Early Look

Friday, October 1, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-153.00	0.46%	33,843
S&P 500	-17.00	0.44%	4,307
Nasdaq	-55.25	0.38%	14448,

 

 

U.S. equity futures extended declines Friday, following the worst month for tech stocks since the peak of the pandemic, as investors enter the final quarter of the year focused on inflation, energy markets and the Federal Reserve. S&P 500 drops 4.8% in September, its first monthly loss since January and biggest one-month drop since start of pandemic and lowest closing price since July 19th. Overall, for the month, the S&P fell 4.8%, the Dow fell 4.3% and the Nasdaq fell 5.3%. For the quarter (Q3), the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Dow fell 1.9% and the Nasdaq fell 0.4% following the precipitous September decline. Late last night, U.S. House Democratic leaders have delayed a planned vote on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that had been set for Thursday, bowing to party progressives who had demanded action on a larger social policy bill first. However, on a positive note, the U.S. government shutdown appears to be averted for now as Congress voted to continue funding the government through Dec. 3, backing the earlier bill out of the Senate and President Biden signed the measure before funding was to run out at midnight. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -681 points (2.31%) to 28,771, the Shanghai Index was closed and the Hang Seng Index was also closed. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -115 points to 15,150, while the FTSE 100 falls 1% or -70 points to 7,015. Crypto currencies surging for a second straight day as Bitcoin rises over 7% to $46,600, while Ethereum rises over 6.5% at $3,175 in another spike across the board. Positive vaccine news overnight as Merck (MRK) announced positive COVID-19 vaccine trial news.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -51.92 points, or 1,19%, to 4,307.54

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -546.80 points, or 1.59%, to 33,843.92

·     The Nasdaq Composite slumped -63.86 1.42 points, or 0.44%, to 14,448.58

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -20.94 points, or 0.94% to 2,204.37

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET         Personal Income MoM for Aug…est. +0.3%

·     8:30 AM ET         Personal Spending MoM for Aug

·     8:30 AM ET         PCE Price Index MoM for Aug

·     8:30 AM ET         PCE Price Index YoY for Aug

·     8:30 AM ET         Core PCE Price Index MoM for Aug…est. +0.2%

·     8:30 AM ET         Core PCE Price Index YoY for Aug…est. +3.6%

·     9:45 AM ET         Markit Manufacturing PMI for Sept-F

·     10:00 AM ET      Construction Spending MoM for Aug…est. +0.3%

·     10:00 AM ET      ISM Manufacturing Index for September…est. 59.6

·     10:00 AM ET      University of Michigan Confidence, Sept-Final…est. 71.0

·     1:00 PM EST       Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.63	74.40
Brent	-0.43	77.88
Gold	-2.60	1,755.90
EUR/USD	0.0001	1.1582
JPY/USD	-0.16	111.11
10-Year Note	-0.036	1.491%

 

 

World News

·     U.S. House Democratic leaders have delayed a planned vote on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that had been set for Thursday, bowing to party progressives who had demanded action on a larger social policy bill first. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said in a statement the House is expected to finish work on the infrastructure bill on Friday.

·     The Bank of Japan’s tankan survey released Friday shows signs that the recovery in the manufacturing sector will be hampered by supply shortages as the index measuring large manufacturers’ stocks of finished goods dropped to +3 in the September survey from +6 three months earlier. That marked the tightest level since 1989.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Lordstown Motors (RIDE) said it plans to sell its auto factory in Ohio to contract assembler Foxconn Technology Group for a purchase price of $230 million. Additionally, Foxconn plans to invest $50 million into the Ohio-based startup through a purchase of common stock.

·     Helbiz (HLBZ) rises after the transportation and media co announces CEO Salvatore Palella purchased units of PIPE (private investment in public equity) offering; On Aug 9, Palella bought 200,000 units of PIPE offering, consisting of 200,000 shares of Class A common and warrants to buy additional 200,000 shares at $11.50 per share

·     Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is said to plan up to $4B stock buyback

·     Coty (COTY) agrees to sell partial stake in Wella to KKR at a 50% valuation premium versus initial Wella sale in exchange for approximately half of the preferred Coty shares owned by KKR. Coty will continue to own 30.6% of Wella, with a $1.38b implied value for the retained stake

·     Li Auto (LI) delivered 7,094 Li ONEs in September 2021, up 102.5% Y/Y but fell 24.8% M/M from August’s shipments of 9,433 units; Q3 2021 deliveries rose 190% Y/Y and 42.9% Q/Q to 25,116 vehicles, exceeding recently revised guidance of ~24,500 units

·     Nio (NIO) delivered 10,628 vehicles in September 2021, an all-time high monthly record representing growth of 125.7% Y/Y and 80.7% M/M from August’s deliveries of 5,880 units; company shipped 24,439 vehicles Q3 2021, representing an increase of 100.2% Y/Y, exceeding the revised guidance of ~22,500 to 23,500 vehicles.

·     Tesla (TSLA) missed its deadline to deliver the Model X in Q3 2021, but a handful of units of the new electric SUVs were spotted in Fremont factory, Electrek reported. It gives some hope that deliveries might start soon https://bit.ly/2Y8L4ba 

·     XPeng (XPEV) recorded its highest-ever monthly deliveries in September 2021 of 10,412 Smart EVs, representing an increase of 199% Y/Y and a 44% increase over last month; also achieved a quarterly record of 25,666 deliveries in Q3 2021, up 48% Q/Q and 199% over prior year

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     ExxonMobil (XOM) says gas prices to boost 3q earnings by about $700M; says oil prices to boost 3q earnings by about $400M; says downstream margins to boost earnings by $600M

·     SunPower Corp. (SPWR) will replace Cimarex Energy Co. (XEC) in the S&P MidCap 400 index before trading begins on Oct. 5, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. S&P 500 constituent Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. is acquiring Cimarex Energy in a deal that is expected to close on Oct. 1.

·     PDC Energy Inc (PDCE) said anticipated total production near bottom of previous range of 190,000 to 195,000 boe per day for full-year 2021; sees FY 2021 oil production of 60,000 to 63,000 barrels per day, below previous range of 64,000 to 66,000 barrels per day

·     JPMorgan upgraded shares of Southwest Airlines (LUV) to Overweight from Neutral and Spirit airlines (SAVE) downgraded at JPMorgan while adjusting other price tgts in the space

 

Financials

·     Jefferies Financial (JEF) Q3 EPS $1.50 vs. est. $0.99; Q3 revs $1.65B vs. est. $1.74B

 

Healthcare

·     Merck (MRK) and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics announce results from their oral antiviral medicine molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801) from Phase 3 MOVe-OUT trial in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. STAT News notes that in the Merck study, a five-day course of the oral medicine was administered within five days of patients’ symptom onset; half of those patients had at least one risk factor associated with poor disease outcomes (shares of rival COVID-19 vaccine makers PFE, BNTX, MRNA falling on the news)

·     Exscientia (EXAI) has priced its upsized U.S. IPO of 13.85M ADSs (from ~13.1M ADSs), representing 13.85M ordinary shares at $22.00/ADS, for total gross proceeds of ~$304.7M.

·     Bicycle Therapeutics (BCYC) to present bt5528 interim phase i data at AACR-NCI-EORTC virtual international conference on molecular targets and cancer therapeutics

·     Haemonetics (HAE) said the FDA has approved a same-day discharge indication for its VASCADE MVP vascular closure system used in atrial fibrillation ablation.

·     Rockwell Medical (RMTI) files $200M mixed securities shelf

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Five9 (FIVN) announced that its $14.7B merger agreement with Zoom Video (ZM) has been terminated by mutual agreement. The agreement did not receive the requisite number of votes from Five9 shareholders to approve the merger with Zoom. Under the deal terms announced in July, Five9 shareholders would have received 0.5533 Zoom share for every Five9 share.

·     Walt Disney (DIS) and Scarlett Johansson have resolved their legal battle over her salary in the movie “Black Widow,” ending a two-month fight between the two parties

·     AMC Entertainment (AMC) said it exercised option to repurchase $35M of 15% cash / 17% payment-in-kind (PIK) Toggle First Lien Secured Notes due 2026

·     Alibaba (BABA) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James with a price target of $240, down from $300 saying while they remain positive on Alibaba long-term and believes valuation remains attractive, feels the recovery in shares could take longer given the recent slowing of ecommerce growth combined with continued regulatory actions across China