Morning Preview: May 15, 2024

Early Look

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	29.00	0.07%	39,706
S&P 500	2.25	0.05%	5,272
Nasdaq	-5.50	0.03%	18,409

U.S. futures are flat after rising on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 within a few points of their respective all-time intraday highs and the Dow has moved to within 500-points of the 40K level, with investors showing no concern ahead of today’s highly anticipated consumer price index (CPI) inflation reading at 8:30 AM. S&P futures (Spuz) trade in an 11-point range overnight at highs 5,277.50 while the 10-year yield dips to below 4.42% and gold futures edge higher +0.67% to $2,375 an ounce. Markets clearly expecting a “tamer” CPI report for April after three straight months of prices slightly re-accelerating. It has been a massive rally since stock prices declined in April, with the “SPY” rising for a 9^th straight day on Tuesday and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) advancing for the 8^th time in 9-days in what has been an incredible run for stocks this year. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 29 points to 38,385, the Shanghai Index fell -25 points to 3,119, and the Hang Seng Index dipped -41 points to 19,073. In Europe, the German DAX is up 87 points to 18,804, while the FTSE 100 gains 24 points to 8,452. All eyes on the CPI and retail sales data set for 8:30 AM release in a busy day of U.S. economic data then could potentially shape the interest rate outlook of the Fed for the remainder of the year…no pressure!

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

The S&P 500 Index climbed 25.26 points, or 0.48%, to 5,246.68.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 126.60 points, or 0.32%, to 39,558.11.
The Nasdaq Composite gained 122.94 points, or 0.75%, to 16,511,18.
The Russell 2000 Index advanced 23.57 points, or 1.14% to 2,085.69.

Economic Calendar for Today

7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data

8:30 AM ET Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M for April…est. +0.4% (prior +0.4%)
8:30 AM ET Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y for April…est. +3.4% (prior +3.5%)
8:30 AM ET CPI Core (ex: food and energy) M/M for April…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
8:30 AM ET CPI Core (ex: food and energy) Y/Y for April…est. +3.6% (prior +3.8%)
8:30 AM ET Empire Fed Manufacturing for May…est. (-10.0) vs. prior (-14.3)
8:30 AM ET Retail Sales M/M for April…est. +0.4% (prior +0.7%)
8:30 AM ET Retail Sale – Less Autos M/M for April…est. +0.2% (prior +1.1%)
10:00 AM ET Business Inventories M/M for March…est. (-0.1%)
10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for May…est. 51
10:30 AM ET Weekly DOE Inventory Data
11:00 AM ET Cleveland Fed CPI for April
12:00 PM ET Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Fireside Chat
4:00 PM ET Net Long term TIC Flows for March

Earnings Calendar:

Earnings Before the Open: AWH CATX CPA DRIO DT EWCZ ICAD KPLT ONDS SPRO VERO WYY XXII

Earnings After the Close: AVGR BTBT CSCO HWKN IPWR IZEA KNW MOVE RILY SPIR SSKN TRAK USIO XOS XTNT

Other Key Events:

Goldman Sachs European Consumer Staples and Retail Forum, 5/15-5/16, in London

Needham 19th Annual Technology, Media & Consumer Conference, 5/14-5/16 in New York
RBC Capital Global Healthcare Conference, 5/14-5/15, in New York
RBC Capital Canadian Industrials Conference, 5/14-5/16, in Toronto

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.03	78.05
Brent	0.04	82.42
Gold	15.50	2,375.40
EUR/USD	0.0007	1.0825
JPY/USD	-0.60	155.83
10-Year Note	-0.025	4.42%

World News

A U.S. move to raise tariffs on Chinese goods is a sign of weakness, not of strength, and shows that some in the United States May be "losing their minds", China’s foreign minister said on Wednesday. The comments come after President Joe Biden is raising tariffs on Chinese imports, including items ranging from electric vehicles to solar panels, as the White House $18B of Chinese goods would be hit by the increases.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

Boot Barn (BOOT) Q4 EPS $0.96 versus estimate $0.88, comps -5.9%, revenues $388.5M versus estimate $358.68M; Sees Q1 sales $399M to $407M versus estimate $398.23M and EPS $0.94 to $1.00 versus estimate $1.09; guides FY25 sales $1.766B to $1.8B versus estimate $1.824B and EPS $4.55 to $4.85 versus estimate $5.16.

General Mills (GIS) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein, raising tgt to $70 from $62 and Campbell Soup (CPB) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein in the food sector.
Kenvue Inc (KVUE) prices secondary offering of 182.3M shares of common stock at a public offering price of $20.00.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) selling stockholders agreed to sell 12M shares of Co’s Class A common stock in unregistered secondary block trade.

Nextracker (NXT) Q4 adjusted EPS $0.96 versus estimate $0.78 on revenues $736.515M versus estimate $681.93M, Adjusted EBITDA $160M versus estimate $132.04M; Guides FY25 revenues $2.8B to $2.9B versus estimate $2.89B , adjusted EBITDA $600M to $650M versus estimate $601.61M and adjusted EPS $2.89 to $3.09 versus estimate $3.15.
Origin Materials (ORGN) Q1 EPS -10 cents versus estimate -10 cents on revenues $6.8M versus estimate $6.48M, adjusted EBITDA -$12.9M versus -$26.1M; Guides FY24 revenues $25M to $35M versus estimate $31.64M, sees net cash burn between $55M and $65M.
SunPower (SPWR) downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research.
Copper miners rose premarket, tracking prices of metal which hit a two-year high up 2.1% at $10,320 per metric ton, lifting shares of Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Group (BHP), Southern Copper (SCCO) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX).

Financials

Discover Financial Services (DFS) credit card charge-off rate 2.35% at April end vs 2.48% at March end; and credit card delinquency rate 1.68% at April end vs 1.70% at March end.

Hut 8 Corp (HUT) 9,102 self-mined bitcoin on balance sheet as of March 31, 2024; expect to begin generating revenue in second half of year at a forecasted annual rate of approximately $20M; in Q1, we launched a comprehensive restructuring program.
Nu Holdings (NU) Q1 revenue $2.7B vs. est. $2.49B; added 5.5M customers in 1Q, reaching total of 99.3M globally by March 31, compared to 59.6 million only two years ago; Monthly Average Revenue per Active Customer (ARPAC) grew to $11.4 in Q1’24, a 30% expansion YoY.

Healthcare

Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Q1 EPS ($0.32) versus estimate ($0.73) on revenues $21.569M versus estimate $14.68M.

Merck KGaA reported better-than-expected adjusted Q1 earnings, helped by strong demand for its pharmaceuticals; reported 8.4% lower first-quarter EBITDA, adjusted for one-offs, at 1.45 billion euros ($1.57 billion).

Technology, Media & Telecom

Dynatrace (DT) Q1 non-GAAP EPS $0.30 vs. est. $0.27; Q4 revs $381M vs. est. $375.28M; announces $500M share repurchase program; forecasts Q1 2025 total revenue $391M – $393M.

Infineron (INFN) Q1 adjusted EPS -17 cents versus estimate -13 cents on revenues $306.9M versus estimate $337M, adjusted gross margin 36.6%; sees Q2 revenues $310M to $350M versus estimate $373.37M, adjusted gross margin 38% to 41% and adjusted EPS -13 cents to -5 cents versus estimate $0.00.
OptimizeRx (OPRX) Q1 adjusted EPS -11 cents versus estimate -13 cents, adjusted EBITDA -$0.3M versus estimate -$1.33M on revenues $19.7M versus estimate $18.13M, gross margin 62%; guides FY revs at least $100M versus estimate $79.76M, adjusted EBITDA at least $11M versus estimate $11.31M.
Sound Thinking (SSTI) Q1 EPS -23 cents versus estimate -8 cents on revenues $25.4M versus estimate $25.12M, adjusted EBITDA $3.044M versus estimate $4.35M; Guides FY revenues $104M to $106M versus estimate $104.84M.
Unity Software (U) announced that Marc Whitten will resign as the company’s Chief Product and Technology Officer, Create, effective as of June 1.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.

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