Early Look

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-89.00	0.25%	36,120
S&P 500	-16.00	0.34%	4,662
Nasdaq	-91.00	0.56%	16,121

 

 

U.S. stock futures are edging lower following the first market decline in over two-weeks on Tuesday, as Wall Street awaits another round of inflation data later this morning. Profit-taking took over yesterday and worries over persistent inflation triggered a broad sell-off after the U.S. October PPI rose sharply, though was mostly in-line with estimates while investors await the Oct CPI later this morning at 8:30 AM. Overnight, data from China showing inflation surging 13.5% from last year, to the fastest pace in nearly three decades, added to concerns that supply chain disruptions, record high energy prices and loose central bank policies will stoke consumer price pressures well into next year. All three major U.S. stock indexes fell on Tuesday, ending an eight-session streak of all-time closing highs set by the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq (and an overall 11-day win streak for the tech heavy Nasdaq). In Asia, the Shanghai Composite index falls as much as 1.7% before paring losses after China’s factory inflation surges to 26-year high. China consumer prices rise at fastest pace since sept. 2020; China Oct. Producer prices rise 13.5% y/y vs. est. 12.3%. Overall, Asian equities trade with heavier tone, with Taiwan and Australia shares relative outperformers. The Nikkei Index declined -0.6% to 29,106, the Shanghai Index slipped -0.4% to 3,492, and the Hang Seng Index rose +0.74% to 24,996. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -25 points to 16,015, while the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.5% to 7,310. Lots of volatile stock movers overnight after earnings and guidance disappoint, while one of the biggest IPOs of the year begins trading later today as Rivian Automotive (RIVN) 153M share IPO priced at $78.00 as the deal size was increased to 153M shares from 135M and priced above the recently raised $72.00-$74.00 range.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index slipped -16.45 points, or 0.35%, to 4,685.25

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -112.24 points, or 0.31%, to 36,319.98

·     The Nasdaq Composite slumped -95.81 points, or 0.60%, to 15,886.54

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -15.45 points, or 0.63% to 2,427.29

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     7:00 AM ET         MBA Mortgage Applications Data

·     8:30 AM ET         Consumer Price Index MoM for October…est. 0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET         Consumer Price Index YoY for Oct…est. 4.3%

·     8:30 AM ET         CPI Ex: Food & Energy MoM for October…est. 0.6%

·     8:30 AM ET         CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY for October…est. 5.8%

·     8:30 AM ET         Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 265K

·     10:00 AM ET      Wholesale Inventories MoM for September

·     10:30 AM ET      Weekly DOE Inventory Data

·     2:00 PM ET         Federal Budget for October

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ADNT, ARKO, BTAI, BTTR, BWEN, CERE, DTIL, ENR, EVGO, EYE, FLOW, FOUR, FTCI, HOOK, KELYA, MCFT, ME, NOVN, PFGC, PTE, RPRX, SCYX, SWIM, TAST, TSHA, UP, VERX, WEN, WVE, WWW

·     Earnings After the Close: AFRM, AMWL, APP, APPH, ATO, BARK, BLND, BMBL, BOXL, BROS, BW, BYND, BZH, CBAY, CCCS, CCMP, DGII, DHX, DIS, DUOL, ELMS, ENS, EVOK, FICO, FIGS, FOSL, GDRX, GHLD, GTBIF, HIMS, HLTH, HOFV, ISR, KMPH, LFMD, LZ, MAX, MKTW, MQ, NAVB, OTIC, PROG, RELY, ROOT, RRGB, RSI, SIEN, WISH, YTEN, ZIP

 

Other Key Events:

·     Baird 51st Annual Global Industrial Conference, 11/9-11/12 (virtual)

·     Bank America 2021 Banking & Financials Conference, 11/9-11/10 (virtual)

·     Cowen 7th Annual Software Bus Tour, 11/9/110 (virtual)

·     Credit Suisse 30th Annual Healthcare Conference, 11/8-11/11 (virtual)

·     JPMorgan Global Consumer, Retail & Luxury Conference, 11/8-11/11 (virtual)

·     Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals, Agriculture & Packaging Conference, 11/10-11/12 (virtual)

·     Piper East Coast Financial Services Conference, 11/10-11/11 (virtual)

·     REITWorld 2021 Annual Conference, 11/9-11/12 (virtual)

·     Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer, 11/10-11/14, in Washington D.C.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.37	83.78
Brent	-0.07	84.71
Gold	-6.50	1,825.38
EUR/USD	-0.0038	1.1555
JPY/USD	0.33	113.20
10-Year Note	+0.034	1.483%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Calloway Golf (ELY) 3Q adj EPS $0.14 vs est. $0.09 on revs $856Mm vs est. $845.6Mm, says Topgolf revs $334Mm on strong domestic walk-in traffic and better event bookings, same-venue sales rose to about 100% of 2019 levels; golf equipment revs +8.4% (club sales +9.5%, ball sales +4.1%); apparel & gear revs +11.9%; guides FY net revs $3.11-3.12B vs est. $3.01B and adj EBITDA $370-390Mm vs est. $380Mm

·     Grocery Outlet (GO) Q3 EPS $0.17 vs. est. $0.22; Q3 revs $768.9M vs. est. $782.1M; authorizes $100M share repurchase program; Q3 comp store sales down 4.3% vs. 9.1% increase last year

·     Hostess Brands (TWNK) Q3 EPS adj EPS 21c vs est. 20c on revenue $288M vs est. $279.3M, raised FY revenue outlook to +9%-10% from +7.5%-9%, reiterated FY EPS and EBITDA views

·     Krispy Kreme (DNUT) Q3 adj EPS $0.06 vs. est. $0.06 and revs rose 18.1% to $342.8M vs. est. $337.7M; reaffirms FY21 guidance and long-term outlook; sees FY revs $1.34B-$1.38B vs. est. $1.36B

·     Nautilus (NLS) shares fell -15%; Q2 adj EPS $0.03 vs. est. $0.08; Q3 revs fell -11.2% to $138M vs. est. $150.1M; Gross profit was $42.1 million, compared to $67.9 million last year; gross profit margins were 30.5% compared to 43.7% last year; Operating expenses were $44.0 million, an increase of $20.1 million, or 83.8%, compared to last year

·     Poshmark (POSH) 3Q EPS ($0.09) vs est. ($0.07) on revs $79.7Mm vs est. $82.7Mm; guides 4Q revs $80-82Mm vs est. $85.2Mm, sees 4Q EBITDA negative 7-8Mm vs est. $1.2Mm

·     Purple Innovation (PRPL) shares fall -25%; Q3 adj EPS (7c) vs est. 16c profit on revenue $170.8M that missed est. $198.3M; said results were disappointing largely due to impacts from manufacturing backlog that were longer-lasting than anticipated with lack of inventory impacting sales through all channels, and further missed opportunities related to pricing and cost management; sees full-year revenue $720M-$740M below est. $818M

·     The Beauty Health Company (SKIN) Q3 EPS ($1.68) vs est. ($0.02) on sales $68.1M vs est. $57M, raised full-year sales forecast to $245M-$255M from $230M-$240M, adj. EBITDA to approx. $30M from approx. $25M; announced current CEO Clint Carnell will be stepping down effective Dec. 31, 2021

 

Casino, Auto, Leisure, Trave

·     Rivian Automotive (RIVN) 153M share IPO priced at $78.00 as the deal size was increased to 153M shares from 135M and priced above the recently raised $72.00-$74.00 range

·     CarGurus, Inc. (CARG) 3Q adj EPS $0.38 vs est. $0.32 on revs $222.9Mm vs est. $217.8Mm; guides 4Q adj EPS $0.28-0.30 vs est. $0.31, sees 4Q revs $273-285Mm vs est. $222.3Mm

·     DoorDash (DASH) 3Q revs $1.3B vs est. $1.175B, adj EBITDA $86Mm vs est. $73Mm; buying Finland food-delivery startup for $8.1B, says expects deal accretive to gov growth in 2022

·     Nio Inc. (NIO) Q3 total revenues of $1.52B (+116.6% Y/Y), beats by $0.05B, and adjusted EPS of -$0.06, beats by $0.06; Vehicle sales were $1.34B, up 102.4% from Q3 2020 and up 9.2% from Q2 2021; deliveries were 24,439, in-line with the company’s guidance; sees Q4 revs between $1.46B and $1.57B vs. est. of $1.75B

·     Scientific Gaming (SGMS) Q3 EPS $0.96 vs est. $0.29 on revenue $824M vs est. $818.5M

·     Vroom Inc. (VRM) total revenue and its loss more than doubled in the third quarter from a year earlier; Q3 EPS loss (-$0.70) while revs rose to $896.8M; total number of units sold rose 89.6% to 31,192, with ecommerce units sold up 58.3% to 9760; ecommerce revenue grew 216.4% to $701.7 million, and wholesale revenue increased 105.3% to $131.3M; sees FY revs $865M-$900M

·     Wynn Resorts (WYNN) 3Q adj EPS ($1.24) vs est. ($1.31) on revs $994.6Mm vs est. $942.7Mm (Macau revs $130.7Mm vs $51.4Mm, Vegas revs $476Mm vs $186,.7Mm)

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     The American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a weekly draw of 2.5M barrels of oil for the week ending November 5, gasoline inventories show a draw of 4.5M barrels, distillate inventories show a draw of 3.3M barrels and Cushing inventories show a build of 234K barrels

·     Plug Power (PLUG) 3Q revs $143.9Mm vs est. $144Mm, acquires Frames Group to boost engineering, process and systems integration

·     Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS) Q3 EPS $0.07 vs. est. $0.07; Q3 revs $59.8M vs. est. $61.64M

·     Stem Inc. (STEM) Q3 EPS ($0.15) vs est. ($0.35) on revenue $39.8M vs est. $35.9M, bookings $104M (+183% YoY), contracted backlog $312M (+25% YoY); sees FY revenue $147M vs est. $146.2M

 

Financials

·     Coinbase (COIN) shares fell -15%; Q3 adj EPS $1.62 vs. est. $1.57 and revs $1.24B vs. est. $1.57B; believe that retail MTUs and total trading volume will be higher in q4 as compared to Q3; qtrly retail monthly transacting users (MTUs) 7.4 mln vs 2.1 mln; qtrly trading volume $327 bln vs $45 bln; anticipate transaction expenses will be in the mid-teens as a percent of net rev for 2021

·     Franklin Resources (BEN) reported preliminary month-end assets under management of $1.5617T at October 31, 2021, compared to $1.5301T at September 30, 2021

·     Expensify (EXFY) 9.731M share IPO priced at $27.00

·     Prudential (PRU) board authorizes up to $1.5B share buyback

·     Upstart Holding (UPST) shares slide -20%; Q3 adj EPS $0.60 vs. est. $0.33; Q3 revs rose 250% to $228M vs. est. $214.9M; sees Q4 revs $255M-$265M vs. est. $226.5M; Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate; Bank Partners originated 362,780 loans, totaling $3.13 billion

 

Healthcare

·     Aurora Cannabis (ACB) Q1 revenue C$60.1M vs est. C$60.6M; said its transformation plan is on track and actions taken to date have saved $33M in annualized run-rate cost savings and are positioned to deliver approx. $60M-$80M in SG&A upon completion; said their strong adj gross margins and narrowing adj EBITDA loss provide them with a clear path to profitability by 1H23

·     Doximity (DOCS) Q2 EPS $0.17 vs est. $0.10 on revenue $79.4M vs est. $73.5M; sees Q3 revenue $25.8M-$86.8M vs est. $74.6M, full-year revenue $326.1M-$328.1M vs est. $299.2M; said its lock-up period will expire at the opening of trading on Friday, November 12

·     GoHealth (GOCO) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.18) vs. est. loss (-$0.10); Q3 revs $211.7M vs. est. $198.85M; reaffirms year rev outlook $1.2B-$1.3B (est. $1.26B)

·     Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) Q3 adj EPS $4.20 vs. est. $3.32; Q3 revs $838.1M vs. est. $832.52M; raises adj EPS view to $15.10-$15.80 from $13.40-$14.70 while narrows FY21 revenue view to $3.020B-$3.100 from $3.020B-$3.180B; sees FY21 R&D Expenses $465M-$485M

·     Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) 7.83M share Secondary priced at $14.00

·     Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (LGND) said it is pursuing plans to split Ligand into two separate, publicly traded companies; 3Q adj EPS $1.58 vs est. $1.04 on revs $64.8Mm vs est. $55.7Mm; guides FY adj EPS $5.80-6.05 vs est. $5.93, sees FY revs $265-275Mm vs est. $270.1Mm

·     NuVasive, Inc. (NUVA) Q3 adj EPS $0.32 vs. est. $0.54; Q3 revs $270.8M vs. est. $291.8M; said Q3 miss due to the negative impact from the resurgence of COVID-19 and healthcare staffing shortages; cuts FY21 adj EPS view to $1.73-$1.83 from $2.25-$2.35 (est. $2.23) and lowers FY21 rev view to $1.132B-$1.142B from $1.19B-$1.21B

·     Valneva SE (VALN) said that the European Commission has approved an agreement pursuant to which Valneva would supply up to 60 million doses of VLA2001, its inactivated COVID-19 vaccine candidate, over two years including approximately 27 million doses in 2022.

·     Veracyte (VCYT) 3Q EPS ($0.20) vs est. ($0.17) on revs $60.4Mm vs est. $54.4Mm; guides FY revs $210-218Mm vs est. $205.9Mm and prior $200-208Mm

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) slips as Europe’s second-highest court dismisses Google’s appeal against an EU antitrust ruling and 2.42 bln euro ($2.80 bln) fine saying the judgment relates to a very specific set of facts, will review it closely

·     Tencent (TCEHY) reported 3Q profit that exceeded expectations even as revenue missed amid China’s crackdown on the tech industry

·     Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) 3Q EPS ($0.18) vs est. ($0.14) on revs $111.1Mm vs est. $106.2Mm; guides 4Q adj EPS ($0.07)-0.00 vs est. ($0.02), sees 4Q revs $130-140Mm vs est. $$129Mm

·     Bottomline Technologies (EPAY) 1Q adj EPS $0.22 vs est. $0.25 on revs $123.6Mm vs est. $122.3Mm

·     Coherent (COHR) Q4 adj EPS $1.77 vs. est. $2.12; Q4 revs $391.7M vs. est. $405.2M; said grew bookings, revenue, non-GAAP margins and EPS and our book-to-bill was greater than one resulting in the highest year-end backlog in three years

·     CS Disco (LAW) Q3 revenue $29.9M vs est. $25.8M, net loss ($9.2M) vs est. ($11.67M); guided Q4 revenue $28.2M-$28.8M vs est. $27.5M, adj EBITDA ($10M)-($9M) vs est. ($9.3M), full-year revenue $108.7M-$109.3M vs est. $104.1M, adj EBITDA ($21.1M)-($20.1M) vs est. ($23.3M)

·     Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG) Q3 EPS $0.05 vs. est. loss (-$0.14); Q3 revs rose 36% to $96.7M vs. est. $94.25M; guides Q4 larger loss of (20c-19c) vs. est. loss (-$0.06) but revs higher at $102-$102.2M vs. est. $100M; raises year EPS and rev view

·     FuboTV (FUBO) qtrly total revenue grew 156% yoy to $156.7M vs. est. $143.55M; qtrly average revenue per user (ARPU) per month increased 10% yoy to $74.54; to expand global footprint with acquisition of France’s leading live tv streaming service, Molotov SAS; reaches one million subscribers and says raises 2021 guidance

·     RingCentral, Inc. (RNG) 3Q adj EPS $0.36 vs est. $0.33 on revs $415Mm vs est. $393.4Mm, says CFO has stepped down; guides FY revs $1.58-1.581B vs est. $1.545B, sees FY adj EPS $1.32 vs est. $1.29; announces strategic partnership with Mitel investor group

·     SailPoint Technologies Holdings, Inc (SAIL) 3Q adj EPS $0.00 vs est. ($0.07) on revs $110.1Mm vs est. $103.4Mm; guides 4Q adj EPS loss $0.06-0.08 vs est. $0.00, sees 4Q revs $112-114Mm vs est. $114.1Mm; guides FY adj EPS loss $0.06-0.07 vs est. loss $0.06, sees FY revs $415.5-417.5Mm vs est. $410.8Mm

·     Toast Inc. (TOST) Q3 EPS ($1.05) vs est. ($0.16) on revenue $486.4M vs est. $430M, annualized recurring run-rate (ARR) $543.8M (+77% YoY), gross payment volume $16.5B (+123% YoY); sees Q4 revenue $465M-$495M vs est. $440.5M and adj EBITDA ($46m)-($36M) vs est. ($72.65M), full-year revenue $1.655B-$1.685B vs est. $1.575B

·     Unity Software (U) Q3 adj EPS (6c) vs est. (7c) on revenue $286.3M vs est. $265.8M; announced intention to buy film director Peter Jackson’s Weta Digital Studio for $1.625B in cash and stock; sees Q4 revenue $285M-$290M vs est. $287.3M, raised FY revenue guidance to $1.08B-$1.085B from $1.045B-$1.06B (est. $1.06B)

·     2U Inc. (TWOU) 3Q adj EPS ($0.23) vs est. ($0.25) on revs $232.4Mm vs est. $232.2Mm; guides FY revs $935-955Mm vs est. $945.4Mm; sees FY21 net loss $200.0M-$190.0M