Early Look

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

U.S. futures are down slightly after surging/closing at the highs Monday following a day of positive trade headlines with rival China, but attention this morning turns to inflation with the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly data on tap at 8:30 am. Estimates for Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline, M/M for April to rise +0.3% (vs. prior -0.1%) and on a Y/Y basis to rise +2.4% (same as prior), while the core CPI for April (ex: food & energy), M/M for April est. +0.3% (prior +0.1%) and Y/Y to rise +2.8% (same as prior) – the PPI data expected later in the week. Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 2.8%, the SPX jumped more than 3%, and the Nasdaq surged more than 4% after the U.S. said the tariff reductions for China would be in effect for 90 days while talks proceed.

A White House executive order announced late Monday that the US will cut the “de minimis” tariff on China shipments to 54% from 120%, with a $100 flat fee starting May 14. This comes as the US and China agree to pause most tariffs for 90 days, marking a significant de-escalation in their trade conflict. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday both nations pledged to cut tariffs after weekend talks. US tariffs drop to 30% from 145%, and China’s to 10% from 125%, per a joint statement. That news sent stocks surging on Monday, as the S&P 500 index hit its highest level since early March along with Nasdaq as the trade news eased trade tension fears.

Nearly all S&P 500 sectors ended green Monday with consumer discretionary (XLY) and technology (XLY) posting the biggest jumps. Under the surface, transportation stocks and semiconductor chips were especially strong with both surging around 7%. The CBOE market volatility index (VIX) fell below 19, posting its lowest close since March 25. Stock market strength since the April low has been astounding as the S&P 500 has closed more than 20% above its April low, technically beginning a new bull market and now up +1,000 points in one month. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 539 points to 38,183, the Shanghai Index rose 5 points to 3,374, and the Hang Seng Index falls -441 points to 23,108. In Europe, the German DAX is up 35 points to 23,602, while the FTSE 100 rises 10 points to 8,616.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,160.72 points, or 2.81%, to 42,410.10
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 779.43 points, or 4.35%, to 18,708.34
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 69.12 points, or 3.42% to 2,092.20

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline, M/M for April…est. +0.3% (prior -0.1%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline, Y/Y for April…est. +2.4% (same as prior)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core (ex: food & energy), M/M for April…est. +0.3% (prior +0.1%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core (ex: food & energy), Y/Y for April…est. +2.8% (same as prior)
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for April…prior +0.3%
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AIP AKA BEAT CAE CAPR CINT CLPT EPM ETON EXEL GAIN GEVO GRAL IMOS IZEA KLCKRMN LXRX MGNX NU OKLO PRTS PXLW RWAY SND SSTI VXRT WALD

• Deutsche Bank Global Solar & Clean Tech Conference, 5/15 (virtual)
• Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum, 5/13 in New York
• Goldman Sachs European Consumer Staples and Retail Conference, 5/13-5/14, in London
• JP Morgan Technology, Media, and Communications Conference, 5/13-5/15 in Boston, MA
• Needham 20th Annual Technology, Media, & Consumer 1×1 Conference, 5/8-5/13, in NY

• April NFIB small business optimism index 95.8, consensus 94.7
• Russia was responsible for shooting down a Malaysian Airlines flight over Ukraine in 2014 that killed all 298 people on board, the United Nations aviation agency has ruled. Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was struck by a Russian-made missile while flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur as Russian separatists battled Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region below – NY Post

• Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD) announced the sale of 5.5M shares of its Class A ordinary shares by an entity affiliated with Oran Holtzman, Oddity co-founder and CEO.
• Topgolf Calloway (GOLF) Q1 EPS $0.01 vs est. ($0.06), adj EBITDA $167.3Mm vs est. $129.3Mm on revs $1.092B vs est. $1.067B; says maintaining prior consolidated FY revs and adj EBITDA guidance.

• Archer Aviation (ACHR) partners with Palantir (PLTR) to develop AI for Next-Gen Aviation Technologies; reports Q1 adj Ebitda -$109M and net income -$93.4M; guides Q2 adj Ebitda to be a loss of (-$100M-$120M); highlighting on-track UAE launch & new “launch edition” customers.
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Q1 revs $718K from $500K y/y and vs. est. $4.2M; Q1 pretax profit (-$63.46M); Q1 expenses rose to $44.9M, up $4.1M q/q; said announced multi-provider satellite orbital launch plan with five contracted launches over the next six to nine months.
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital and cut tgt to $39 from $46, following the release of the House Ways and Means Committee tax plan. The plan, if adopted, will eliminate the Section 25D Residential Clean Energy Credit for homeowners who take loans or pay cash for their residential solar and battery systems at the end of 2025.
• NuScale Power (SMR) Q1 revs rose by $12.0M to $13.4M for the three months ending March 31, 2025, compared to $1.4M for the three months ended March 31, 2024; Q1 Operating expense decreased by $2.3M to $42.3M; ended the first quarter with cash/equivalents, and short-term investments of $521.4M.
• Plug Power (PLUG) Q1 EPS ($0.21) vs est. ($0.19) on revs $133.7Mm vs est. $132.2Mm; guides Q2 revs $140-180Mm vs est. $159.11Mm.
• StandardAero (SARO) Q1 adj EBITDA $198.2Mm vs est. $181.31Mm on revs $1.436B vs est. $1.34B; guides FY revs $5.825-5.975B vs prior $5.8-5.95B and est. $5.891B, adj EBITDA $775-795Mm vs prior $770-790Mm and est. $782.99Mm.
• Vital Energy (VTLE) Q1 adj EPS $2.37 vs est. $2.12; sees Q2 total production 133.0-139.0 MBOE/D; reiterated FY outlook.

• AllianceBernstein L.P. (AB) preliminary assets under management decreased to $781 billion during April 2025 from $785 billion at the end of March. The 0.5% decline in AUM was primarily driven by firmwide net outflows, mainly within the institutional and retail channels, with private wealth also experiencing slight outflows.
• Amazon (AMZN) has reached a deal with FedEx (FDX) to fill the gaps left by ending its partnership with UPS (UPS), according to Business Insider.
• Cannae Holdings (CNNE) has entered into an agreement to acquire an additional 30% stake in JANA, and post-closing will have total ownership of 50%; Q1 adj EBITDA $211Mm vs est. ($21.4Mm) on revs $580Mm vs. est. $105.3Mm.
• Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) will replace Discover Financial Services (DFS) in the S&P 500 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, May 19. S&P 500 constituent Capital One Financial Corp. COF) is acquiring Discover Financial Services in a deal expected to be completed soon, pending final closing condition
• CompoSecure (CMPO) Q1 adj EPS $0.25 vs est. $0.19, adj EBITDA $33.7Mm vs. est. $31.5Mm on revs $59.8Mm vs est. $103.2Mm; reiterates previously issued FY guidance.
• Simon Property Group (SPG) Q1 FFO/SHR $2.95 vs est. $2.90 on revs $1.473B vs est. $1.36B; sees FY FFO/SHR $12.40-12.65 vs est. $12.56.
• Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. (VRTS) reported preliminary assets under management (AUM) of $163.7 billion and other fee earning assets of $2.1 billion for total client assets of $165.8 billion as of April 30, 2025.

• Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR) Q2 EPS $2.75 vs est. ($0.20) on revs $42.709Mm vs est. $29.91Mm; says Ken Myszkowski to retire as CFO, Daniel Apel to succeed.
• Biohaven (BHVN) Q1 adj EP($1.64) vs est. ($1.69) on op exp $221.561Mm.
• DaVita (DVA) Q1 adj EPS $2.00 vs. est. $2.02; Q1 revs $3.2B vs. est. $3.21B; backs FY25 adjusted EPS view $10.20-$11.30 (est. $11.03) and backs 2025 free cash flow $1.0B-$1.25B.
• UnitedHealth Group (UNH) announced the appointment of Stephen J. Hemsley as its chief executive officer (CEO), effective immediately, following Andrew Witty’s decision to step down as CEO for personal reasons. Hemsley joined UnitedHealth Group as chief operating officer in 1997 and became president in 1999. He became Board chair in 2017. Additionally, the company suspended its 2025 outlook.

• Integral Ad Science (IAS) Q1 EPS $0.05 vs. est. $0.14; Q1 revs $134.1M vs. est. $129.33M; Q1 adj Ebitda $41.5M vs. est. $39M; sees Q2 revenue $142M-$144M vs est. $143.31M and sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA $45M-$47M; narrows FY25 revenue view to $590M-$600M from $588M-$600M and narrows FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $204M-$210M from $202M-$210M.
• iHeart Radio (IHRT) Q1 adj EBITDA $105Mm vs est. $105.8Mm on revs $807Mm vs est. $787.4Mm; sees Q2 adj EBITDA $140-160Mm vs est. $171.83Mm; notes Q2 consolidated revenue expected to decline low-single digits.
• Power Integrations (POWI) announces a new $50M share-repurchase authorization following completion of prior $50M buyback; Q1 adj EPS $0.31 vs est. $0.28 on revs $105.529Mm vs est. $105.37Mm, guides Q2 revs $110-120Mm vs est. $114.58Mm, adj gr mgn approx 55.5%, adj op exp approx $46Mm.
• Rapid7 Inc. (RPD) Q1 adj EPS $0.49 vs est. $0.35, adj EBITDA $38.898Mm vs est. $29.25Mm on revs $210.3Mm vs est. $208.23Mm, adj op mgn 15%; guides Q2 revs $211-213Mm vs est. $213.48Mm, adj op Inc $30-32Mm vs est. $24.03Mm and adj EPS $0.43-0.46 vs est. $0.42.
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Q1 op Inc -$21.6M vs est. -$16.4Mm on revs $1.5Mm vs est. $2.551Mm.
• Sea Limited (SE) Q1 revenues rose 29.6% y/y to $4.84B vs. est. $4.89B; Sea’s e-commerce segment, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the company’s total business, reported a 28.3% jump in revenue in Q1.
• ZoomInfo (ZI) Q1 EPS $0.23 vs. est. $0.22; Q1 revs fell -1% y/y to $305.7M vs. est. $295.5M; raises FY25 EPS view to $0.96-$0.98 from prior view $0.95-$0.97 9est. $0.95) and narrows FY25 revenue view to $1.195B-$1.205B from $1.185B-$1.205B (est. $1.19B).
• The U.S. hopes to strike deals on minerals, chips during Trump’s Mideast trip, the Washington Post reported. The export of vast quantities of AI chips is under negotiation, along with the approval of a new Saudi mining company that would send critical minerals to the U.S