Early Look

Thursday, November 14, 2024

U.S. overnight futures are quiet, pointing to a modestly higher open ahead of another busy day of Fed speakers, as well as producer price inflation data as the dollar surges and gold tumbles. U.S. stocks finished mixed on Wednesday following in-line CPI inflation data, while attention turns to PPI for October later this morning. Estimates for headline Producer Price Index (PPI) M/M for October is to rise +0.2% (prior 0%) and Y/Y to rise +2.3% (prior +1.8%). The core headline PPI (ex: food & energy) M/M for October expected to rise +0.3% (prior +0.2%) and Y/Y est. rise +3.0% (prior +2.8%). Ahead of October PPI inflation data, the US dollar index (DXY) advances for a 7th straight day, rising +0.5% and topping the 107 level since October 2023. The Japanese yen weakens to near 156-handle and euro prints a fresh one-year low around the 105 level. Gold prices slide -1.4% to $2,550 an ounce, on track for its 5th straight decline amid the rise in the dollar. In stock news this morning, Tapestry announces termination of Capri Holdings in the retail space; Dow components Disney and Cisco both report quarterly earnings. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -185 points to 38,535, the Shanghai Index fell -59 points to 3,379, and the Hang Seng Index tumbled -387 points to 19,435. In Europe, the German DAX is up 234 points to 19,237, while the FTSE 100 rises 30 points to 8,059.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 47.21 points, or 0.11%, to 43,958.19.
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -50.66 points, or 0.26%, to 19,230.74.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -22.48 points, or 0.94% to 2,369.37.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.88M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) M/M for October…est. +0.2% (prior 0%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) Y/Y for October…est. +2.3% (prior +1.8%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PPI (ex: food & energy) M/M for October…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PPI (ex: food & energy) Y/Y for October…est. +3.0% (prior +2.8%)
• 9:15 AM ET                  Fed’s Barkin Discusses Economy in Fireside Chat
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 3:00 PM ET                   Powell Speaks at Event in Dallas
• 4:15 PM ET                   Fed’s Williams Speaks at NY Fed Event

• Earnings After the Close: AKYA AMAT ASTS DMRC DNMR ESE HYLN IPW MOVE NGS OKLO POST REKR SOL TRAK TTOO

• JP Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference, 11/13-11/14, in New York
• Oppenheimer AI Impact on Cloud and Communications Summit, 11/14-11/15 (virtual)
• Sidoti Micro-Cap Virtual Conference, 11/13-11/14
• Truist Internet Growth Summit (virtual), 11/11-11/14
• China house Prices Y/Y for October
• China Industrial Output and Retail Sales for October

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 21.5 vs 13.9 last week. Bulls rise to 49.8% from 41.5%, Neutrals fall to 21.8% from 30.9%, Bears rise to 28.3% from 27.6%
• In Politics, Associated Press called two more House seat for Republicans and two for Democrats, taking the AP tally to 218 Republicans and 208 Democrats. South Dakota Senator John Thune was elected as the next Senate majority leader. Trump announced nomination of Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state, as reported earlier. Trump picked Congressman Matt Gaetz to be attorney general.

• Beazer Homes (BZH) Q4 revs rose 25% y/y to $806.2M vs. est. $777.8M; Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of $243.4 million, down 10.5%; Homebuilding revenue of $2.29 billion, up 4.3% on a 4.8% increase in home closings to 4,450; Q4 Homebuilding gross margin was 18.0%, down 190 basis points; Q4 cancellation rate 21.9% vs. 16.5% y/y.
• Brightview Holdings (BV) Q4 adj EPS $0.30 vs est. $0.31, adj EBITDA $105.2Mm vs est. $105.4Mm on revs $728.7Mm vs est. $732.2Mm; guides FY revs $2.75-2.84B vs est. $2.803B, adj EBITDA $335-355Mm vs est. $346.92Mm and FCF $40-60Mm.
• Capri Holdings (CPRI) announces termination of merger with Tapestry (TPR); TPR announces additional $2B share repurchase authorization, including a planned accelerated share repurchase program; reaffirms forecast.
• Ibotta (IBTA) Q3 adj EPS $0.94 vs. est. $0.35; Q3 revs rose 16% y/y to $98.6M vs. est. $94.1M; guides Q4 revs $100M-$106M vs. est. $110.29M; Delivered Q3 adj EBITDA of $36.5M, representing an adj EBITDA margin of 37%
• J&J Snack Foods (JJSF) Q4 adj EPS $1.60 vs est. $1.85, adj EBITDA $59.7Mm vs est. $66.16 on sales $426.756Mm vs est. $429.75Mm.

• Hillenbrand (HI) Q4 adj EPS $1.01 vs est. $0.92, adj EBITDA $144Mm vs est. $134.23Mm on revs $837.6Mm vs est. $792.98Mm; sees Q1 adj EPS $0.52-0.57 vs est. $0.63 and FY adj EPS $2.80-3.15 vs est. $3.08.
• Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) announced it has entered into a definitive purchase agreement to acquire certain Montney assets from Paramount Resources Ltd, in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $2.377 billion.
• SMA Solar (SMTGF) reduces sales and earnings guidance due to sustained market slowdown in the Home and C&I segments as well as the restructuring and transformation program; accounting depreciation and amortization will lead to a further estimated €20M to €30M reduction in EBIT.
• Tetra Tech (TTEK) Q4 adj EPS $0.38 vs est. $0.37 on revs $1.37B vs est. $1.135B; record backlog $5.38B; guides Q1 revs $1.09-1.15B vs est. $1.092B and EPS $0.32-0.34 vs est. $0.34; guides FY revs $4.565-4.765B vs est. $4.661B and EPS $1.40-1.50 vs est. $1.50.

• Tarsus Pharma (TARS) Q3 EPS ($0.61) vs est. ($0.97) on sales $48.1Mm vs est. $43.44Mm.

• Disney (DIS) Q2 adj EPS $1.14 vs. est. $1.10; Q4 revs rose 6.3% y/y to $22.57B vs. est. $22.47B; Q2 Operating income rose 23% from a year earlier to nearly $3.7B; Q2 Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ produced operating profit of $321M for the quarter; Disney’s Experiences segment that includes parks and consumer products declined 6% to $1.66B; reported a 32% drop in operating income at international parks; Q2 Sports unit operating income fell 5% to $929 million (includes ESPN); forecasts high-single digit adj EPS growth in FY25, vs. est. +4%.
• ASML said it expects its sales to grow to between 44 billion euros and 60 billion ($46.4 billion-$63.3 billion) by 2030, suggesting an average annual increase of 8%-14%, driven by strong demand for its most advanced tools.
• 3D Systems (DDD) provides prelim Q3 results saying revenue to be approximately $113M; Q3 materials grew 10% year-over-year and 9% sequentially, offset by declines in printer revenues driven by continued macro-related pressures on capital spending.
• Digi international (DIGI) Q4 adj EPS $0.52 vs est. $0.50, adj EBITDA $26Mm vs est. $24.88Mm on revs $105.1Mm vs est. $104.08Mm; guides Q1 revs $102-106Mm vs est. $105.98Mm, adj EBITDA $24-25.5Mm vs est. $25.38Mm and adj EPS $0.46-0.50 vs est. $0.51.
• JD.com (JD) Q3 adjusted EPS $1.24 (8.68 yuan) on revenue of $37.1B (260.4 billion yuan) vs. est. $1.05 and revenue of $36 billion; revenue was up 5.1% from the same period last year; didn’t issue any formal guidance for the current fourth quarter.
• Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) Q4 adj EPS $0.34 vs. est. $0.35; Q4 revs $181.3M vs. est. $180M; announces new $300 mln share repurchase program authorized by board; raised quarterly dividend; sees Q1 non-GAAP EPS 28c +/-10%, vs. consensus $0.33 and sees Q1 revenue $155.0M-$175M vs. est. $179.5M.
• NextNav (NN) Q3 EPS ($0.11) vs est. ($0.16) on revs $1.61Mm vs est. $1.105Mm.
• Sonos Inc. (SONO) Q4 adj EPS ($0.18) vs est. ($0.41), adj EBITDA ($22.6)Mm vs est. ($29.6)Mm on revs $255.38Mm vs est. $247.36Mm; will provide guidance on earning call.
• Synaptics Inc (SYNA) to offer $400M convertible senior notes due 2031.