Early Look

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

U.S. S&P futures printed a fresh four-month low overnight, with the Spuz falling to 4,235.50 (below yesterday low of 4,251.25 – but still held its 200-day MA support 4,222) as global yields continue soaring with the 10-year yield hitting highs above 4.88% before paring back to 4.8% currently. Asian equities mirrored the futures selloff as the Nikkei dropped almost 2% and Hang Seng slipped 0.8%. Stocks and bonds are now both off their worst levels heading into private ADP monthly payroll data at 8:15 AM. Stocks are coming off a horrendous performance on Tuesday as the Dow and the Russell 2000 each flipped negative year-to-date amid the spike in yields and rising expectations of further Fed rate hikes. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -711 points or 2.28% to settle at 30,526, the Shanghai Index remained closed for holiday and the Hang Seng Index dropped -135 points to 17,195. In Europe, the German DAX is up 25 points to 15,110, while the FTSE 100 is up a few points at 7,474. In Washington, Kevin McCarthy was ousted as House speaker as eight conservative Republicans joined 208 Democrats to oust McCarthy as speaker in a 216-210 vote. The move came after McCarthy opted to avert triggering a partial government shutdown by introducing a stopgap funding bill that passed the House with more Democratic than Republican votes.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -58.94 points, or 1.37%, to 4,229.45.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -430.97 points, or 1.29%, to 33,002.38.

·     The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -248.31 points, or 1.87%, to 13,059.47.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -29.66 points, or 1.69% to 1,727.15.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:00 AM ET                  MBA Mortgage Applications Data

·     8:15 AM ET                  ADP Employment Index for September…est. 153K

·     9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Composite, Sept-F…prior 50.1

·     9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Services PMI, Sept-F…prior 50.2

·     10:00 AM ET                ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for September…est. 53.6

·     10:00 AM ET                Factory Orders M/M for August…est. +0.2%

·     10:00 AM ET                Durable Goods Orders M/M for August

·     10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

·     10:30 AM ET                Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Chicago Payments Symposium

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ANGO AYI HELE RPM

·     Earnings After the Close: ACCD RGP

Other Key Events:

·     Deutsche Bank 31st Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 10/2-10/4, in Scottsdale, AZ

·     Mizuho 4th Annual REIT Conference 2023, 10/3-10/4, in New York

·     Roth MKM PV CellTech Conference, 10/3-10/4, in San Francisco, CA

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Cal-Maine (CALM) Q1 EPS $0.02 vs est. $0.33 on sales $459.3Mm vs est. $479.52Mm; Net average selling price for specialty eggs increased 8.4% quarter-over-quarter; Conventional egg net average selling price per dozen was $1.241 for Q1 compared with $2.368 y/y.

·     Helen of Troy (HELE) Q2 EPS $1.74 vs. est. $1.64; Q2 revs $491.6M vs. est. $485M; reiterates full year outlook for this fiscal year; now estimates lower total one-time pre-tax restructuring charges for project Pegasus of about $60 mln to $65 mln over duration of plan.

·     The European Commission’s investigation into Chinese subsidies for battery-electric car makers in the country will last no longer than 13 months, according to a document – DJ.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     In Heavy duty trucker data (CMI, PCAR), Class 8 Truck North American orders rose 5.1% m/m in Sept to 31,100, according to FTR preliminary data, the highest in 10 months and the biggest monthly rise since Sept. 30, 2022; was down -45% y/y.

·     Acuity Brands (AYI) Q4 adj EPS $3.97 v. est. $3.68; Q4 revs $1.01B vs. est. $1.02B; A4 adj operating margin 16.1%, vs. est. 15.4%; said during quarter, we recognized pre-tax charges of $35.5 mln that affected net income.

·     LyondellBasell (LYB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup.

·     RPM International (RPM) Q1 adj EPS $1.64 vs. est. $1.55; Q1 revs $2.01B vs. est. $1.97B; backs FY24 sales growth mind-single digits and sees Q2 sales growth low-single digits.

·     Trinity Industries (TRN) announced that the Company delivered 4,325 new railcars in Q3; Deliveries were 685 units below the Company’s third quarter projection due to the closing of the U.S.-Mexico border by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency.

Financials

·     MarketAxess (MKTX) announces Q3 stats: Total credit average daily volume (“ADV”) of $11.2 billion, up 1.7%; U.S. high-grade ADV of $5.2 billion, up 1.1% with estimated market share of 20.0%. U.S. high-grade estimated market ADV increased 6.4%; U.S. high-yield ADV of $1.3 billion, down 20.4%; $27.5 billion in total portfolio trading volume, up 11.1% from $24.7 billion in 3Q22.

·     The Bank of Japan bought 70.1 billion yen ($470.31 million) of exchange-traded funds (ETF) on Wednesday, data from the central bank showed, stepping into the market after Japanese stocks slumped amid a spike in U.S. Treasury yields – Reuters.

Healthcare

·     Natera (NTRA) announced that the U.S. Supreme Court denied CareDx’s (CDNA) petition for certiorari concerning a patent infringement lawsuit brought by CareDx against Natera.

·     Regenxbio (RGNX) announced additional interim safety data and initial efficacy data from the Phase I/II AFFINITY DUCHENNE trial of RGX-202 for the treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD).

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Apple (AAPL) downgraded to SW from OW at Keybanc based on: 1) valuation, as AAPL is trading near ATH multiples and a large premium to the Nasdaq vs history; 2) U.S. sales are likely to struggle based on KEYB’s KFLD, its view of U.S. upgrade rates, and initial U.S. iPhone promotions from U.S. carriers being restrictive; 3) Int’l growth expectations for reacceleration may be aggressive, in its view; and 4) ests. appear full from top- and bottom-line perspectives.

·     Intel Corp. (INTC) announces intent to operate Programmable Solutions Group as standalone business under leadership of Sandra Rivera; positions PSG to compete in FPGA market more effectively; ongoing strategic alignment with Intel drives value creation for both companies.