Early Look

Monday, May 12, 2025

U.S. futures jumped overnight, surging on reports the U.S. and China ended this weekend’s high-stakes trade talks in Switzerland on a positive note, with U.S. officials touting a “deal” to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, while Chinese officials said the sides had reached “important consensus” and agreed to launch another new economic dialogue forum. Details of the deal have emerger this morning, showing both parties have agreed to slash tariffs for 90 days. The U.S. will lower tariffs to 30% during the pause, while China will cut its tariffs to 10%, Bessent said following a weekend of high-level talks in Switzerland (both sides agreed to a 115% cut, though the U.S. rate was higher to begin with). Treasury Secretary Bessent touted Sunday that “substantial progress” had been made between the two countries after lengthy talks held this weekend in Geneva. Given the positive trade news, stock futures soar as S&P 500 futures (Spuz) jump +3% or 160 points to 5,850 and Nasdaq surges 3.9% or 790 points to 20,930. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) tumbles over 8.8% and drops back below the 20 level. WTI Crude traded 3% higher at $62.88 a barrel and Brent for July was $65.66 a barrel on the truce talks while haven-assets tumbled with the dollar surging and gold falling over 3%. Not all stocks are surging as drug companies (PFE, LLY, MRK, GILD, ABBV) are trading lower after President Trump said on Truth Social, he will sign executive order to cut prescription drug prices by 30% to 80% — he says to match other countries. After trade talks this weekend, and more clarity for the time being, attention will turn back to economic data this week with both the producer (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) inflation reports later this week. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gains 140 points to 37,644, the Shanghai Index gained 27 points to 3,369, and the Hang Seng Index surges 681 points or nearly 3% to 23,549. In Europe, the German DAX is up 208 points to 23,707, while the FTSE 100 rises 28 points to 8,583.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -119.07 points, or 0.29%, to 41,249.38
• The Nasdaq Composite was little changed, or 0.00%, to 17,928.92
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -3.34 points, or 0.16% to 2,023.07

• 2:00 PM ET                   Federal Budget for April

• Earnings After the Close: ACHC ACHR AMPR APEI AQST ARCT ARWR ASTS BCO BLNK CMPO CNNE DDD DVA FTEK GAIA GCT GETY GPRO HPX HTZ IAS IHRT INDI LAND MLNK MODG MRVI MX NFE NGS OPRX PNNT POWI QRHC RGNX RGTI RICK RPAY RPD SARO SMR SPG STXS TPIC VTLE VUZI WHF XTNT ZI

• Needham 20th Annual Technology, Media, & Consumer 1×1 Conference, 5/8-5/13, in NY

• The US and Iran will continue talks over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, after discussions on Sunday that were described as encouraging by Washington and “difficult but useful” by Tehran – Bloomberg.
• Interesting Stats: U.S. corporate stock buybacks in April 2025, which reached $233.8 billion, marking the second-highest monthly total since records began in 1984, according to data from Birinyi Associates. This figure is just shy of the all-time record of $242.7 billion set in April 2022. This is a sharp reversal from the $39.1 billion announced in March, the least since October 2020.

• Tesla (TSLA) shares surge on reports Russell Vought is taking over DOGE once Elon Musk steps aside, according to the Wall Street Journal. Vought is currently the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.

• Canadian miner Pan American Silver (PAAS) will acquire MAG Silver Corp (MAG) in a transaction valued at approximately $2.1 billion, the companies said on Sunday.
• Redwire Corp. (RDW) Q1 EPS (9c) vs. (17c) last year and reports Q1 revenue $61.4M vs. $87.8 last year; guides FY25 revenue $535M-$605M, vs. consensus $431.11M saying assumes the previously announced transaction with Edge Autonomy had been consummated on January 1; sees Y25 Adjusted EBITDA4 $70M-$105M.
• Metals prices rose overnight (copper, gold, aluminum) on reports that U.S.-China trade talks this weekend went well, easing global recession fears, although details of any potential deals remain unclear.
• Saudi Aramco reported a decline in profit in the first quarter as lower crude prices put pressure on the finances of the world’s biggest oil exporter. Net income slipped 4.6% to 97.5 billion riyals ($26 billion) in the quarter, according to a statement Sunday.

• Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) announced positive interim data from its Phase 1b trial of APG808, a novel half-life extended IL-4Ralpha antibody, in patients with mild-to-moderate asthma
• CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX) announced positive interim Phase 1 data for its EpCAM PROBODY ADC candidate, CX-2051, in advanced, late-line CRC; follows Q1 results.

• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) will pay the state of Texas $1.375 billion to resolve two privacy lawsuits claiming the tech giant tracks Texans’ personal location and maintains their facial recognition data without their consent.
• The U.S. federal human resources agency at the heart of billionaire Trump adviser Elon Musk’s efforts to slash the federal workforce on Friday canceled a contract it had awarded to Workday (WDAY) and which had excluded other bidders.