0.04) vs. est. ($0.11) on revs $46.7Mm vs. est. $42.2Mm; guides 2Q revs $46.4-46.9Mm vs. est. $45.7Mm; sees FY revs $196.7-198.2Mm vs. est. $190.7Mm

·     CuriosityStream Inc. (CURI) 1Q EPS ($0.39) vs. est. ($0.20) on revs $9.9Mm vs. est. $10.6Mm, subs +28% to about 16Mm; guides FY revs at least $71Mm vs. est. $71.1Mm

·     Jamf Holdings (JAMF) announces intent to acquire Wandera, furthering its leadership in apple enterprise management; Q1 EPS Non-Gaap EPS 8c vs. est. 5c; Q1 revs $81.2M vs. est. $76.7M; sees Q2 revs $82M-$84M vs. est. $79.1M; sees 2021 revs $335M-$341M vs. est. $333.8M;

·     SEMrush Holding (SEMR) 1Q EPS $0.01 vs. est. ($0.04) on revs $40Mm vs. est. $37.6Mm; guides 2Q revs $42.2-42.7Mm vs. est. $39.8Mm; guides FY revs $175-177Mm vs. est. $166Mm

·     ShotSpotter Inc. (SSTI) 1Q EPS $0.01 vs. est. $0.00 on revs $15Mm vs. est. $13.3Mm; guides FY revs $60-61Mm vs. est. $59.1Mm, expects to remain GAAP profitable for FY

·     Unity Software (U) Q1 non-Gaap EPS loss (10c) vs. est. loss (12c); Q1 revs $234.8M vs. est. $216.6M; says raises 2021 rev outlook to $1B; sees Q2 revs $240M-$245M vs. est. $231.57M; sees Q2 adjusted operating margin (12%)-(17%)

·     Upstart (UPST) Q1 adj EPS 22c vs. est. 15c; Q1 revs $121M vs. est. $116.06M; sees Q2 revs $150M-$160M vs. est. $117.13M; sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA $23M-$27M; sees year revs about $600M (est. $503.1M)

·     Wix.com (WIX) Q1 EPS loss (54c) vs. est. loss (66c); Q1 revs $304.11M vs. est. $295.24M; creative subscriptions ARR as of the end of Q1 was $926.1M, up 25% YoY; total collections in Q1 were $351.1M, up 41% YoY; sees Q2 revs $308M-$312M vs. est. $312.26M; raises the low end of FY21 revenue view to $1.28B-$1.29B from $1.27B-$1.29B

·     U.S. has agreed not to put Xiaomi (XIACF) on a blacklist blocking investment in the Chinese tech company, undoing a move made in the last week of the Trump administration

·     Vizio (VZIO) Q1 EPS 2c vs. est. loss (10c); Q1 revs $505.7M vs. est. $484.07M; said Q1 average Revenue Per User increased 76% year over year to $14.52. SmartCast Hours grew 70% year over year to 3.6B