Morning Preview: November 16, 2021

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Early Look

Tuesday, November 16, 2021









S&P 500










U.S. equity futures are looking modestly higher, while the U.S. dollar extended recent gains and Treasury yields stay steady after strong gains Monday as markets await key economic data releases (retail sales, import prices, industrial production) that could offer clarity on the strength of the economy. Dow component Home Depot (HD) reported a top and bottom line quarterly beat this morning on better comp sales, with Wal-Mart (WMT) earnings expected later this morning. Outside of earnings, markets also await news on who the next Federal Reserve Chair will be after Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown said he was told by White House officials to expect an “imminent” announcement. The yuan came close to its strongest level since 2018 after President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping held their first face-to-face virtual summit. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 0.1% to 29,808, the Shanghai Index slipped 0.33% to 3,521, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 1.27% or over 300 points to 25,713. In Europe, the German DAX is up 0.3% to 16,200, while the FTSE 100 rises 0.2% to 7,365.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index slipped -0.05 points, or 0.00%, to 4,682.80

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -12.86 points, or 0.04%, to 36,087.45

·     The Nasdaq Composite dipped -7.11 points, or 0.04%, to 15,853.85

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -10.84 points, or 0.45% to 2,400.93


Events Calendar for Today

·     7:45 AM ET         ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

·     8:30 AM ET         Import Prices MoM for October…est. +1.0%

·     8:30 AM ET         Export Prices MoM for October…est. +0.9%

·     8:30 AM ET         Retail Sales MoM for October…est. +1.2%

·     8:30 AM ET         Retail Sales Ex: Autos MoM for October…est. +1.0%

·     8:55 AM ET         Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales

·     9:15 AM ET         Industrial Production MoM for Oct…est. +0.7%

·     9:15 AM ET         Capacity Utilization for Oct…est. est. 75.8%

·     10:00 AM ET      Business Inventories MoM for September…est. +0.6%

·     10:00 AM ET      NAHB Housing Market Index for November…est. 80

·     4:00 PM ET         Net Long-term TIC Flows for Sept

·     4:30 PM ET         API Weekly Inventory Data


Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: AQUA, ECC, GFF, HD, NRXP, TDG, WMT

·     Earnings After the Close: AVDX, DLB, LZB, PAVM, PPSI, VREX


Other Key Events:

·     Craig-Hallum 12th Annual Alpha Select Conference, 11/16

·     Deutsche Bank Gaming, Lodging, Leisure & Restaurants Conference (virtual), 11/16-11/17

·     Needham Annual tech Week (virtual), 11/16-11/18

·     RBC Capital Global Technology, Internet, Media & Telecom Conference (virtual), 11/16-11/17

·     RBC Capital Midstream & Energy Infrastructure Conference in Dallas, 11/16-11/17

·     RBC Capital Global Mining & Materials Conference (virtual), 11/16-11/17

·     STAT Summit 2021 (virtual), 11/16-11/18

·     Stifel 2021 Healthcare Conference (virtual), 11/15-11/17





















10-Year Note





Sector News Breakdown


·     Home Depot (HD) Q3 EPS $3.92 vs. est. $3.40; Q3 revs $36.82B vs. est. $35.01B; Q3 comp sales rose 6.1% vs. est. 2.4% and comparable sales in the U.S. increased 5.5% vs. est. 2.3%; Q3 average ticket $82.38; gross margin declined to 34.1% from 34.2%

·     Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk sold more shares in the EV maker. Musk exercised options and sold around another $930m in Tesla shares on Monday, adding to the $6.9b he had already sold last week.

·     Advance Auto Parts (AAP) 3Q adj EPS $3.21 vs est. $2.87 on revs $2.6B vs est. $2.58B, comps +3.1%; guides FY net sales $10.9-10.95B vs est. $10.83B and prior $10-6-10.8B, sees FY comps +9.5-10% vs prior +6-8%, sees adj op margin 9.4-9.5% vs prior 9.2-9.4%, new store opening at least 30 vs prior 80-120, FCF at least $725Mm vs prior at least $700Mm

·     Esports Entertainment Group (GMBL) 1Q EPS ($0.03) vs est. (0.35) on revs $16.4Mm vs est. $16.4Mm, adj EBITDA ($2.7Mm) vs est. ($5.9Mm); sees FY net revs $100Mm vs est. $95Mm

·     Lightning eMotors, Inc., (ZEV) 3Q EPS ($0.67) vs est. ($0.18) on revs $6.3Mmvs est. $5.5Mm; guides 4Q revs $4-6Mm vs est. $10.7Mm; expects first purpose built lightning Echassis to ship in 2022

· (LTRY) 3Q ESP $0.24 on revs $32.2Mm vs est. $22.5Mm, trans/user 12.4 vs 11.2, gr profit/trans $1.69 vs $0.93 and gr margin/trans 17.8% vs 11.3%

·     Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) announces registered direct offering of ordinary shares

·     PLBY Group (PLBY) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.18) vs. est. loss (-$0.04); Q3 revs rose 67% to $58.36M vs. est. $57.66M; Direct-to-consumer revenue grew 139% YoY to $36.0M, and licensing revenue grew 14% YoY to $16.9M; Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $5.2 million and net loss was $7.7 million

·     The Beachbody Company Group LLC (BODY) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.13) vs. est. loss (-$0.15); Q3 revs $208.1M vs. est. $246.9M; Q3 digital revenue was $94.1M, a 5% decrease compared to 2020 and a 38% increase from 2019; cuts FY21 revenue to $820M-$830M from prior view $930M-$960M and below est. $964M while backs FY21 adjusted EBITDA view

·     Traeger, Inc. (COOK) 3Q adj EPS ($0.06) vs est. ($0.08) on revs $162Mm vs est. $140.9Mm; guides FY revs $760-770Mm vs est. $764.8Mm, sees FY adj EBITDA $103-108Mm vs est. $105.6Mm

·     XpresSpa Group, Inc. (XSPA) 3Q revs $26.8Mm vs est. $9.97Mm, net income $5.6Mm; unrestricted cash balance $109.2Mm, adj EBITDA $8.7Mm vs est. $-2.7Mm


Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Ammo Inc. (POWW) 2Q adj EPS $0.17 vs est. $0.11 on revs $61Mm vs est. $55Mm, backlog over $185Mm; guides FY22 revs $250Mm vs est. $219.8Mm and prior $210Mm, sees adj EBITDA $80Mm vs est. $75.7Mm and prior $70Mm;

·     Axon Enterprises (AXON) Q3 adj EPS $1.17 on revs up 39% to $232M vs. est. $201.1M; reports record bookings of $0.5b in Q3, up 70% YTD; q3 revenue up 39%; raises 2022 revenue outlook to $1 billion; sees FY revs. high end of $840M-$850M vs. est. $843.6M

·     Compass Minerals (CMP) announces new capital allocation strategy; dividend reduction supports funding growth opportunities in previously announced lithium development and ownership stake in emerging fire-retardant business

·     Danimer Scientific, Inc. (DNMR) 3Q EPS $0.08 vs est. ($0.09) on revs $13.4Mm vs est. $14.5Mm; says expects to continue its acceleration of investments in headcount, inclusive of Novomer; expects 2H revs weighted toward 4Q, sees FY CAPEX $200-210Mm

·     Luna Innovations (LUNA) 3Q adj EPS $0.03 vs est. $0.08 on revs $20.3Mm vs est. $30Mm; guides FY revs $85-88Mm vs est. $121Mm, sees FY adj EBITDA $6-8Mm vs est. $15Mm

·     XL Fleet Corp. (XL) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.05) on revs $3.2M vs. est. $4.9M (down from $6.3M YoY); Delivered gross margins of approximately 22%, compared to gross margins of approximately 12% YoY; exited Q3 with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $367M; expanded platform availability for XL Hybrid system on Ram 2500 & 3500 heavy duty pickup trucks and Isuzu NPR-HD



·     Bitcoin prices sharply lower after news of tighter scrutiny in U.S. and China, down over 5% trying to hold the $60K level while Ethereum down over 6.5% a $4,250, Litecoin down 10% at $235 and Bitcoin cash down 11% under $600 – watch crypto miners, etc. (MARA, COIN, MSTR, RIOT, SI, NCTY)

·     Sun Communities (SUI) 3.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $185.00

·     CubeSmart (CUBE) entered into an agreement to acquire 100% of the outstanding partnership units of LAACO, Ltd., the owner of the Storage West platform for approximately $1.69 billion, which includes approximately $40.9 million of LAACO debt that will be repaid at, or shortly after, the closing.



·     Biogen (BIIB) announced that research chief Alfred Sandrock would retire by the end of this year, after a 23-year run, and Priya Singhal will lead the R&D unit on an interim basis

·     Molecular Partners (MOLN) shares tumble over 30% after the company said a planned futility analysis of ensovibep in an ongoing clinical study hasn’t met the thresholds required to continue enrollment of adults with Covid-19 in a hospitalized setting.

·     Charlotte’s Web (CWBHF) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.01) vs. est. loss (-$0.04); Q3 revs $23.7M vs. est. $28.8M; Q3 DTC eCommerce revenue was $15.2M vs. $16.7M with increased customers and unit sales and B2B revenue increased to $8.5M vs. $8.4M with increased unit sales

·     Clover Health Investments Corp (CLOV) announces offering of 35 mln shares of its class a common stock

·     Fortress Biotech, Inc. (FBIO) 3Q adj EPS $0.54 vs est. ($0.08) on revs $21.1Mm vs est. $18.4Mm

·     Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX) 3Q EPS ($0.40) vs est. ($0.23); guides FY R&D exp $90-100Mm, sees FY total op exp $110-120Mm

·     Talkspace (TALK) co-founder Oren Frank steps down from CEO role and from board, effective today, while Co-founder and head of clinical services Roni Frank also steps down from her role, board; co also posted 23% rise in Q3 net revenue to ~$26M; says active members grew 21% to ~60,300 in the quarter


Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Desktop Metal (DM) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.26) vs. est. loss (-$0.09); Q3 revs $25.4M vs. est. $27.11M; Q3 net loss of $66.9M, including $15.2M of in-process research and development assets related to acquisitions, and adjusted EBITDA of ($26.0M); sees FY21 revenue $92M-$102M, ex effects of acquiring ExOne, representing between 459% to 519% YoY growth vs. est. $105.27M

·     Porch Group (PRCH) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.08) vs. est. loss (-$0.14); Q3 revs rose 192% to $62.7M vs. est. $57.2M; raises FY21 revenue outlook to $195M from $187.5M (est. $189.06M); boosted gross written premium guidance to $305M from $300M

·     Rackspace Technology (RXT) 3Q adj EPS $0.25 vs est. $0.24 on revs $763Mm vs est. $756Mm; guides 4Q revs $766-776 vs est. $771.4Mm, sees adj EPS $0.23-0.25 vs est. $0.24

·     Unity Software (U) announces $1.5B convertible senior notes offering

·     Sea Limited (SE) raises FY21 e-commerce revenue view to $5.0B-$5.2B from $4.7B-$4.9B, representing 135.3% growth from 2020 at the midpoint of the revised guidance

·     NetEase (NTES) Q3 revs of 22.2 bln yuan ($3.48 bln) beats est. 21.17 bln yuan ($3.33 bln); misses profit estimate, reporting earnings of 5.75 yuan per share (90 cents/share) vs est. 5.97 yuan per share (93 cents/share)


Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.

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