Early Look

Friday, November 21, 2025

After the Nasdaq Composite registered its lowest closing level since September 11, and the S&P 500 marks its lowest close since Sept 10, U.S. futures are down slightly overnight, though off their worst levels. Yesterday also marked the highest volume for the QQQ since April lows, which closed below the 100dma support of 587.15 (after earlier taking out its 50dma support of 607.10). A lot of technical damage has been done this week in short time as a combination of reduced Fed rate cut expectations in December, high AI/tech valuation concerns, the Japanese yen carry unwind and crypto panic explain the price action in recent weeks. With stocks ending near the lows on Thursday, markets saw one of their biggest reversals from high to lows in some time. By days end, it was a more than 1,000 move off the highs for the Nasdaq closing near the lows and more than 235 point move off the highs for the S&P 500 as both the SPY and QQQ, approached/broke their 100dma supports after breaching their 50dma this morning. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) also posted its highest close since April. A beat and raise quarter by NVDA Wednesday night, coupled with better jobs lifted stocks on the open Thursday, but it was all downhill after that on mass profit taking, especially in tech (XLK) which fell -3%.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -1,198 points to 48,625, the Shanghai Index fell -96 points to 3,834, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -615 points to 25,220. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said he wanted “just a bit more data” on next year’s wage-growth direction and warned of the boost a weak yen could have on underlying inflation, issuing the strongest signal yet on the chance of a December rate hike. Japan’s new prime minister and her cabinet on Friday announced a 21.3 trillion yen ($135 billion) stimulus package to provide relief to households squeezed by higher costs. The US dollar weakened vs. the Japanese Yen to 156.76 vs. the Dollar after surging this week. In Europe, the German DAX is down -133 points to 23,145, while the FTSE 100 falls -26 points to 9,500. Bitcoin extends weekly/monthly decline, falling another -4.9% to 82,936 and Ethereum slides -5.9% to $2,700 (down -11.6% and -19% YTD respectively). Oil prices dragging on energy companies, with Brent down over 2% below $62/barrel as traders weigh a Ukraine-Russia peace plan and sanctions on two Russian oil majors. Bonds rally as yields fall.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -386.51 points, or 0.84%, to 45,752.26
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -486.18 points, or 2.15%, to 22,078.05
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -42.79 points, or 1.82% to 2,305.10

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Nov-flash…est. 54.6
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Nov-flash…est. 54.5
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Sentiment, Nov-F…est. 50.5
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Oppenheimer Internet Bus Tour, 11/20-11/21

• Copart (CPRT) Q1 adj EPS $0.41 vs. est. $0.40; Q1 revs $1.16B vs. est. $1.18B; Q1 Net Income $402.21M, Q1 Operating Income $430.694M and Q1 gross profit $536.998M.
• Gap Inc. (GAP) Q3 EPS $0.62 vs est $0.59 on sales $3.94B vs est $3.91B, comps +5%; guides FY net sales +1.7-2.0% vs est +1.58% and Op mgn about 7.2%; Q3 Gap comp sales rose 7%, Old Navy +6%, Banana Republic +4% and Athleta -11%.
• Natural Grocers (NGVC) Q4 EPS $0.51 vs est $0.42, adj EBITDA $24.4MM on sales $336.1Mm, gr mgn 29.5%; raises quarterly dividend to 25% 15c per share.
• Nike (NKE) raises quarterly dividend 2.5% to $0.41.
• Phoenix Education Partners (PXED) Q4 adj EPS $0.46 vs est $0.93 on sales $257.4Mm vs est $251.384Mm; guides FY26 revs $1.025-1.035B vs est $1.023B.
• Ross Stores (ROST) Q3 EPS $1.58 vs est $1.41 on revs $5.601B vs est $5.418B; guides Q4 EPS $1.77-1.85 vs est $1.79; for 13 weeks ending January 31, 2026, we are raising our comparable store sales forecast to be up 3% to 4%

• Esco Technology (ESE) Q4 adj EPS $2.32 vs est $2.14 on sales $353Mm vs est $339.07Mm; sees Q1 adj EPS $1.25-1.35 vs est $1.50; guides FY26 net sales $1.27-1.31B vs est $1.276B and adj EPS $7.50-7.80 vs est $7.26

• Intuit Corp. (INTU) Q1 adj EPS $3.34 vs est $3.09 on revs $3.9B vs est $3.76B; guides Q2 revs $4.52-4.55B vs est $4.469B and adj EPS $3.63-3.68 vs est $3.83; sees FY revs $21-21.19B vs est $21.156B and adj EPS $22.98-23.18 vs est $23.18.
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C): The banks shelved a planned $20 billion bailout for Argentina in favor of a smaller, short-term loan package – WSJ.

• GE Healthcare (GEHC) announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Intelerad, a medical imaging software provider for the healthcare industry, for a purchase price of $2.3B paid in cash.
• Phio Pharmaceuticals (PHIO) files to sell 11.76M shares of common stock for holders
• Veeva Systems (VEEV) Q3 adj EPS $2.04 vs est $1.95, adj Op Inc $364.9Mm vs est $349.8Mm on revs $811.236Mm vs est $792.1Mm; guides Q4 revs $807-810Mm vs est $800.58Mm and adj EPS $1.92 vs est $1.90; sees FY revs $3.166-3.169B vs est $3.141B and adj EPS approx $7.93 vs est $7.81.

• Elastic (ESTC) Q2 adj EPS $0.64 vs. est. $0.58; Q2 revs $423M vs. est. $418.12M; sees Q3 adjusted EPS $0.63-$0.65 vs. est. $0.60 and revs $437M-$439M vs. est. $429.94M; Q2 Total subscription revenue was $398M, an increase of 17% y/y; Q2 Current remaining performance obligations were $971M, up 17% y/y.
• T-Mobile (TMUS) was downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer and removed the firm’s $300 price target on the shares saying the company will have a difficult time beating subscriber and free cash flow estimates after a decade of outsized share gains and margin expansion.
• Webull (BULL) Q3 adj EPS $0.08 on revs rose 55% y/y to $156.9Mm; Q3 Total operating expenses increased 18% y/y, primarily driven by higher brokerage and transaction costs, reflecting rapid growth in trading volumes and product expansion; Q3 Funded accounts increased to 4.93M, representing 9% y/y growth.
• Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) has received preliminary buyout bids from rivals Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Comcast (CMCSA), and Netflix (NFLX), Reuters reported a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday, kicking off a potential sale of the century-old Hollywood studio.