Early Look

Friday, May 23, 2025

U.S. S&P futures are looking little changed, to down slightly, coming into the day with a quiet 3-day losing streak after all three major U.S. stock indexes melted into the closing bell Thursday despite mega cap AI-related momentum stocks helping buoy the tech-heavy Nasdaq which finished modestly positive. The U.S. dollar extends weekly declines, -0.58% at 99.38 for the dollar index (DXY) on track for its lowest close since December 2023 amid concerns over the US fiscal outlook. Treasuries remained steady, with the 10-year yield at 4.53% and the 30-year yield holding above 5% after having reached 5.15% during Thursday’s session. Brent oil is flat, but down -2% on the week as OPEC+ weighs another production increase that could add supplies into a market already expected to face a glut. In terms of overnight earnings, the shares of INTU move higher after results, while the shares of DECK, ROST, WDAY decline following their results/guidance. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 174 points to 37,160 (for the week the Nikkei fell -1.57%, snapping a 5-week winning streak), the Shanghai Index fell -31 points to 3,343, and the Hang Seng Index rose 56 points to 23,601 (rises 1.1% on the week, extending its winning streak to 6). In Europe, the German DAX is up 45 points to 24,044, while the FTSE 100 is little changed at 8,741. U.S. stocks pared gains in the final minutes of trading on Thursday as investors balanced President Trump’s jumbo-sized tax and spending bill, against fairly solid economic data and easing Treasury yields. All three major indexes are currently on course to post weekly declines. Technology and Consumer Discretionary were yesterday’s winners while Utilities fell the most. Following its narrow 215 to 214 passage in the U.S. House of Representatives, President Trump’s 1,000-page tax bill – estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to have a $3.5 trillion price tag – now heads to the Republican-controlled Senate for debate. The move comes less than a week after Moody’s U.S. sovereign downgrade, which was attributed to the country’s ballooning debt. Reminder U.S. stock and bond markets are closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -1.35 points, or 0.01%, to 41,859.09
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 53.09 points, or 0.28%, to 18,925.74
• The Russell 2000 Index slipped -0.99 points, or 0.05% to 2,045.56

• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• The U.S. and China have agreed to maintain communication following a call between Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu and U.S. Deputy Secretary Kurt Campbell on Thursday, according to a readout released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday.
• Japan April CPI rises 0.4% vs 0.3% previous; 3.6% y/y vs 3.5% consensus; April CPI ex-fresh food 3.5% y/y vs 3.4% consensus and Japan April CPI ex-fresh food & energy 3% y/y vs 2.9% prior.
• The US is pressuring the EU to cut tariffs on American goods, as per a report in the FT on Friday. Talks have stalled, with Washington warning of more duties if Brussels doesn’t make concessions.

• Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) increases stock repurchase program to 1M shares.
• Copart Inc. (CPRT) Q3 EPS $0.42 was in-line with consensus and revs rose 7.5% y/y to $1.21B vs. est. $1.23B.
• Deckers Outdoors (DECK) Q4 EPS $1.00 tops consensus $0.61 and revs $1.02B vs. est. $1.01B; board approves $2.25B increase to share buyback authorization; said doesn’t intend to provide quarterly guidance on a regular basis; guides Q1 EPS $0.62-$0.67 on revs $890M-$910M, below consensus $0.79/$925.3M; posted Q1 HOKA and UGG brands’ respective revenue growth of 24% and 13%.
• Ross Stores (ROST) Q1 EPS $1.47 vs. est. $1.43 on revs $4.98B vs. est. $4.96B; Q4 Pretax profit reached $640.8M topping ests $625.4M and net income $479.2M vs. est. $470.1M; sees Q2 EPS $1.40-$1.55 below consensus $1.64; For 13 weeks ending August 2, 2025, comparable store sales now projected to be flat to up 3% on top of 4% gain in Q2 of last year.

• Booz Allen (BAH) reported Q4 Adj EPS $1.61, in-line with estimates and revs $3B vs. est. $3.03B; guided FY revs $12B-$12.5B and EPS $6.20-$6.55 vs. est. $6.41; free cash flow figures weak sinking the stock.
• Shell Plc (SHEL) has agreed to sell its Indonesia gas stations and associated fuel distribution operations to a joint venture between Philippines-based Citadel Pacific Ltd. and Sefas Group.

• LPL Financial (LPLA) released its monthly activity report for April. Total advisory and brokerage assets at the end of April were $1.79T, a decrease of $7B, or 0.4%, compared to the end of March 2025. Total organic net new assets for April were $6.1B, translating to a 4.1% annualized growth rate.
• Webull Corp. (BULL) said Q1 total revenues grew 32% year-over-year to $117M, reflecting strong account and trading volume growth; Q1 Customer assets increased 45% year-over-year, driven by increased customer net deposits; disciplined execution alongside robust revenue growth driving profitability.
• Some of the biggest U.S. banks are exploring whether to team up to issue a joint stablecoin, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. The conversations have so far involved companies co-owned by JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and other large commercial banks – WSJ.

• Lionsgate Studios Corp. (LION) reported Q4 revenue of $1.1B, operating income of $94.2M; Trailing 12-month library revenue was $956M, up 8% y/y; Motion Picture segment revenue grew 28% to $526.4M, while segment profit grew 65% to $135.3M; Television Production segment revenue increased 16% to $543.3M.
• Workday Inc. (WDAY) Q1 adj EPS $2.23 vs. est. $2.01 and revs $2.24B vs. est. $2.22B; authorizes up to $1B stock buyback; reiterating Fy26 subscription revenue guidance of $8.8B while increasing our fiscal 2026 non-GAAP operating margin guidance to approximately 28.5%; Q1 subscription revenue $2.059B, up 13.4% y/y.
• Xerox (XRX) cut its quarterly dividend to 2.5 cents per share.