Early Look

Thursday, May 15, 2025

U.S. futures are looking lower, pulling back after strong gains the first 3-days of the week following a very busy night of news ahead of big earnings reports from retailers Wal-Mart (WMT) and Alibaba (BABA) later this morning. Cisco Systems (CSCO) shares rise on better earnings overnight, Dow component UNH falls again, down another -6% after the WSJ reported it is under criminal investigation for possible Medicare Fraud; oil prices tumbled after Trump said that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran; DE reported a top and bottom line beat for Q2 but cut the lower end of its rev outlook for the year, and in M&A news, DKS agreed to buy smaller rival Foot Locker (FL) for $24 per share in a deal valued at $2.4B.

Oil prices are lower by -3.5% or $2.25 to $60.90 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had “sort of” agreed to the terms. “We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace,” Trump said on a tour of the Gulf. Meanwhile, global oil demand growth will slow during the remainder of 2025 after a robust first quarter due to “economic headwinds,” the International Energy Agency said.

U.S. stocks were mixed on Wednesday as positive momentum from a U.S., China trade deal reached on the weekend faded after two strong days of stocks gains. A number of U.S. chip stocks/technology firms including NVDA, AMD also announced artificial intelligence deals in the Middle East as U.S. President Donald Trump secured $600 billion in commitments from Saudi Arabia to U.S. companies during a tour of Gulf states. Mag7 tech stocks did the heavy lifting on Wednesday with strong gains from TSLA, NVDA, GOOGL leading the Nasdaq higher.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on Thursday and investors will look for any clues on when the U.S. central bank is likely to resume interest rate cuts. Fed funds futures traders have pushed back expectations on the next cut to September, following a better-than-expected jobs report for April and due to the U.S., China trade deal. Producer price inflation and retail sales data are also due Thursday morning. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -372 points to 37,755, the Shanghai Index fell -23 points to 33,804, and the Hang Seng Index slipped -187 points to 23,453. In Europe, the German DAX is down -37 points to 23,489, while the FTSE 100 is up slightly at 8,588.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -89.37 points, or 0.21%, to 42,051.06
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 136.72 points, or 0.72%, to 19,146.81
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -18.54 points, or 0.88% to 2,083.80

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.89M (prior 1.879M)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Empire Fed Manufacturing for May…est. (-10.0) vs. prior reading (-8.1)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Survey for May…est. (-11.0) vs. prior (-26.4)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) headline, M/M for April…est. +0.2% prior (-0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) headline, Y/Y for April…est. +2.5% (prior +2.7%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core (ex: food & energy), M/M for April…est. +0.3% (prior -0.1%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core (ex: food & energy), Y/Y for April…est. +3.1% (prior +3.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales M/M for April…est. flat (vs. prior +1.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M for April…est. +0.3% (vs. prior +0.5%)
• 9:15 AM ET                  Industrial production M/M for April…est. +0.2% (vs. -0.3% prior)
• 9:15 AM ET                  Capacity utilization for April…est. 77.8% (same as prior)
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for May…est.
• 10:00 AM ET                Business Inventory M/M for March…est.
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AMAT CAVA DFLI DOCS GLOB IPW NGG QSI QUBT SOBO SPCE TTWO WYY ZENV

• JP Morgan Technology, Media, and Communications Conference, 5/13-5/15 in Boston, MA

• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Qatar will invest $10 billion in coming years in the Al Udeid Air Base southwest of the country’s capital Doha, the largest U.S. military facility in the Middle East.
• European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos cautioned that the recent trade turmoil could still upend the region’s financial system – Bloomberg.

• Alibaba (BABA) reported Q4 revs of 236.45 billion yuan ($32.79 billion), compared with analysts’ avg. estimate of 237.24 billion yuan; reports adjusted Q4 profit of 12.52 yuan per ADS, below estimates of 12.94 yuan.
• Boot Barn (BOOT) Q4 EPS $1.22 vs. est. $1.25; Q4 revs $453.7M vs. est. $458.4M; sees Q1 EPS $1.44-$1.52 vs. est. $1.46 and Q1 revenue $483M-$491M vs. est. $486.1M; Sees FY26 revenue $2.07B-$2.15B vs. est. $2.17B; sees FY26: comp sales declines of (-2.0%) to growth of approximately 2.0%; announces $200M buyback.
• Ibotta Inc. (IBTA) Q1 adj EPS $0.36 vs est. $0.01 on revs $84.6Mm vs est. $82.07Mm; sees Q2 revs $86.5-92.5Mm vs est. $89.15Mm.
• Jack in the Box (JACK) Q2 EPS $1.20 topped consensus $1.11 as revs $336.7M missed est. $342.32M; Q1 comp store sales fell (-4.4%), comprised of franchise same-store sales decline of (-4.5%) and company-owned same-store sales decline of (-4.0%); said price was higher versus prior year, while both transactions and mix were down compared to prior year. Systemwide sales for the Q2 decreased (-4.9%); maintains guidance.

• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Q2 EPS loss $34M compared with a profit of $12.4M a year ago; sees Q2 revs to be in range of $1.9B to $2.1B vs. est. $1.76B and for FY, sees total revs in range of $6.1B to $7.1B vs. est. $7.4B.
• Emirates is in talks with Musk’s SpaceX to get Starlink on flights – Bloomberg
• Lockheed Martin’s (LMT) shares rose after President Trump said the U.S. is examining possible development of twin-engine warplane to be known as F-55, as well as upgrade to its LMT-made F-22 Raptor called F-22 Super.
• New Fortress Energy (NFE) Q1 EPS ($0.73) vs est. ($0.06), adj EBITDA $82Mm vs est. $231.8Mm on revs $470.5Mm vs est. $620.51Mm.
• Nextracker Inc. (NXT) Q4 adj EPS $1.29 vs. est. $0.98; Q4 revs $924M vs. est. $828.11M; Q4 operating income $195.3M vs. est. $171.3M; sees FY26 adj EPS $3.65-$4.03 vs. est. $3.87 and sees FY26 revenue $3.2B-$3.4B, vs. consensus $3.17B; expands Solar Technology Platform with eBOS Portfolio.
• Spire Global (SPIR) said selected for U.S. Space Force contract with $237M ceiling; Q1 EPS ($0.77) vs est. ($0.67) on revs $23.876Mm vs est. $22.7Mm; sees Q2 revs $18-20Mm vs est. $22.97Mm and adj EPS ($0.42) – ($0.49) vs est. ($0.47); sees FY revs $85-95Mm and adj EPS ($1.80) – ($1.50) vs est. ($1.64).
• NASA awards launch service task order for Aspera’s galaxy mission to Rocket Lab USA (RKLB); maximum total contract value of $300M.

• Dlocal Ltd. (DLO) Q1 EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.12; Q1 revs rose 18% y/y to $216.8M vs. est. $210.8M; announced a first-quarter net profit of $46.63M, more than doubling from a year earlier; Q1 gross margin 39%; Q1 Total Payment Volume reached a record $8.1B, up 53% y/y.
• IREN Ltd. (IREN) Q3 revs $148.1M, up from $119.6M in Q2; posts 24% increase in Bitcoin mining revenue to $141.2M (from $113.5M in Q2); 33% increase in AI Cloud services revenue to $3.6M from $2.7M prior; 1,514 Bitcoin mined (1,347 Bitcoin in Q2 FY25), underpinned by growth in operating hashrate; Total net electricity costs increased 30% to $36.5M; posted record Q3 adj Ebitda $83.3M.
• Virtu Financial (VIRT) downgraded to Neutral at BofA following 75% advance.

• Biohaven (BHVN) shares fall after the FDA extended the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date for the company’s troriluzole application by three months as now expects an FDA decision in the fourth quarter. The FDA’s Division of Neurology 1 also informed the company that it plans to hold an advisory committee meeting, but no date has been scheduled. The FDA didn’t raise any new concerns in its letter.
• Merck (MRK) announces phase 3 KEYNOTE-B96 trial met primary endpoint of progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer whose tumors expressed PD-L1 and in all comers; the study also met secondary endpoint of overall survival (OS) for patients whose tumors express PD-L1.
• scPharmaceuticals (SCPH) Q1 EPS ($0.37) vs est. ($0.30) on revs $11.752Mm vs est. $11.63Mm; says autoinjector on track for SNDA submission in Q3’25.
• 10x genomics (TXG) announces patent litigation settlement agreement with Bruker (BRKR); expects Bruker to pay $68M in equal qtrly installments between Q3 o 2025 & Q2 2026.
• STERIS Plc (STE) Q4 EPS $2.74 vs. est. $2.59; Q4 adj net income $270.3M vs. est. $257.6M; sees FY organic growth 6%-7% and FCF $770M; revenue from continuing operations for fiscal 2025 increased 6% to $5.5B billion compared with $5.1 billion in fiscal 2024.

• CoreWeave (CRWV) Q1 EPS ($1.49) vs est. ($0.12), adj EBITDA $606.131Mm vs est. $617.06Mm on revs $981.632Mm; will provide guidance on call; said is looking to spend $20 billion to $23 billion this year on AI infrastructure and data center capacity; shares advanced initially but are down this morning
• DXC Technology (DXC) Q4 adj EPS $0.84 vs est. $0.77 on revs $3.169B vs est. $3.133B, adj EBIT mgn 7.3%; sees Q1 revs $3.04-3.09B vs est. $3.118B, adj EBIT mgn 6.0-7.0% and adj EPS $0.55-0.65 vs est. $0.77; sees FY revs $12.18-12.44B vs est. $12.414B, adj EBIT mgn 7.0-8.0% and adj EPS $2.75-3.25 vs est. $3.41.
• eGain Corp. (EGAN) Q3 adj EPS $0.03 vs est. $0.05 on revs $21.009Mm vs est. $21.24Mm; sees Q4 revs $22.8-23.3Mm vs est. $23.44Mm and adj EPS $0.06-0.08 vs est. $0.08; sees FY revs $88.0-88.5Mm vs est. $88.87Mm and adj EPS $0.18-0.20 vs est. $0.22.
• Klaviyo (KVYO) 11M share Secondary priced at $34.00.
• Rubrik (RBRK) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho but raise tgt to $86 from $75.