Early Look

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

U.S. futures slipped overnight after Wall Street rebounded strongly on Monday, led by the Nasdaq Composite posting a 2.7% gain, in a holiday-shortened week before the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday. After three weeks of losses for the Nasdaq, tech got a big bounce on Monday led by Mag 7, chips, software and AI related plays, while investors prepare for a big earnings slate tonight after the close with ADSK, AMBA, DELL, HPQ, NTAP, NTNX, PD, WDAY, and ZS all expected to report in software and hardware sectors. Retailer earnings dominate the calendar this morning with BBY, BURL, DKS, ANF, KSS all expected. Yesterday’s market rally came as investors were cheered by rising confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates when it meets next month with Fed funds futures traders now pricing in an 85% probability of a December rate reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool (a big jump from last week) following dovish Fed comments from NY Fed president Williams Friday and Fed speakers Daly and Waller on Monday). With Monday’s rally, all three major indexes are now bumping up against their 50-day moving average and a big test for further gains will be whether they are able to decisively take out this technical resistance. Overnight gold prices surged, while Bitcoin prices gave back yesterday gains and Treasury yields are flat ahead of a heavy economic calendar today (PPI, Retail Sales, pending home sales and manufacturing). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 33 points to 48,659, the Shanghai Index gained 33 points to 3,870, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 178 points to 25,894. In Europe, the German DAX is down slightly at23,233, while the FTSE 100 rises 15 points to 9,550. UK stocks edged higher in choppy trading on Tuesday as investors awaited a highly anticipated budget this week, which is expected to include significant tax measures, while key U.S. economic data was also in focus.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 202.86 points, or 0.44%, to 46,448.27
• The Nasdaq Composite surged 598.92 points, or 2.69%, to 22,872.01
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 44.70 points, or 1.89% to 2,414.28

• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline M/M for September…est. +0.3%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline Y/Y for September…est. +2.7%
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core – Ex; Food & Energy M/M for September…est. +0.2%
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core – Ex; Food & Energy Y/Y for September…est. +2.7%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales M/M for September…est. +0.4%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M for September…est. +0.3%
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                  Monthly Home Prices M/M for September
• 9:00 AM ET                  CaseShiller 20-city index for September…est. +0.1%
• 10:00 AM ET                Business Inventories for August…est. +0.1%
• 10:00 AM ET                Consumer Confidence for October…est. 93.4 (prior 94.6)
• 10:00 AM ET                Pending Home Sales M/M for October…est. +0.5%
• 10:00 AM ET                Richmond Fed Manufacturing for November…prior (-4)
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ADSK AMBA ARWR BBAR CLSK DELL GES HPQ NTAP NTNX PD URBN WDAY WOOF ZS

• China has sold $32 billion of us government bonds in 3 months, cutting its holdings to $700.5 billion — the lowest in 17 years. China’s treasury stockpile has now fallen by over $600 billion since 2013.
• Taiwan welcomed President Trump’s decision not to publicly reference the island after his call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, describing it as the “best result” for Taipei – Bloomberg.
• San Francisco Fed President Daly signaled support for cutting rates at December’s meeting, arguing that a suddenly weaker, “vulnerable” labor market now poses a bigger risk than an inflation flare up; says the Fed can still return inflation to 2% without higher unemployment and that failing to do so would be a policy mistake.

• Central Garden (CENTA) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.09) vs. est. loss (-$0.20); Q4 revs $678M vs. est. $657.9M; sees FY26 EPS at $2.70 or better, vs. consensus $2.74, reflecting continued margin discipline, cost efficiencies and portfolio optimization; Capital spending is projected at approximately $50 million to $60 million.
• EasyJet (ESYJY) posts better-than-expected FY operating profit and upgraded its medium-term target for its holidays business after meeting the target early, but shares slipped with some disappointed by a near 3% drop in revenue per available seat kilometer and projected potential weakness in winter sales.
• Estee Lauder (EL) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Redburn and cut tgt to $70 from $83.
• European car sales rose 4.9% in October as electric cars outpaced petrol and diesel registrations, European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association data showed on Tuesday. Registrations at Volkswagen (VWAGY), Stellantis (STLA) and Renault (RNLSY) rose y/y by 6.5%, 4.6% and 10.6%, respectively. Tesla’s (TSLA) sales meanwhile dropped 48.5% from a year ago as BYD’s (BYDDF) sales jumped 206.8%
• Imax (IMAX) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs and raise tgt to $34 from $22 citing higher target multiples after including a takeover valuation methodology to reflect the growing strategic value of IMAX within the media industry for the upgrade.
• Kingfisher (KGFHY) shares climbed after the home improvement retailer raised its full-year profit guidance, to the range of 540M-570M pounds ($707-$747M), up from previous guidance of the upper end of 480M-540M pounds; underlying like-for-like sales rose 0.9% in Q3 to October 31.
• Nio Inc. (NIO) Q3 2025 total revenues rise 16.7% y/y, driven by 40.8% increase in deliveries to 87,071 and posted improved gross margin of 13.9% in Q3 2025, up from 10.7% last year; Q3 adj loss fell -38% y/y; said now expects Q4 deliveries of vehicles between 120,000-125,000 units and guides Q4 total revenues to be between RMB32,758 mln and RMB34,039 mln

• Blue Bird Corp. (BLBD) Q4 adj EPS $1.32 vs est $1.03, adj EBITDA $67.9Mm vs est $54.26Mm on sales $409.4Mm vs est $380.37Mm; guides FY revs $1.5B vs est $1.514B, adj EBITDA $220Mm vs est $218.4Mm.
• BP’s (BP) Olympic Pipeline system remained shut on Monday as the company and authorities investigated a fuel leak near Everett, Washington.
• Cummins (CMI) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS and raised tgt to $500 from $350 saying the truck cycle is bottoming in 2026 and the stock’s risk/reward is now more balanced.
• Eos Energy Enterprises Inc (EOSE) issues $600M convertible Senior notes due 2031.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) Q4 adj EBITDA $72.2Mm vs est $60.7Mm on revs $1.0B vs est $1.382B, gr mgn 13.7%; guides FY revs $3.2-3.6B vs est $3.17B and adj EBITDA $40-60Mm vs est $50.99Mm.
• Shell (SHEL) has agreed to buy 100,000 barrels of gasoline from Indonesia’s state energy firm Pertamina, the country’s deputy energy minister Yuliot Tanjung said on Tuesday.
• Woodward Inc. (WWD) Q4 EPS $2.23 vs est $1.87 on revs $995Mm vs est $934.5Mm; guides FY26 sales +7-12% vs est +9.8% and EPS $7.50-8.00 vs est $7.86.

• First Interstate BancSystem Inc. (FIBK) will replace Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Tuesday, December 2. Gildan Activewear (GIL) is acquiring Hanesbrands in a deal expected to be completed December 1
• UK Banks Barclays (BCS), Lloyd’s (LYG), NatWest Group (NWG) shares rose after reports that the banking sector would be spared when Treasury chief Rachel Reeves outlines her plans for tax increases and spending changes on Wednesday. The Financial Times said the sector would be spared from a tax raid.
• Upwork Inc. (UPWK) will replace Premier Inc. (PINC) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the open of trading on Friday, November 28. Patient Square Capital is acquiring Premier in a deal expected to be completed November 25, pending final closing conditions.
• Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) issues $400M subordinated notes due Nov 15, 2035.

• PTC Therapeutics Inc. (PTCT) will replace SanDisk (SNDK) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Friday, November 28.
• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN) and Sanofi (SNY) said that the European Commission has approved Dupixent (dupilumab) for the treatment of moderate-to-severe chronic spontaneous urticaria in adult and adolescent patients 12 years and above with inadequate response to histamine-1 antihistamines (H1AH) and who are naïve to anti-immunoglobulin E (IgE) therapy for CSU. Eligible patients can use Dupixent as a first-line targeted treatment option.

• Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q4 EPS $1.91 vs. est. $1.83; Q4 revs $1.42B vs. est. $1.38B; board authorizes new buyback program for up to $1.5B; sees Q1 EPS $1.95-$2.01 vs. est. $1.84 and guides Q1 revenue $1.53B-$1.55B vs. consensus $1.42B.
• SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) will replace The Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. (IPG) in the S&P 500, effective prior to the opening of trading on Friday, November 28.
• Semtech Corp. (SMTC) Q3 adj EPS $0.48 vs est $0.45 on sales $267Mm vs est $266.41Mm, adj gr mgn 53%; guides Q4 sales $268-278Mm vs est $265.98Mm, adj gr mgn 50.7-51.7%, adj Outperform mgn 17.0-18.6%, adj EBITDA $53-59Mm vs est $56.4Mm and adj EPS $0.40-0.46 vs est $0.43.
• Spotify (SPOT) will raise its U.S. subscription prices in the first quarter of next year, the Financial Times reported on Monday. SPOT said in August it would raise prices to 11.99 euros ($13.82) per month from 10.99 euros in markets including South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. But next year’s hike would be the first price increase in the U.S. since June 2024.
• Symbotic Inc. (SYM) Q4 adj EBITDA $49Mm vs est $48.18Mm on revs $618Mm vs est $604Mm; guides Q1 revs $610-630Mm vs est $611.53Mm and adj EBITDA $49-53Mm vs est $51.57Mm.
• Zoom Communications (ZM) Q3 adj EPS $1.52 vs. est. $1.44; Q3 revs $1.22B vs. est. $1.21B; Q3 operating margins 25.2% and adj operating margin 41.2%; raised stock buyback by $1B; sees Q4 EPS $1.48-$1.49 and revs $1.23B-$1.24B vs. est. $1.23B.